AAC conference tournament preview

This is part 29 of a 32-part series.

Standings:
Houston 16-2
Cincinnati 14-4
Temple 13-5
UCF 13-5
Memphis 11-7
Wichita St 10-8
Tulsa 8-10
South Florida 8-10
UConn 6-12
SMU 6-12
East Carolina 3-15
Tulane 0-18

Format:
All 12 teams from March 14-17.  Memphis hosts.  (pay attention, because that means a Q1 win is available to any of their opponents)

Matchups:
1) Houston vs. 8/9) South Florida/UConn
4) UCF vs. 5/12) Memphis/Tulane
3) Temple vs. 6/11) Wichita St/East Carolina
2) Cincinnati vs. 7/10) Tulsa/SMU

The stakes:
Can Houston get to the 1 line?  Their losses are UCF and @Temple, which feels just bad enough to prevent making the 1 line.  However, their home win over LSU is picking up steam.  As is Utah St.  Their non-con SoS is 118, which is good, but disappointing when they had put Oregon, @Okla St, and @BYU on there.  Plus some cupcakes are burying them too.

I sympathize with Houston's claim to a 1 seed.  But Virginia, Gonzaga, ACC tournament winner, SEC tournament winner, and Michigan St (if they win the B1G) are all sitting there too.  Is there room for Houston too?  Man, I dunno.

What about the 2 line?  Tennessee, LSU, Michigan, TTU, Purdue....there's in the middle of that mix, somewhere.  5 Q1 wins is low, but 9 Q2 wins help offset it.  I have them 11th right now....might be low.  Might need to swap them and Tech.  I have a feeling the call on the 2/3 line will be something I sweat right 'till the end, and I am okay with arguments on either side.

Cincy is right in the middle of the bracket.  One dumb, dumb Q4 loss; 4-4 vs. Q1, 10 Q1/Q2 wins.  The real hole is a lack of signature win; Ole Miss on a neutral site is probably the best, give or take UCF and @Temple.  Tough to seed them too high without one of those.

UCF has played their way in, with two sig wins (@Houston, Cincy) and no real alarming metric (sure, a Q3 loss is in there, and two Q2 losses are @Mizzou and @Wichita, which isn't great).    I can see dinging their seed a bit for those, but not their selection.  Good news is that a road loss to Memphis won't damage them too badly, so the tournament bracket sets up reallllly well for them.

I'm not too comfortable with Temple's position....two Q1 wins over Houston and UCF at home, 8 Q1/2 wins....bad non-con SoS.  Only 1 Q2 loss and 1 Q3 loss.  What do they need in this tournament?  I think a semifinal apperance, and I'm putting them in, but I won't feel good about it.  Beating Cincy would be very advisable.  But what if they lose to Wichita?  I dunno, I wouldn't feel comfortable in making a call on them either way.  Bad loss avoidance might be the different for them in making it, I think.

I think Memphis is an NIT team, but they have only 3 wins in Q1/2.  Might need another one to be sure.  Wichita St/Tulsa is an interesting debate as to who's next in line (USF's profile lags a bit behind).  However, I have a feeling it might not matter and both would miss the NIT.  Gotta look at it closer, though.