A-10 conference tournament preview

This is part 25 of a 32-part series.

Standings:
VCU 16-2
Davidson 14-4
Dayton 13-5
St Bonaventure 12-6
George Mason 11-7
St Louis 10-8
Duquesne 10-8
Rhode Island 9-9
La Salle 8-10
St Joseph's 6-12
Richmond 6-12
George Washington 4-14
UMass 4-14
Fordham 3-15

Format:
March 13-17.  Brooklyn is your neutral site host.

Matchups:
1) VCU vs. 8/9) Rhode Island/LaSalle
4) St Bonaventure vs. 5) George Mason vs. 12/13) George Washington/UMass
3) Dayton vs. 6) St Louis vs. 11/14) Richmond/Fordham
2) Davidson vs. 7/10) Duquesne/St Joseph's

The stakes:
What a terrible year for the A-10.  Down to 10th in CNET.  Only 3 Top 100 teams in NET.  Usually the hallmark of the A-10 is producing a bunch of decent teams, keeping the league's at-large hopes afloat by making sure quality games were numerous in conference play.  Didn't happen this year.

VCU is the one team streaking towards the lockbox.  Non-con SoS of 2 is always sexy.  6-4 vs. the top 2 quads; offsetting 2 Q3 losses.  @Texas, N-Temple, and sweeping Dayton aren't the sexiest wins, but they're probably enough in this bubble environment.  9-4 R/N record helps too.  It won't be a great seed, but I can't see this profile missing, I think.  At the very least, I think they compare favorably to Belmont, the SoCon teams, etc., in terms of overall profile.  Still, there's always the chance.  I can see a coherent argument against them relating to the lack of truly signature win, but I don't think the committee will make it.

Davidson probably isn't in play.  5 Q2 wins are their best...but VCU is the only team even near the tournament bubble among those 5.  4 Q3 losses (although they're all roadies, and they did go 7-5 on the road).  Among teams with a lack of quality wins, there's better resumes than Davidson's out there.  And winning out to the final probably won't enhance it enough.

Dayton's even worse off...their win over Butler has evaporated into nothing.  Just 3 wins inside Q1/2.  8 wins in the top 3 quads.  Just can't realistically do it.

Another sign the league is down?  No one outside the top 3 is even particularly close to the NIT bubble.