Atlantic Sun conference tournament preview

This is part 1 of a 32-part series.

Final standings:
Lipscomb 14-2
Liberty 14-2
North Florida 9-7
FGCU 9-7
NJIT 8-8
North Alabama 7-9
Jacksonville 5-11
Kennesaw St 3-13

Format:
Quarterfinals March 4, semis March 7, finals March 10.  Higher seed hosts each game.

Matchups:
1) Lipscomb vs. 8) Kennesaw St
4) FGCU vs. 5) NJIT
3) North Florida vs. 6) North Alabama
2) Liberty vs. 7) Jacksonville

The stakes:
Hey!  Usually this is a zero-stakes event from a national perspective, but there's mild bubble intrigue here!

Lipscomb has a top 50 NET, and their non-con SoS was 67, so they had some opportunity to get some quality wins.  Let's dive a bit deeper.

2-3 vs. Q1 (beat @TCU, @Liberty, lost to @Louisville, @Clemson, @Belmont)
1-2 vs. Q2 (beat @SMU, lost to Belmont, Liberty)
notable Q3 results:  beat Vermont, lost @FGCU

I dunno, it feels like they're one significant result short.  A split of Belmont, or eking out that Louisville game, would change everything.  There are 11 true road wins.  You can certainly make a case for them, but I fear committee trends say that they won't try.  (it goes without saying that if they lose to anyone but Liberty.....)

If you're wondering, Liberty has a NET of 62, split with Lipscomb, and won at UCLA.  But they're only .500 against Q1/2/3 teams, they lost a couple too many, and their non-con SoS was poor, unlike Lipscomb.  The real argument is the NIT for them, and I really, really hope their season is rewarded by the NIT committee.

North Alabama is transitioning and ineligible, so in the unlikely event they win this, Lipscomb goes in their place I think.

One blog note:  I'm no longer discussing potential CBI/CIT bids.  It's clear based on the past cuple years that they can't get a full field, so anyone who wants to play them, can go.  No need for projections there anymore.