S-Curve 1/13

The 1 line:  Kentucky (15-0), Virginia (15-0), Duke (14-1), Kansas (13-2)
The 2 line:  Wisconsin (15-2), Villanova (15-1), Arizona (14-2), Gonzaga (15-1)
The 3 line:  Utah (12-2), VCU (13-3), Iowa St (12-2), North Carolina (12-4)
The 4 line:  Louisville (14-2), Wichita St (13-2), West Virginia (14-2), Maryland (15-2)
The 5 line:  Notre Dame (15-2), Seton Hall (13-3), Oklahoma (11-4), Texas (12-4)
The 6 line:  Baylor (12-3), Providence (13-4), Northern Iowa (14-2), Old Dominion (13-2)
The 7 line:  Arkansas (13-2), Dayton (13-2), North Carolina St (12-5), Stanford (11-4)
The 8 line:  Oklahoma St (11-3), San Diego St (11-4), Ohio St (13-4), Butler (12-5)
The 9 line:  Colorado St (14-2), George Washington (12-4), SMU (11-4), Michigan St (12-5)
The 10 line:  Xavier (11-5), Cincinnati (11-4), St John's (10-4), Georgetown (10-5)
The 11 line:  Syracuse (12-4), Iowa (11-5), Washington (11-4), Indiana (12-4), Temple (12-5), Tulsa (10-4)
The 12 line:  Wyoming (13-2), Harvard (8-3), Green Bay (12-3), Wofford (11-4)
The 13 line:  Eastern Washington (9-4), Iona (11-5), Western Kentucky (8-5), Bowling Green (10-2)
The 14 line:  Texas Southern (6-10), Sam Houston St (8-4), Hofstra (13-4), UC-Davis (10-3)
The 15 line:  North Carolina Central (8-5), St Francis(PA) (8-6), Eastern Illinois (9-6), Coastal Carolina (9-3)
The 16 line:  USC-Upstate (10-4), North Dakota St (9-5), Louisiana-Lafayette (7-5), New Mexico St (7-9), Boston (6-8), Albany (8-7)

Next 4 in:
Cincinnati
St John's
Georgetown
Syracuse

Last 4 in:
Iowa
Washington
Indiana
Temple

Last 4 out:
Alabama
Illinois
Georgia
*Tulsa
LSU

Next 4 out:
UConn
BYU
*Wyoming
Davidson
Rhode Island

Break it down!
Big 12 7
Big East 7
ACC 7
Big 10 6
Pac-12 4
AAC 4
A-10 3
MW 3
SEC 2
MVC 2
CUSA 2

Some thoughts:
1) The SEC back down to 2 teams.  I tried to figure out what's real and what isn't real in this conference, and now I have a headache.  I'm sure Florida will contend, Georgia and LSU are nice, Alabama's better than I thought...but I don't trust any of them right now.  I'm going to let them sort themselves out.
2) Along the same lines, the Pac-12 has a rather low number.  4 is their floor, and they'll get more in March.  But for now, I'd like to see some teams step up there.
3) A ridiculous 23 teams are ranked lower than the worst at-large team.  That won't hold, obviously.
4) Trickiest seed?  Texas Southern.  Bad record, actual good wins, insane non-con SoS (5).  Part of their bump comes from these other conferences being represented by bad teams, but they should avoid Dayton this year if they don't mess this up.
5) My impression is that the bubble begins around the 8 line.  The top 25 or so teams are pretty straightforward...then it's a mess.