This is part 4 of a 33-part series in this blog, designed to give you all the information you need to know about every conference's tournament, and the postseason prospects of every single team in the conference.
Final standings:
North Florida 12-2
FGCU 11-3
USC Upstate 8-6
Northern Kentucky 7-7
Lipscomb 7-7
Kennesaw St 4-10
Jacksonville 4-10
Stetson 3-11
Conference tournament format: A straight-up 8 team tournament, but played at the campus of the higher seed in every single game. Quarterfinals Tuesday March 3, semifinals Thursday March 5, finals Sunday March 8.
Bracket:
1) North Florida vs. 8) Stetson
4) Northern Kentucky vs. 4) Lipscomb
2) FGCU vs. 7) Jacksonville
3) USC Upstate vs. 6) Kennesaw St
The stakes:
First things first: I believe Northern Kentucky is still postseason ineligible because of D-1 transition, so let's put a pin in that thought if they upset UNF.
The winner of this conference is very likely headed to the 16 line. There's no analysis that can really be done here. North Florida would be borderline for getting shoved into Dayton, FGCU would probably avoid Dayton, and the other 5 would definitely be in Dayton.
FGCU is the only one that could make the 15 line, depending on how many other top teams get upset in their tournaments. They actually went out and got reasonable wins (N-South Dakota St, N-UMass, UCSB), but the committee has a track record of blindly using RPI and conference rank instead of actually looking at these profiles.
UNF has the NIT bid as a backup; FGCU and USC Upstate are well above .500, so the CBI or CIT may come knocking (everyone else is well under .500). The A-Sun tracks as the 4th worst conference by conference RPI, so this shouldn't be too tough a conference to figure out.
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