ACC conference tournament preview

This is part 16 of a 32-part preview.

Standings:
Virginia 16-2
North Carolina 16-2
Duke 14-4
Florida St 13-5
Virginia Tech 12-6
Syracuse 10-8
Louisville 10-8
NC State 9-9
Clemson 9-9
Georgia Tech 6-12
Boston College 5-13
Miami 5-13
Wake Forest 4-14
Pitt 3-15
Notre Dame 3-15

Format:
5 days, from March 12-16.  Double byes for the top 4 teams, as they have to accomodate 15 friggin' teams.

Matchups:
1) Virginia vs. 8/9) North Carolina St/Clemson
4) Florida St vs. 5/12/13) Virginia Tech/Miami/Wake Forest
3) Duke vs. 6/11/14) Syracuse/Boston College/Pitt
2) North Carolina vs. 7/10/15) Louisville/Georgia Tech/Notre Dame

The stakes:
I think Virginia is locked onto the 1 line, and probably can't do worse than #2 overall.  I think the committee will lock them up there, set it and forget it.

UNC has passed Duke on my board, putting them on the 1 line and Duke on the 2 line.  So much will depend on Zion's health, whether or not that'll change.  It might be as simple as whoever goes further in the tournament gets a 1 seed, and the loser gets a 2 seed.

In practice, it might not be as simple as that, as I think coherent arguments can be made for, say, 2 SEC teams on the 1 line, and Duke and UNC on the 2 line if shenanigans happen in the ACCT.

There's some interesting seeding decisions downstream in the seed list.  Florida St is a team I've crept up to the 4 line; it's a bit flimsy, and I wouldn't be surprised if teams below them won their way past FSU, bumping them to a 5 seed.  And one sneaky bracket fact:  if you're a top 4 seed, and the 4th best team in your conference, you get the worst geographic placement (read:  west region).  It's because of the Top 4 rule to keep top teams in a conference away from each other in the bracket.  It almost might be better to be a 5 seed out east than a 4 out west.

I've been holding Virginia Tech back just a bit in the seed list; their non-con SoS deep in the 200s is a pretty obvious reason why.  They're really lacking depth of quality wins (only 3 wins over surefire tourney teams), which makes the argument for a top 4 seed tough.  If they get to, and through Virginia, that'll change.  But probably not before then.

I think Syracuse and Louisville are safely in the field, mid-pack...seed can certainly change (in either direction) dramatically, but it's tough to talk about those changed in a vacuum.

Bubble.  I've talked so much about NC State's non-con SoS.  352.  That's not good.  The committee has a long and storied tradition of bouncing those teams out of their tourney.  Their lynchpin wins (Auburn, Syracuse, Clemson) are home wins.  I think they have to beat Clemson...and maybe Virginia too, to make it.  I just can't project them in.

Clemson has a similar problem of lack of quality wins (Syracuse, Va Tech, Lipscomb), but have the better non-con SoS numbers, but a couple more squirrely losses....beating NC State might be enough.  But I'm not willing to lock that in, upon further review.

The good news about this tourney setup is that it's very solvent.  Clemson and NC State have to play; loser almost certainly has to be out.  Winner has a chance to win their way in by beating Virginia.  A win there and it's an easy call; a loss and it's a tough call.  FSU and VT likely play with a possible 4 seed on the line.  UNC/Duke play with a 1 seed on the line.  Solvent.