It's time to take inventory of there all 351 teams in the country stand. Over a dozen or so posts today, we'll break down the resumes that matter in typical Bubble Watch style.
The Lockbox:
Wisconsin (16-2) (4-1) RPI 9 SoS 26
Vital signs: 7-1 R/N, non-con SoS 24, 3-1 vs. Top 50, 6-2 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: N-Okla, N-G'town....Buffalo?
Bad losses: @Rutgers
They have 1 seed talent, but they don't have a 1-seed list of quality wins. Big 10 play will help fix that, but I think it's probably a better idea to have them a half-step behind a 1 seed for now.
Maryland (17-2) (5-1) RPI 13 SoS 60
Vital signs: 5-1 R/N, non-con SoS 135, 4-1 vs. Top 50, 8-2 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: N-Iowa St, @Okla St, H/A sweep of Michigan St
Bad losses: @Illinois
One of the big surprises. The non-con SoS might prevent them from reaching their seed ceiling, but this is probable protected seed territory. The challenge will be staying well above the bubble fray in this league, which figured to be large this year.
Bubble:
Iowa (13-5) (4-1) RPI 43 SoS 38
Vital signs: 3-3 R/N, non-con SoS 79, 1-4 vs. Top 50, 4-5 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: @UNC, H/A sweep of Ohio St
Bad losses: not really, when N-Syracuse is the worst
A bit short of a lock. Good signature wins to lean on if things go haywire. No real red flags. Good start to the conference.
Indiana (14-4) (4-1) RPI 44 SoS 81
Vital signs: 3-3 R/N, non-con SoS 154, 2-3 vs. Top 50, 5-4 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: N-Butler, Ohio St, SMU
Bad losses: Eastern Washington isn't as bad as originally thought
Not a bad collection of wins at this time for year for a bubble team, but one marginal loss plus one marginal non-con SoS leaves them a bit hanging. They really can't afford to slip too much, but the good start in conference buys them a couple losses later if they need them.
Michigan St (12-6) (3-2) RPI 37 SoS 12
Vital signs: 4-4 R/N, non-con SoS 58, 2-5 vs. Top 50, 3-5 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: @Iowa, Indiana
Bad losses: Texas Southern!
The SoS isn't quite as strong as I thought it would be, and not getting a result in the non-con that they can lean on will hurt them. Only 3 top 100 wins, although plenty more are available in conference play. They won't be able to sneak in with just 7 or 8 conference wins in March, so they will need to keep pace with everyone else to make sure they're in.
Ohio St (14-5) (3-3) RPI 58 SoS 71
Vital signs: 1-4 R/N, non-con SoS 185, 0-5 vs. Top 50, 4-5 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Illinois? @Minnesota?
Bad losses: all are inside the top 50
The non-con SoS hurts. The 0 Top 50 wins hurt. What really hurts is 3 losses to Indiana and Iowa. Those are "pecking order" losses that put OSU behind the 8-ball. This team is most definitely not safe and need to show they can beat tournament teams...and a couple of those chances are already by the boards. Tread carefully.
Illinois (12-7) (2-4) RPI 64 SoS 62
Vital signs: 4-6 R/N, non-con SoS 115, 2-2 vs. Top 50, 3-5 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Maryland, N-Baylor
Bad losses: @Nebraska? N-Oregon?
The Maryland win keeps them in this column for now, because without it, I don't think I can support an argument for them being on the bubble. They have work to do, but they're in a good conference for providing resume-building opportunities. The R/N record isn't too bad, all things given.
NIT watch:
Michigan (11-7) (4-2) RPI 89 SoS 40 - not ready to put them back on the bubble, but a reasonable start to conference play has them breathing. They've got awful home losses, so the hill is hard to climb. But it's possible.
Minnesota (12-7) (1-5) RPI 98 SoS 73 - conference play has pushed them off the board for now. There's no substance to the resume.
Purdue (11-7) (3-2) RPI 99 SoS 68 - beating NC State and BYU, as well as the two teams listed right above them, leave them here for now. Way too much work left to do to get all the way to and through the bubble, though.
Nebraska (10-7) (2-3) RPI 120 SoS 91 - one home win over Cincy does not a profile make.
No postseason projected:
Rutgers (10-9) (2-4)
Northwestern (10-8) (1-4)
Penn St (12-6) (0-5)
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