Moving Duke to #2 overall. I wouldn't argue with anyone who moves them to #1 overall, and their #2 SoS is sterling. Just feel like Virginia kept a cleaner sheet throughout the year.
Gonzaga/UNC/Tennessee/Kentucky can go in almost any order. Gonzaga's SoS hung tough all year - 52 overall. I think I move Tennessee to 3rd as they kept the cleanest sheet all year (no losses outside Q1a).
This is an unusual case where we have a lot of feedback within the top 6 teams. Duke swept Virginia; Gonzaga beat Duke but lost to Tennessee/UNC; Tennessee took 2 of 3 off of UK; UNC took 2 of 3 off of Duke , Kentucky beat UNC. That's an incredible amount of feedback, and it also instructs us to one inevitable problem: someone's gonna get seeded right behind a team they beat, and there's no way to avoid that. With that in mind, I think the committee gives the West to UNC, knowing Gonzaga can be the 2 in the west. But boy, I don't feel very confident about this call.
People think Michigan St can be on the 1 line...don't see it. They're closed out of the feedback loop I mentioned above, and a couple sloppy losses doom them. I've been debating Houston vs. Michigan and have changed my mind a few times already. I reserve the right to change my mind again.
I almost put Kansas on the 3 line, but I think the committee eye tests them down to the 4 line. No arguments if they move up, though.
I almost moved Villanova higher. 13 Q2 wins! But the Big East was such a Q2 factory. They had 8 wins alone in Q2b, and I almost have to admit their 13 Q2 win total is a bit of a byproduct of the arbitrary cutoffs. I think the 5 line is fair for them. As for Va Tech, I almost pulled the trigger to move them down to a 6. I think there's a legit argument there. That's another case where I think the eye test will be used.
I did some seed scrubbing in the lower lines, but those are much less interesting to write about. To the bubble we go.
I dunno, I'm staring at Indiana's wins, and every other bubble team's wins, and I'm having a tougher time thinking they'll be left out. Same kinda vibe I have with Texas. I'm looking at the TCU/Ohio St/Belmont/Temple gaggle and seeing the same generic problem of lack of impact wins. I'm going with the compromise solution for now (Indiana in, Texas out), but man, I'm waffling.
We've seen 15-loss teams sneak in (but they're usually something like 19-15). Does 17-15 make it? 16-16 probably can't.
I'm also moving up Creighton a bit to hedge my bet. Don't see them making it but I see a lot of similar characteristics to bubble teams in their profile.
It's brutal that I keep slipping these SoCon teams further down but there's so much traffic still on the bubble this late. Brutal for Furman, who I had in like 2 days ago. A-10 and Pac-12 poachings cost 2 spots, then the executive call on Indiana.
The PIG has moved up to the 11 line, which is a big BIG BIG deal. The way it had been lined up, one of them would've had to be sent to San Jose. Not so now.
The 1 line: Virginia, Duke, Tennessee, North Carolina
The 2 line: Gonzaga, Kentucky, Michigan St, Michigan
The 3 line: Houston, Florida St, LSU, Texas Tech
The 4 line: Kansas, Purdue, Wisconsin, Kansas St
The 5 line: Mississippi St, Iowa St, Villanova, Virginia Tech
The 6 line: Marquette, Buffalo, Auburn, Maryland
The 7 line: Wofford, Louisville, Nevada, Cincinnati
The 8 line: Seton Hall, Syracuse, Ole Miss, Baylor
The 9 line: Minnesota, Oklahoma, Florida, Utah St
The 10 line: UCF, Iowa, Arizona St, Washington
The 11 line: VCU, St John's, TCU, Ohio St, Indiana, St Mary's
The 12 line: Oregon, Murray St, Liberty, New Mexico St
The 13 line: Northeastern, Old Dominion, Georgia St, St Bonaventure
The 14 line: UC Irvine, Harvard, Vermont, Bradley
The 15 line: Colgate, Northern Kentucky, Montana, Gardner-Webb
The 16 line: Abilene Christian, Iona, North Dakota St, Fairleigh Dickinson, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina Central
Next 4 in:
Iowa
Arizona St
Washington
VCU
Last 4 in:
St John's
TCU
Ohio St
Indiana
Last 4 out:
Temple
Belmont
Furman
Texas
Next 4 out:
North Carolina St
UNC Greensboro
Creighton
Alabama
NIT lines:
The 1 line: Temple, Belmont, Furman, Texas
The 2 line: North Carolina St, UNC Greensboro, Creighton, Alabama
The 3 line: Lipscomb, Clemson, Georgetown, Memphis
The 4 line: Colorado, Nebraska, Davidson, Xavier
The 5 line: Providence, Arkansas, Dayton, BYU
The 6 line: Utah, Oregon St, Toledo, East Tennessee St
The 7 line: Hofstra, Loyola(Chi), South Dakota St, Wright St
The 8 line: Campbell, Sam Houston St, St Francis(PA), Norfolk St
Last 4 in: Utah, Oregon St, Toledo, East Tennessee St
Last 4 out: Wichita St, San Francisco, South Carolina, Fresno St
Next 4 out: Butler, St Louis, South Florida, Utah Valley
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