It's time to take inventory of there all 351 teams in the country stand. Over a dozen or so posts today, we'll break down the resumes that matter in typical Bubble Watch style.
The Lockbox:
Villanova (17-1) (4-1) RPI 5 SoS 25
Vital signs: 7-1 R/N, non-con SoS 59, 4-1 vs. Top 50, 9-1 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: N-VCU, Butler, @St John's
Bad losses: no
Maybe not quite good enough for the 1 line (need a higher-end signature win). Plenty good enough for the 2.
Seton Hall (13-4) (3-2) RPI 17 SoS 37
Vital signs: 5-3 R/N, non-con SoS 96, 3-4 vs. Top 50, 4-4 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Nova, St John's, GWU
Bad losses: all inside the RPI Top 35
Probably a bit aggressive calling them a lock, and I can easily get burned here. But for now I think they belong a tier above the other teams in this conference, and this is how I'm showing it.
Bubble:
Providence (14-5) (4-2) RPI 23 SoS 17
Vital signs: 5-3 R/N, non-con SoS 26, 3-2 vs. Top 50, 8-2 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: @Butler, G'town, N-Notre Dame
Bad losses: Brown, @BC
Those two bad losses are exactly what's keeping Provi from the lockbox. As long as they cut those out of their diet, they'll be fine, as they already have a better than average base of quality wins to work with.
Georgetown (12-5) (4-2) RPI 28 SoS 14
Vital signs: 3-4 R/N, non-con SoS 17, 2-5 vs. Top 50, 3-5 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Butler, N-Indiana, N-Florida?
Bad losses: all inside the RPI Top 35
Almost even with Seton Hall, but they're missing an extra quality win or two at this stage to call them a lock. Again, they should be fine, but are vulnerable if they do get on a losing streak. The SoS will be a good buffer to save them if needed.
Butler (13-6) (3-3) RPI 14 SoS 8
Vital signs: 5-5 R/N, non-con SoS 50, 5-5 vs. Top 50, 5-6 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: N-UNC, @Seton Hall, N-G'town
Bad losses: none, really
Great SoS. Their only issue is that they've lost to G'town and Provi, two fellow teams right around them int he pecking order. It's tough for me to elevate Butler past them for the time being. They're close to a lock. Another concern - while no losses are bad and some are a result of a tough schedule, the raw number of them could add up to something troublesome in March.
Xavier (12-6) (3-3) RPI 34 SoS 21
Vital signs: 2-6 R/N, non-con SoS 72, 2-2 vs. Top 50, 5-4 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Seton Hall, G'town, Bama
Bad losses: @DePaul, @Auburn
Those bad losses have X a step behind the top 5 resumes in this league. Really, outside of those losses, their resume is way more than enough to be safe, so I expect them to be fine.
St John's (12-5) (1-4) RPI 40 SoS 13
Vital signs: 3-3 R/N, non-con SoS 66, 1-4 vs. Top 50, 5-4 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: @Provi, @Syracuse, St Mary's
Bad losses: @DePaul
The problem with 7 great teams in a 10 team league - are there enough wins to go around? There might not be. And early on, it's St John's drawing the short stick. Their best work was in the non-con. They have plenty of time to rally back and be safe, and they ARE safely in the field right now. But someone, one of these 7 teams (or maybe 2 of them) will fall off the boards. And the Johnnies are most vulnerable of the 7 right now.
No postseason projected:
DePaul (10-9) (4-2)
Marquette (10-7) (2-3)
Creighton (9-10) (0-6) - none of these teams will hold onto their .500 overall record. DePaul in particular is throwing a wrench in the conference right now. Read what I said above about St John's and the raw math of the number of wins available in the conference. DePaul has already gobbled 4 of them up. Not good for the conference. Actually, it's near-catastrophic for the conference. DePaul is ruining everything.
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