Monday, January 19, 2015

Bubble Watch, part 4: Pac-12

It's time to take inventory of there all 351 teams in the country stand.  Over a dozen or so posts today, we'll break down the resumes that matter in typical Bubble Watch style.

The Lockbox:
Arizona (16-2) (4-1) RPI 6 SoS 28
Vital signs:  5-2 R/N, non-con SoS 44, 3-0 vs. Top 50, 7-1 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  Gonzaga, Utah, N-SDSU
Bad losses:  @Oregon St, @UNLV?
I do wish they had an an elite road win, just to buffer the argument for a 1 seed.  Also the couple of marginal losses might lessen the margin of error if they do want that 1 seed.  But for now, the profile has clear and obvious strengths and nothing too concerning.

Utah (14-3) (4-1) RPI 11 SoS 22
Vital signs:  3-3 R/N, non-con SoS 28, 2-3 vs. Top 50, 4-3 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  Wichita, @BYU, UCLA?
Bad losses:   all 3 losses on the road inside the top 25
Every loss is a "signature loss", they have the lynchpin over Wichita, their profile is rock-solid.

Bubble:
Stanford (13-4) (4-1) RPI 26 SoS 66
Vital signs:  4-4 R/N, non-con SoS 100, 3-2 vs. Top 50, 4-3 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  @Texas, Washington, UConn?
Bad losses:  @DePaul, oof
They've probably snuck ahead of everyone else for 3rd in the Pac-12 pecking order.  One key road win at Texas gives them one trump card to play over other bubble teams.  All the vital signs are healthy.  In reality, they're a semi-lock.

Washington (13-4) (2-3) RPI 49 SoS 90
Vital signs:  5-2 R/N, non-con SoS 162, 2-1 vs. Top 50, 6-2 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  SDSU, N-Oklahoma
Bad losses:  Wazzu at home
The good:  4 neutral site wins, including EWU, LBSU, and UTEP.  The bad:  the non-con SoS is marginal.  More good:  6-2 vs. the Top 100.  All and all, it adds to easily being in the tournament for now, but this profile is very susceptible to weakness.  Bad losses will hurt this profile exponentially, and they could use a few more quality wins to buffer up.

UCLA (11-7) (3-2) RPI 65 SoS 36
Vital signs:  2-5 R/N, non-con SoS 51, 1-5 vs. Top 50, 2-7 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  Stanford, LBSU?
Bad losses:  @Colorado and @Alabama are the worst
They're barely in this category, and are lucky not to be demoted.  So many "signature losses" (UK, Gonzaga, Utah, etc) are keeping them breathing for now, because that 11-7 record feels more like 11-3 once you remove the unwinnable games.  Still, they pretty clearly need to establish they're clearly better than the other bubble team in the conference to have a chance.  Because they're behind them in the non-con portion.

NIT watch:
Oregon St (12-5) (3-2) RPI 88 SoS 137 - yes, they beat Arizona and have a shiny record.  However, that's their only top 100 win, they have 3 sub-100 losses, and have a non-con SoS of 302.  Come on.
Oregon (12-6) (2-3) RPI 102 SoS 84 - you'd think a 12-6 record would come with better resume support.  Instead, they have one quality win N-Illinois and pedestrian vital signs.
California (11-7) (1-4) RPI 119 SoS 87 - they've fallen off a cliff.  If they rescue themselves, they have wins over U-Dub, SYracuse, and Wyoming to use on the climb back up.
Colorado (9-8) (2-3) RPI 85 SoS 30 - what a disappointment.

No postseason projected:
Washington St (9-8) (3-2)
USC (9-8) (1-4)
Arizona St (9-9) (1-4)

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