Monday, January 19, 2015

Bubble Watch, part 7: the American

It's time to take inventory of there all 351 teams in the country stand.  Over a dozen or so posts today, we'll break down the resumes that matter in typical Bubble Watch style.

The AAC is still a potential disaster waiting to happen.

The Lockbox:
lolno

Bubble:
SMU (14-4) (5-1) RPI 20 SoS 43
Vital signs:  3-3 R/N, non-con SoS 25, 0-4 vs. Top 50, 5-4 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  @Temple...@Michigan?  Wyoming?
Bad losses:  all are reasonable
No high-end wins is the catch with this profile.  All the other vital signs seem fine.  And losing @Cincy and @Indiana is fine...but if @Temple is your signature win, THEN it isn't fine.  They're not safe, although I have to imagine they'd have to melt down a bit to miss the tournament.

Cincinnati (12-5) (3-2) RPI 32 SoS 15
Vital signs:  2-4 R/N, non-con SoS 14, 3-2 vs. Top 50, 6-4 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  SDSU, SMU, @NC State
Bad losses:  @Nebraska, @Memphis
I came pretty close to locking them, just because the high-end wins are good enough and the SoS is definitely good enough.  I would've preferred maybe one less road loss, but that's nitpicking.  The issue will be that building on this resume won't be easy in this dumpster fire of a conference, and it's still a bit incomplete.

Tulsa (12-5) (5-0) RPI 42 SoS 83
Vital signs:  5-2 R/N, non-con SoS 69, 0-3 vs. Top 50, 2-3 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  @Temple, UConn
Bad losses:  @Oral Bob
Absolutely horrendous catastrophic loss:  SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA STATE.
By leading the AAC, and having decent computer numbers, they've wedged their way onto the back end of this list.  But when I need to invent a new category just to highlight something you did wrong, you're a long long way away from the bubble.

Temple (12-7) (3-3) RPI 56 SoS 33
Vital signs:  4-5 R/N, non-con SoS 53, 1-5 vs. Top 50, 5-5 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  Kansas, @UConn
Bad losses:  @St Joe's, N-UNLV?
Came pretty close to dumping them from the bubble list.  Giving it just a bit more time.  That's the power of a signature win.  However, they've already lost to SMU, Cincy and Tulsa, and needs to even those season series to have a chance in March.

UConn (9-7) (2-2) RPI 74 SoS 34
Vital signs:  4-4 R/N, non-con SoS 32, 2-5 vs. Top 50, 3-7 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  N-Dayton, Cincy, @Florida
Bad losses:  Yale, Temple?
Came VERY close to dumping them from this section.  In the end, they have a couple good wins to lean on, so they stay here, barely.  No terrible losses does and a great SoS help.  But this is tenuous, at best.

NIT watch:
Memphis (11-6) (4-2) RPI 91 SoS 57 - too far off the pace.  They're basically UConn with slightly worse signature wins and bad losses.

EIEIO watch:
Tulane (13-5) (4-2) RPI 129 SoS 222 - look at the SoS and understand why they're not higher.  Thank you.

No postseason projected:
Central Florida (9-8) (2-4)
East Carolina (8-10) (1-4)
South Florida (7-11) (1-4)
Houston (7-10) (0-6)

No comments: