The 1 line: Virginia, Gonzaga, Duke, Kentucky
The 2 line: Tennessee, North Carolina, Michigan St, Houston
The 3 line: Michigan, LSU, Purdue, Kansas
The 4 line: Marquette, Texas Tech, Florida St, Nevada
The 5 line: Iowa St, Wisconsin, Virginia Tech, Kansas St
The 6 line: Mississippi St, Villanova, Maryland, Iowa
The 7 line: Buffalo, Cincinnati, Baylor, Louisville
The 8 line: Wofford, Ole Miss, Washington, Syracuse
The 9 line: Auburn, VCU, Ohio St, Texas
The 10 line: Oklahoma, Florida, TCU, Alabama
The 11 line: St John's, Central Florida, Seton Hall, Arizona St
The 12 line: Minnesota, Temple, Belmont, North Carolina St, Utah St, Lipscomb
The 13 line: New Mexico St, Yale, Hofstra, Old Dominion
The 14 line: Vermont, UC Irvine, South Dakota St Loyola(Chi),
The 15 line: Montana, Texas St, Radford, Northern Kentucky
The 16 line: Colgate, Sam Houston St, St Francis(PA), Iona, Norfolk St, Prairie View A&M
Last 4 in:
Minnesota
Temple
Belmont*
North Carolina St
Utah St
Last 4 out:
Clemson
St Mary's
Xavier
Lipscomb*
Indiana
Next 4 out:
Furman
Georgetown
Murray St
Butler
Bubble inception:
Oregon St
Davidson
Providence
Memphis
UNC-Greensboro
Arizona
East Tennessee St
Dayton
Creighton
Liberty
Utah
San Francisco
---probable NIT bubble cutline---
Boston College
Oregon
BYU
South Carolina
South Florida
Fresno St
UCLA
Toledo
USC
Nebraska
Colorado
2 comments:
Lots of action today that will change these seed lines greatly.
Kentucky is not expected to win at Tennessee but Tennessee is likely to pass Kentucky back up to the #1 line with a win. I still think Kentucky is #5 overall with a loss today because they would have 5 losses same as North Carolina and Michigan State and they beat North Carolina on a neutral court and MSU lost to 2 non NCAA teams one at home in Indiana and at Illinois. For some reason people want to forget about those 2 losses as Seth Davis just said if MSU wins out they will be a lock #1 seed and not only that in the conversation for #1 overall. That is the problem with when games are played. If Kentucky lost to Tennessee earlier this year than put that 86-69 beat down on them in Rupp now Kentucky would get more credit because they would be moving up not down when in reality all games are supposed to count the same since you can't control when you play the teams you play where you play them.
Nevada has 0 games played vs quad 1 teams. They only have 2 losses but I can't see them sticking on that 4 line right now. Today's game will be huge for both Nevada and Utah State. I can't see Utah State having much chance for at large bid without a win today and if Nevada loses again they will still have 0 quad 1 wins they could fall to 6 seed line and really should fall lower they are getting credit for last year's run to be any higher based on resume.
Arizona State should be out but the bubble so crappy they stick in. Mid Majors like Furman deserve to be in to point to 1 loss vs Samford as to why they are out is so not right. The major team conferences lose all the time to crappy in conf teams but losing to Penn State and Illinois isn't considered that much compared to a team like Furman.
Saint Mary's should be a 100 miles from the tournament without a win tonight vs Gonzaga. They have zippo on the resume how they are considered this close to being in by some amazes me. At least Furman won at Nova. I mean what the hell has Saint Mary's done ? They have 10 losses in a very not so good conference. They have zippo wins vs at large teams. Honestly what the hell...they are 100 miles from the tournament. Wins at New Mexico State, home to San Fran and at San Diego do not get you anywhere near the bubble. Explain to me how a 10 loss team with those 3 wins as their best 3 wins is anywhere near bubble ?
In my system the only thing currently carrying St Marys is good computer numbers - 39th in NET, 36th in Kenpom, etc. All of the other metrics are, as you said, pretty terrible. But committee has shown in the last 2 years to care quite a bit more about these computer numbers so there is some chance it is enough.
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