Big Sky conference tournament preview

This is part 22 of a 32-part series.

Standings:
Montana 16-4
Northern Colorado 15-5
Eastern Washington 12-8
Weber St 11-9
Portland St 11-9
Montana St 11-9
Southern Utah 9-11
Northern Arizona 8-12
Sacramento St 8-12
Idaho St 7-13
Idaho 2-18

Format:
March 13-16, neutral site in Boise.  Straight-up bracket with no frills.

Matchups:
1) Montana vs. 8/9) Northern Arizona/Sacramento St
4) Weber St vs. 5) Portland St
3) Eastern Washington vs. 6/11) Montana St/Idaho
2) Northern Colorado vs. 7/10) Southern Utah/Idaho St

The stakes:
Honestly pretty low.  A quick glance at the NET shows Montana at 123, UNC and Weber St around 170, and everyone else well over 250.  Weber and UNC have modest (but not great) chances to avoid the 16 line; Montana probably will avoid the 16 line; everyone else would be doomed for Dayton.

Montana's the one team that can reasonably escape to even the 14 line; but their only Q1/2 win is @South Dakota St (which is still a nice win, though.  4 Q4 losses, kinda offset by a non-con SoS in the 50s (so their other losses are reasonable, more or less).  They had to hit the road hard in the non-con to get the good games, so their lack of non-con results is at least understandable.  I've got 'em at 15 with a reasonable chance to get to 14; I have no issue with anyone who wants to put them on the 14 already.

The conference's CNET is 27, so not a lot of helping each other in this conference.  Hence why everyone but Montana is more or less headed to the 16 line.