Pac-12 conference tournament preview

This is part 28 of a 32-part series.

Standings:
Washington 15-3
Arizona St 12-6
Utah 11-7
Oregon St 10-8
Colorado 10-8
Oregon 10-8
UCLA 9-9
USC 8-10
Arizona 8-10
Stanford 8-10
Washington St 4-14
Cal 3-15

Format:
March 13-16, Vegas

Matchups:
1) Washington vs. 8/9) USC/Arizona
4) Oregon St vs. 5/12) Colorado/Cal
3) Utah vs. 6/11) Oregon/Washington St
2) Arizona St vs. 7/10) UCLA/Stanford

The stakes:

Oy.

Washington hasn't beaten a tournament team all year.  Their 2 Q1 wins are @Oregon and @Colorado.  Their 6 Q2 wins are 4 conference road games, Colorado at home, and N-A&M.  In a normal bubble year, this resume isn't good enough.  However, I think human bias enters the picture.  And a conference champ of a mid-major conference gets looked at favorably.  And 8 Q1/2 wins aren't terrible.  And their non-con SoS looks good, and they're 9-6 in R/N games.  I dunno, instinct tells me they'll be overseeded, and fine.  And while there's no good wins available in this tournament....none of the losses would really hurt too badly.

Arizona St might be better off.  3 Q1 wins, including Kansas, Miss St, and Utah St.  8 Q2 wins.  And while none of the Q2 wins are sexy on their own, having a 8-2 mark against the group as a whole is definitely a positive.  What definitely hurts is 4 losses in Q3/4.  That mark is definitely a problem.  Because if quality wins are all that matter....teams like Indiana might trump ASU.  If bad loss avoidance is all that matters...everyone passes up ASU.  But can the other bubble teams handle the combination of resume features that ASU has?  That's the question.  Big pluses, big minuses, what do they add up to?

Again, a big factor is the lack of access to quality wins in this tournament.  So I would highly recommend that ASU get to the final here, to ensure safety.

Boy, I can easily see the committee making this a 1 bid league, but I think the human element takes over.  If we get a UW/ASU final, it feels like both will get in.  If one takes a dumb loss, we can revisit.

By the way, the NIT bubble here is a mess.  Quickie profiles on everyone else:
Oregon:  NET 61, beat @Wash, N-Syracuse, ASU
Colorado:  NET 69, beat Oregon, ASU
Oregon St:  NET 84, beat @Oregon, @Colorado, Oregon
Utah:  NET 99, beat @ASU, Colorado
Arizona:  NET 93, beat N-IaSt, Colorado, @OSU
UCLA, Stanford, USC probably out barring multiple upsets

I think I ordered those teams in the order I'd take them at the moment.  I certainly think the Oregon St/Colorado winner would be in, and the Utah/Oregon winner would be either in (Oregon) or on the edge (Utah).  OSU/CU loser on the bubble, Utah out with a loss, Oregon probably in either way.

I think.  What a mess.