The Lockbox:
Virginia (17-0) (5-0) RPI 2 SoS 6
Vital signs: 8-0 R/N, non-con SoS 20, 5-0 vs. Top 50, 11-0 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: @VCU, @Maryland, @Notre Dame
Bad losses: nah
It's pretty clearly a great resume with three major road wins and incredible depth. This profile can absorb a couple losses and still pretty clearly be a 1 seed.
Duke (15-2) (3-2) RPI 8 SoS 19
Vital signs: 7-1 R/N, non-con SoS 36, 5-1 vs. Top 50, 7-2 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: @Wisconsin, @Louisville, N-Stanford
Bad losses: I suppose home to Miami
Duke's SoS isn't quite as good as we're usually accustomed to. The losses to NC State and Miami aren't terrible, but the competition for the 1 line is stiff and Virginia has pulled away from them. They do have two important signature wins in their hip pocket, though.
North Carolina (14-4) (4-1) RPI 12 SoS 4
Vital signs: 7-2 R/N, non-con SoS 12, 2-4 vs. Top 50, 9-4 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Louisville, @NC State, a slew of neutral site wins over good teams
Bad losses: N-Butler? home to Iowa?
Seeing just 2-4 vs. the Top 50 might mean a 2 seed or better is out of reach. Other than that, this is your standard profile of a 3 or 4 seed, no?
Louisville (15-3) (3-2) RPI 29 SoS 59
Vital signs: 4-1 R/N, non-con SoS 103, 1-3 vs. Top 50, 6-3 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: N-Indiana, Ohio St
Bad losses: all 3 losses are inside the RPI Top 12, so, uh, no
The problem with this profile is a lack of depth. If they can pick off a game against the 3 teams above them, great. Also of importance: piling up wins of secondary strength. The numbers DO look pedestrian, and the committee, if they wanted to get tough, could give them a seed lower than you'd expect.
Notre Dame (17-2) (5-1) RPI 38 SoS 126
Vital signs: 4-1 R/N, non-con SoS 318, 2-2 vs. Top 50, 7-2 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: @UNC, Michigan St, Miami?
Bad losses: none
Many are calling them a lock. I'll agree for now, but it's tentative. Just look at that non-con SoS. That's danger zone. They can NOT afford to slide to something like 10-8 in the conference. Be careful. The good news is the win at UNC is a good trump card to hold. Many times, teams with bad SoS numbers like this don't have that trump card.
Bubble:
North Carolina St (13-6) (4-2) RPI 36 SoS 7
Vital signs: 1-3 R/N, non-con SoS 34, 1-5 vs. Top 50, 6-6 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: Duke, Pitt? Tennessee?
Bad losses: probably @Purdue...home to Wofford isn't as bad as you think
This is a case where the entire profile is built on one signature win. Now mind you, it's good enough to get them in for now. But they will need to build depth in the profile in the coming weeks, preferably in the department of road wins. The SoS will also help them.
Miami (12-5) (2-2) RPI 55 SoS 52
Vital signs: 6-2 R/N, non-con SoS 174, 1-3 vs. Top 50, 3-4 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: @Duke, Illinois? @Florida?
Bad losses: EKU at home...Green Bay at home?
The big draw (besides the W @Duke) is the 6 road/neutral wins already. That includes Florida, Charlotte, Akron...none are great, but none are terrible either. If they can pick off a game or two more against the top 5, they should be good to go, actually, barring a collapse in the rest of the resume.
Syracuse (13-5) (4-1) RPI 57 SoS 76
Vital signs: 3-4 R/N, non-con SoS 77, 1-2 vs. Top 50, 4-4 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: N-Iowa, @GaTech?
Bad losses: that neutral site one to Cal doesn't look so hot...neither does @Michigan
I don't have much to say here. Your pretty standard bubble profile - decent on the road, decent signature win, a couple marginal losses, reasonable vital signs...we'll see.
Pittsburgh (13-5) (3-2) RPI 69 SoS 99
Vital signs: 3-4 R/N, non-con SoS 166, 0-3 vs. Top 50, 2-4 vs. Top 100
Signature wins: GaTech. oy
Bad losses: @Hawaii, Clemson
This is clearly behind the 8 teams above them. Gotta get to work. No other explanation needed.
NIT watch:
Clemson (10-7) (2-3) RPI 75 SoS 41 - they've actually got a few useful wins (Arkansas, N-LSU, Syracuse, @Pitt). They also lost to N-Gardner Webb and Winthrop. Keep an eye on if they start to pile up more signature wins, but for now, discard.
No postseason projected:
Florida St (9-9) (1-4)
Wake Forest (9-9) (1-4)
Boston College (8-8) (0-4)
Virginia Tech (8-9) (0-4)
Georgia Tech (9-8) (0-5)
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