Tuesday, January 20, 2015

The way-too-early NIT/CBI/CIT projections

It is obviously way too early to actually project what teams will make these tournaments, but here's the purpose of this post:  to give you an idea of where your team stands.  To know how close you are to the NIT bubble.  To know where to stand in relation to the other teams across the country.

Let's start with the NIT.  I listed the following teams as the last 14 out of the NCAA tournament:
LSU, BYU, Washington, Pittsburgh, Wyoming, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Alabama, Temple, UConn, UCLA, Florida, TCU, Davidson

In an average year, there are 22 at-large bids available in the NIT.  This means 8 more teams can make the NIT.  By my eyes, I would give those 8 spots to:

Illinois, Michigan, Bowling Green, Boise St, Louisiana Tech, Wofford, Loyola(Chi), UMass

This does leave out teams like Ole Miss with a shiny RPI, Memphis...and a few other power conference teams with winning records.  I do think many of them will fall by the wayside, and I wanted to leave room for a few other teams.  For example, I've put MVC #3, MAC #2, CUSA #2, and a couple A-10 teams in, which I think will be reflective of the final bracket.  Wofford also makes this field as an at-large, but Yale and Eastern Washington don't.  Some random reflections:

1) For the SEC, they literally have 8 or 9 teams on the bubble.  There's not enough room in the NIT for all of the teams that don't make the NCAA tournament.  A couple of them will likely get jobbed in March.
2) The MAC is loaded, but if they cannibalize themselves, they might not even get an at-large bid to the NIT this year.  It's going to be tough to pile up the wins necessary to make it.
3) For the MVC and WCC, it's clear to me that outside of the big 5 (Gonz, StMary's, BYU, WSU, UNI)...it's going to be tough for anyone to get in a meaningful tournament.
4) Conferences I expect to pack the NIT field:  MWC, A-10, SEC, maybe the Pac-12

Some random observations about what I feel the CBI/CIT fields could look like:
1) With so many decent MAC teams this year, and with the mid-pack of the WCC and MVC struggling...I expect the CBI and CIT to be dominated by these 3 conferences.  Dominated.
2) Big West is having a nice year.  If the teams that played brutal schedules can get over .500, they'll make these fields.  However, with so few western conferences and the WAC and Big Sky struggling to even get teams eligible for the CBI/CIT...there's going to either have to be a commitment to travel, or bad luck in not making these fields.  I'm looking at you two, Hawaii and UC Davis.
3) The Horizon is a bit weird this year.  Green Bay will not be NIT-worthy this year unless they win the conference, obviously.  Valpo/CSU/GB is a decent top 3 and they'll all be in the postseason, but no one else is relevant.
4) The MAAC is way down this year.  Their 2nd and 3rd place teams will probably end up in the CBI/CIT just through attrition, but none of them are anywhere near the NIT except for Iona.
5) When will the Sun Belt ever get their act together?  I expected so much more from Louisiana-Lafayette and Georgia St.  I suppose they'll make the CBI/CIT, but even now at this point they're on that bubble.
6) Some other teams off to good starts with good computer profiles, that figure to be EIEIO locks barring a collapse:  William & Mary, High Point, Stony Brook, Stephen F Austin, Yale.

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