SEC conference tournament preview

This is part 24 of a 32-part series.

Standings:
LSU 16-2
Kentucky 15-3
Tennessee 15-3
South Carolina 11-7
Auburn 11-7
Mississippi St 10-8
Ole Miss 10-8
Florida 9-9
Arkansas 8-10
Alabama 8-10
Texas A&M 6-12
Missouri 5-13
Georgia 2-16
Vanderbilt 0-18

Format:
March 13-17.  Your neutral site is Nashville.

Matchups:
1) LSU vs. 8/9) Florida/Arkansas
4) South Carolina vs. 5) Auburn vs. 12/13) Missouri/Georgia
3) Tennessee vs. 6) Mississippi St vs. 11/14) Texas A&M/Vanderbilt
2) Kentucky vs. 7/10) Ole Miss/Alabama

The stakes:
I don't think Kentucky, Tennessee, or LSU is in danger of falling below the 2 line.  Well, probably.  I'll certainly listen to arguments against Tennessee if they lose before reaching Kentucky in the bracket.  Or LSU, but I'm thinking UT is more vulnerable right now.

On the other hand, I think I'm willing to give a 1 seed to the conference champ.  It might be a litttttle tougher for LSU than for UK or UT to get there, but I think when you work out all the permutations, I'm ok with this generic statement. 

It's worth noting LSU only got UK and UT once...and can only get one of them in this tourney.  So they're not quite as heavy on marquee wins as the other 1 seed contenders, but I think that'll be overlooked if they win this.

Kentucky is the team with the shiniest non-con results...UT did beat Gonzaga though.  UT's non-con SoS lag behind the other 2.  In the end, they're all close enough to make me apply the blanket statement.  Conference title means 1 line.

Mississippi St is in an awkward spot in the bracket...can probably peak at 3 if they win the whole thing (because that could mean beating all 3 biggies), but more likely they settle in on the 5/6 borderline.

Auburn is safely in...marginal 3-7 rec vs. Q1.  And a real bad break, drawing South Carolina's quadrant in this tournament.  They won't have access to a quality win until the semifinals.  Anywhere from the 6 line to 9 line for them seems reasonable.

Ols Miss might be a tricky team to seed.  10 Q1 losses, but only 1 loss outside of that.  On the other end, Auburn 2x, Baylor, MSU as your best win, screams middle of the bracket at best.  They probably have to be in no matter what (Alabama represents a loss that won't do too much profile damage), but I'm not excited about them.

2 bubble teams of record here.

Florida is 1.  14 losses; 11 Q1 losses.  Home losses to UGa and SCar are Q3 losses.  That's pretty meh.  But there's that road win at LSU, propping everything up.  5-6 road record is also useful.  However, @LSU and Ole Miss represent their only wins over probable tourney teams?  That's dicey.  Lose to Arky and you're done.  If you lose to LSU, that's no harm to you....but that assumes that you don't need any more help to get in.  True borderline team.

Alabama is a bit dicier.  14 losses, but 5 are Q2/3.  Kentucky is the signature win....beat the Mississippi schools at home as well plus Murray St.  Probably behind Florida in the pecking order.  Probably has to beat Ole Miss.  If they do, they're still a true borderline team, IMO.

I can't see a case for South Carolina despite 11 SEC wins; they needed a true elite win and never got it.  And I'll keep half an eye on Arkansas, who got a favorable draw.  A run to the finals could include Florida/LSU/Auburn; we can talk if that happens.