Thursday, March 7, 2019

Summit League conference tournament preview

This is part 12 of a 32-part series.

Standings:
South Dakota St 14-2
Omaha 13-3
IPFW 9-7
North Dakota St 9-7
Oral Roberts 7-9
South Dakota 7-9
North Dakota 6-10
Western Illinois 4-12

Format:
March 9-12.  (quarterfinals run over 2 days as I think they share with the ladies)  Sioux Falls is the "neutral" site.

Matchups:
1) South Dakota St vs. 8) Western Illinois
4) North Dakota St vs. 5) Oral Roberts
3) IPFW vs. 6) South Dakota
2) Omaha vs. 7) North Dakota

The stakes:
Pretty low stakes.  Everyone but Omaha and SDSU are shoo-ins for Dayton if they win; Omaha is borderline just based on NET ranking.  Would probably depend on the other contenders for the PIG.

South Dakota St is the only team even remotely interesting, but they only have a NET of 101, with no Q1/2 wins.  Bad schedule, no quality wins; all they really have is the NET ranking that suggests they'll be a tier above quite a few other conference champions.

One thing we'll need to see, when it comes to seeding the 13-16 lines, is how much NET matters.  I don't think RPI mattered much when seeding these teams in the past.  Now with NET, will the committee trust it to help with seeding the bottom teams?  If so, SDSU could be helped, having a very good W-L record and a NET that should beat ~10 conference champs easily.  If not, the gaping holes in their profile could doom them to the 15 line.

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