Monday, January 19, 2015

Bubble Watch, part 10: WCC/MVC

It's time to take inventory of there all 351 teams in the country stand.  Over a dozen or so posts today, we'll break down the resumes that matter in typical Bubble Watch style.

Time to start doubling and tripling up these conferences to get these all in.

WCC

The Lockbox:
Gonzaga (18-1) (7-0) RPI 7 SoS 55
Vital signs:  9-1 R/N, non-con SoS 13, 4-1 vs. Top 50, 5-1 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  SMU, N-St John's, N-Georgia, on and on...
Bad losses:  none
How high can they go?  Very, but the 1 line for a team whose signature win is SMU?  Possible, but it'll likely depend on what other contenders do.  Remember Wichita last year?  Part of what made them a 1 seed was other contenders falling by the wayside.  Same thing with Gonzaga this year, IMO.

Bubble:
BYU (13-6) (5-3) RPI 46 SoS 47
Vital signs: 5-3 R/N, non-con SoS 21, 1-3 vs. Top 50, 3-5 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  Stanford, UMass, LBSU?
Bad losses:  Pepperdine at home
Smells like a bubble to me.  They did lean out (and lose) to SDSU and Utah, among others.  Still, maybe one or two too many losses when your 2nd best win is UMass.  Trouble.

St Mary's (15-3) (7-0) RPI 62 SoS 145
Vital signs:  4-1 R/N, non-con SoS 150, 1-1 vs. Top 50, 2-2 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  BYU, Northeastern?
Bad losses:  Northern Arizona at home
The SoS and quality of opponent are just too marginal.  Their bubble hopes come down to a 4-game season against Gonzaga and BYU.  The good news is they've got one of the 4 in their pocket already.  The bad news is this type of situation almost never ends well.

EIEIO watch:
Pepperdine (12-6) (5-2) RPI 133 SoS 201 - outside of the Big 3, I'm not sure anyone besides Pepperdine even finishes above .500.  A bit unusual for the WCC this year.

No postseason projected:
Santa Clara (9-10) (3-4)
Portland (11-8) (2-5)
Pacific (10-9) (2-5)
San Francisco (8-11) (2-5)
San Diego (9-11) (2-6)
Loyola Marymount (5-14) (1-6)

MVC

The Lockbox:
Wichita St (16-2) (6-0) RPI 10 SoS 42
Vital signs:  7-2 R/N, non-con SoS 6, 2-2 vs. Top 50, 6-2 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  Seton Hall, Tulsa?  Alabama?
Bad losses:  none
Look at the non-con SoS, and try to figure out how high you want to move them up the S-Curve.

Northern Iowa (16-2) (5-1) RPI 21 SoS 110
Vital signs:  7-2 R/N, non-con SoS 83, 1-1 vs. Top 50, 4-2 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  N-Iowa, @SFA?
Bad losses:  perhaps @Evansville
They should be fine, splitting their two signature games (losing @VCU).  All the vital signs looks average-to-good, so it's more about bad-loss avoidance at this stage.

NIT watch:
Loyola(Chi) (13-5) (3-3) RPI 77 SoS 109 - N-Boise is the best win, which just isn't enough.  Need to get 2 off of WSU/UNI to have a chance.

EIEIO watch:
Evansville (12-5) (2-3) RPI 93 SoS 123
Illinois St (11-7) (3-3) RPI 111 SoS 96

No postseason projected:
Indiana St (9-9) (5-1)
Missouri St (8-10) (2-4)
Southern Illinois (8-11) (1-5)
Bradley (6-13) (1-5)
Drake (4-14) (1-5)

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