It's time to take inventory of there all 351 teams in the country stand. Over a dozen or so posts today, we'll break down the resumes that matter in typical Bubble Watch style.
The Lockbox:
Kansas (14-3) (3-1) RPI 3 SoS 1
Vital signs: 5-3 R/N, non-con SoS 2, 5-2 vs. Top 50, 8-3 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Utah, @Baylor, @G'town
Bad losses: @Temple if you're hoping for a 1 seed
Brilliant SoS numbers as usual. The conference will supply copious amounts of signature win chances. Expect them to remain in the conversion for a 1 seed even with 6 or 7 losses.
Iowa St (13-3) (3-1) RPI 15 SoS 48
Vital signs: 4-3 R/N, non-con SoS 158, 5-2 vs. Top 50, 6-2 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Kansas, @WVU, Arky
Bad losses: N-South Carolina
I see a couple dings if they want to compete for a 1 seed, but this feels like a 2, 3, or 4 waiting to happen.
Bubble:
West Virginia (15-3) (3-2) RPI 16 SoS 54
Vital signs: 9-1 R/N, non-con SoS 132, 3-3 vs. Top 50, 4-3 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Okla, N-NC State, N-UConn?
Bad losses: home to LSU?
I probably could and should move them to the lockbox, but I can't bring myself to it yet. Look at those 9 R/N wins. 6 neutral wins! To be fair, a few of them (VMI, Marshall, George Mason) are valueless. On the other hand, they are non-home wins. The only they need are a couple of high-end wins, and they'll be fine.
Baylor (13-4) (2-3) RPI 18 SoS 32
Vital signs: 4-3 R/N, non-con SoS 105, 2-2 vs. Top 50, 4-4 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Iowa St...Stephen F Austin? N-Memphis? yikes
Bad losses: @K-State, I suppose
I think they'll be fine as long as they win enough swing games in the conference. There's so many quality win chances available. They need some depth in the resume, but they'll have every chance to get it in conference play. Nothing in the profile seems disturbing to me.
Texas (13-4) (2-2) RPI 22 SoS 20
Vital signs: 4-2 R/N, non-con SoS 40, 2-4 vs. Top 50, 4-4 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: WVU, N-Iowa, @UConn?
Bad losses: all 4 inside RPI Top 35
Another profile that should easily make the field until they slip pretty badly. However, the Big 12 might be so brutal that the slip is more likely than you think.
Oklahoma (12-5) (3-2) RPI 24 SoS 10
Vital signs: 4-4 R/N, non-con SoS 49, 5-3 vs. Top 50, 6-4 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: N-Butler, @Texas, @UCLA?, some other stuff
Bad losses: @Creighton looks bad now...home to K-State too
Rinse and repeat what I said above. Clearly a tournament team right now, but there are so many land mines in conference play. Impossible to really evaluate all these teams correctly when so many swing games are awaiting.
Oklahoma St (12-5) (2-3) RPI 33 SoS 27
Vital signs: 4-4 R/N, non-con SoS 112, 2-4 vs. Top 50, 5-4 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Texas, @Tulsa, @Memphis?
Bad losses: @South Carolina
I think they're about a half-step behind the 4 teams listed above them. However, they're still fine. The big concern? If they're a half-step behind those 4 teams, how many times can they lose to them and still be okay? Not sure what the answer is. 9-9 should be good enough in conference play, but I'm not sure they can get there.
NIT watch:
Kansas St (11-7) (4-1) RPI 95 SoS 64 - they earn a courtesy look for their fast conference start (they beat Baylor and Oklahoma as part of it). However, all the non-con results (signature win: N-Texas A&M) suggest they have little to no chance. The good news is the conference is so loaded that if they stay in this race all season, they'll backdoor their way into the field. But I'm not buying it yet.
TCU (14-3) (1-3) RPI 128 SoS 303 - they have one top 100 win (a decent one at Ole Miss, but still). They played what is currently ranked the 4th easiest non-con schedule in the entire country. Pass.
No postseason projected:
Texas Tech (10-8) (0-5)
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