Big 12 conference tournament preview

This is part 19 of a 32-part series.

Standings:
Kansas St 14-4
Texas Tech 14-4
Kansas 12-6
Baylor 10-8
Iowa St 9-9
Texas 8-10
Oklahoma 7-11
TCU 7-11
Oklahoma St 5-13
West Virginia 4-14

Format:
4 days, March 13-16.  Your neutral site is Kansas City.

Matchups:
1) Kansas St vs. 8/9) TCU/Oklahoma St
4) Baylor vs. 5) Iowa St
3) Kansas vs. 6) Texas
2) Texas Tech vs. 7/10) Oklahoma/West Virginia

The stakes:
Can anyone from this conference get to the 2 line?  Texas Tech might be the best chance, but their non-con SoS is middling at 177, leading to no real impact wins in the non-con.  Well, Memphis, Nebraska and Arkansas are okay wins, but they don't work when you're trying to be a 2 seed.  Their profile is solid across the board but just lacks the oomph required to be higher.  They'll be a perfectly cromulent 3 seed.

Kansas St has basically the mirror of Texas Tech, with regards to non-con results.  One difference is that they have 3 Q2 losses (Tech had none).  So they slip back a bit, to the edge of the 4/5 line.

Kansas is the impossible team to seed.  #1 SoS.  10 Q1 wins.  Avg NET win of 63 (!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!).  These numbers traditionally scream 1 line.  But they lost 8 times (only once outside of Q1).  They have the couple extra signature wins of N-Tennessee and N-Michigan St, plus Wofford (a Q1a win!).  If they could've just turned 23-8 into 25-6, they'd be on the 1 line.  As is, they gave away a couple too many games, and they don't pass the eye test for a 1 or 2 seed.  So the conundrum for the committee comes down to how much the eyes matter vs. how much the resume matters.  A 3 seed seems like a fair compromise...but there might not be room there for them.  In the end, a 3-8 true road record is probably the decider that makes me lean towards 4 line.  (dropping them further than a 4 would seem criminal for a team with those computer numbers, IMO)

Iowa St and Baylor are boring for me to discuss, given their relative standing.  They're somewhere in the 5-7 lines.  I think they absorbed too much damage to make the top 4 lines even if they win out...and they've done enough to really avoid being any lower than an 8.

The bubble fun begins at Oklahoma.  Kinda.  I think they probably survive a loss to Tech in the quarters, but it's not a slam dunk case.  You can laugh, but that Q1a win over Wofford is a profile-saver right now.  They went only 4-10 against the other non-garbage B12 teams, which doesn't strike me as good enough on its own to make it.  Wofford and N-Florida wins, plus good SoS numbers, plus 8 R/N wins...everything about their profile says "just barely good enough".  I'd rather they beat Tech and make my job easier though.

TCU has a softer SoS, so Florida is their only true significant non-con result.  They went 5-9 against relevant B12 teams.  So slightly better, but their best ones were a sweep of ISU (so no wins over the top 3 schools).  They do have 4 neutral site wins buttressing the back end of the resume, but 3 of them are Q3/4.  So their .500 R/N record is a slight mirage.  Can they make it with a loss to K-State?  It's really, truly on the borderline.

Texas has a problem with the sheer number of losses they've absorbed.  16-15.  A terrific SoS, a win over UNC that's gaining steam, a win over Purdue.  Only 1 Q3 loss....but a few Q2 losses (Provi, @OSU, @Georgia) look worse than your average Q2 loss.  They went 5-9 vs. relevant B12 teams.  The damning number is 2-8 in true road games.  But in the end, at some point, you plain old have to win games.  I don't see any case to be made without beating Kansas.  If they do that, that'll be their 4th win over a top 4 seed, and boy that's tough to ignore.  Beating Kansas AND Tech probably gets them there...losing to Kansas and you just have to boot them out.  In a weird way, they would have been better off as a 7 seed.  They're the rare team that just plain old needs wins of any kind, plus TTU would be a higher impact win than Kansas right now.