Monday, January 19, 2015

Bubble Watch, part 13: southern conferences

Time to take quick glances at the conference races, and to get you the information you need to make informed decisions about the bottom part of your bracket.

A-Sun

The contenders:
North Florida (11-9) (3-0) RPI 197 SoS 310
Lipscomb (9-9) (3-0) RPI 244 SoS 269
FGCU (12-7) (2-1) RPI 186 SoS 260
USC-Upstate (13-6) (1-2) RPI 205 SoS 330

UNF beat FGCU at home, hence FGCU being pigeon-holed for now.  Common sense would say that FGCU is the class of the league, but the computer numbers don't support it.  Outside of a good solid win at UMass, FGCU hasn't really done much to prove the computer numbers are wrong.  I'm not optimistic about this league's chances in March of doing much of anything, even if FGCU represents them.  I threw USC-Upstate up there with their gaudy record and wins at Mississippi St (eh) and Georgia Tech (!), but the rest of their SoS ain't great, so we'll see.

No postseason projected:
Northern Kentucky (8-10) (2-1)
Jacksonville (7-13) (1-2)
Stetson (5-13) (0-3)
Kennesaw St (5-14) (0-3)

MEAC

The contenders:
North Carolina Central (13-5) (5-0) RPI 82 SoS 206
Norfolk St (11-9) (4-1) RPI 174 SoS 214
Hampton (8-9) (4-1) RPI 294 SoS 348

I could've just stopped at NCCU.  They are so clearly the class of the league, yet they don't even own a top 100 win.  Probably a 15 seed once conference tourney upsets elsewhere are factored in.  Move along, nothing to see here.

No postseason projection:
Maryland-Eastern Shore (10-9) (3-1)
Delaware St (8-9) (2-1)
South Carolina St (5-14) (3-2)
Howard (8-10) (2-2)
North Carolina A&T (5-14) (2-3)
Morgan St (4-15) (2-3)
Bethune-Cookman (5-13) (1-3)
Savannah St (4-13) (0-3)
Coppin St (1-16) (0-4)
Florida A&M (0-17) (0-4)

OVC

The contenders:
Eastern Illinois (12-6) (6-0) RPI 106 SoS 184
Murray St (15-4) (5-0) RPI 104 SoS 243
Eastern Kentucky (11-6) (3-1) RPI 130 SoS 200
Belmont (11-7) (3-2) RPI 108 SoS 132

Well, here we go, a conference with several respectable computer profiles.  Unfortunately, Belmont has all 3 top 100 wins for them and are off the pace in the standings, as far as I can tell.  The conference winner, whoever it is, will probably be in the 14 line, given the strength of the conference profile as a whole.  It's tough for me to get excited about anything that EIU or Murray has on their resume so far, frankly.

No postseason projection:
Tennessee-Martin (11-6) (3-1)
SE Missouri St (9-10) (3-3)
SIU-Edwardsville (7-10) (3-3)
Morehead St (7-13) (2-3)
Austin Peay (6-12) (1-3)
Tennessee Tech (9-10) (1-5)
Jacksonville St (8-12) (1-5)

Tennessee St (3-17) (0-5)

SoCon

The contenders:
Mercer (11-9) (6-1) RPI 213 SoS 274
Wofford (14-5) (5-1) RPI 50 SoS 117
Chattanooga (12-7) (5-1) RPI 136 SoS 178
East Tennessee St (10-6) (5-3) RPI 150 SoS 248

Well, if anyone but Wofford wins the league, it's your standard fare situation for a small conference.  But if Wofford wins...dot dot dot.  They came relatively close to warranting their own bubble entry, but losing on the road to RPI 325 schools (Citadel) usually takes you off the board from such things.  Still, beat Iona, won at NC State...it wouldn't have been impossible, but they needed a clean sheet in conference play and already blew that part of the at-large equation.

No postseason projection:
Citadel (8-10) (3-4)
Western Carolina (8-11) (3-4)
Furman (5-12) (3-4)
VMI (7-12) (3-5)
UNC Greensboro (6-13) (2-4)
Samford (7-14) (0-8)

SWAC

The contenders:
Texas Southern (7-10) (4-0) RPI 113 SoS 104

There's only one contender.  TSU.  Non-con SoS of 5.  Beat Michigan St.  Beat K-State.  Every loss was part of a brutal road non-con schedule.  I have no idea what to seed this team right now, but keep this up and they'll be seeded off the 16 line in March.  (naturally, Alabama St is at 5-0, 1/2 half ahead, for the time being)

No postseason projection:
Alabama St (9-5) (5-0)
Southern (7-12) (4-1)
Alabama A&M (4-11) (3-2)
Alcorn St (4-13) (3-2)
Jackson St (4-14) (2-3)
Prairie View (3-14) (1-3)
Mississippi Valley St (2-15) (1-3)

Arkansas-Pine Bluff (3-15) (0-4)
Grambling St (2-13) (0-5)

Sun Belt

The contenders:
Louisiana-Monroe (11-6) (5-1) RPI 147 SoS 194
Georgia Southern (11-4) (4-2) RPI 140 SoS 324
Louisiana-Lafayette (10-7) (4-2) RPI 217 SoS 296
Georgia St (11-7) (4-3) RPI 118 SoS 160


UL-L did beat LaTech.  Georgia St did beat Green Bay.  Not much else was done from this conference.  Georgia St was supposed to be the king of all mid-majors, but have already absorbed 3 conference losses, pretty much killing the seed the conference could hope to get in March.  I would've thought UL-L would've been a greater threat, but their computer numbers are just terrible.

No postseason projection:
Texas St (10-6) (4-3)
Texas-Arlington (9-7) (3-3)
Arkansas St (8-8) (3-4)
South Alabama (5-12) (3-4)
Troy (7-8) (2-4)
Appalachian St (5-10) (2-4)
Arkansas-Little Rock (6-10) (1-5)

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