This is part 21 of a 32-part series.
Standings:
Villanova 13-5
Marquette 12-6
Seton Hall 9-9
Xavier 9-9
Creighton 9-9
Georgetown 9-9
St John's 8-10
Providence 7-11
Butler 7-11
DePaul 7-11
Good God. What the hell, Big East.
Format:
March 13-16. MSG. You know the drill.
Matchups:
1) Villanova vs. 8/9) Providence/Butler
4) Xavier vs. 5) Creighton
3) Seton Hall vs. 6) Georgetown
2) Marquette vs. 7/10) St John's/DePaul
The stakes:
What a clusterfark of a bubble situation. Ok, let's deal with Villanova and Marquette first.
Nova has a strong SoS, beat FSU and Temple in the non-con, and their once-terrible loss to Furman is merely a flesh wound now. 15 combined wins in Q1/2 (Big East rankings!). Lacking the high end results to get anywhere near the 3 line, but 4? It's possible. But not probable.
Marquette has more marquee non-con results (Wisky, Buffalo, Louisville, K-State), with more terrible form as of late. Still, 15 Q1/2 wins too, and an overall profile that seems better than Villanova. But if current form matters, they slide slightly. I give them the same outlook as Nova.
Ok, these other 8 clowns. Let's just list all their goods and bads. Because I think all 8 are in bubble play. (these resumes are short, but we need to make them bite size for the sake of brevity)
St John's: non-con SoS 214, 5-6 vs. Q1, 5-3 vs. Q2
swing games: beat Nova, swept Marquette, beat N-VCU, swept by DePaul, beat at home by G'town/Provi/X
Seton Hall: non-con SoS 100, 6-7 vs. Q1, 6-3 vs. Q2
swing games: beat N-Kentucky, Maryland, Nova, Marq, swept by DePaul, lost to St Louis and Xavier at home
Georgetown: non-con SoS 252, 5-6 vs. Q1, 6-5 vs. Q2
swing games: beat Nova, @Marq, lost to SMU, N-LMU, @DePaul
Xavier: non-con SoS 167, 4-8 vs. Q1, 4-4 vs. Q2
swing games: beat Nova, lost to DePaul, N-SDSU, @Mizzou
Creighton: non-con SoS 28, 3-10 vs. Q1, 6-3 vs. Q2
swing games: beat @Marq, lost to @X, @Butler, @Nebraska
Providence: non-con SoS 149, 4-7 vs. Q1, 5-5 vs. Q2
swing games: beat @Texas, lost to G'town, @DePaul, N-Wichita
Butler: non-con SoS 66, 1-10 vs. Q1, 8-4 vs. Q2
swing games: beat N-Fla, Ole Miss, lost to G'town, @StL, Provi
DePaul: non-con SoS 351, 3-7 vs. Q1, 4-6 vs. Q2
swing games: none, really. lost to BC, @UND, @NW
Well, we can see a few things. First, St John's and Seton Hall are a half-step ahead. Having big wins on the docket matter. St John's SoS is slightly concerning, and losing swing games at home is also concerning. But I think they line up ahead of everyone else, give or take a Seton Hall. SHU is in good shape with those non-con results. I think they're fine as long as they practice bad loss avoidance in this tourney.
We can probably dismiss DePaul on the bottom. They actually picked off 3 roadies in conference play, but those are their Q1 wins. That 351 non-con SoS makes them DOA though. And we'll dismiss Butler, 1 Q1 win isn't enough when there's so many chances on the board. We'll revisit if they pick off Nova. I think I pace Providence at the bottom here as well because of the lack of signature win. If they beat Nova, again, we'll revisit,
That leaves the mess in the middle. They all kinda blur together, Georgetown/Creighton/Xavier. Creighton has the SoS, but 3 Q1 wins is light. Georgetown has 5, Xavier has 4, but all 3 have a few marginal losses and one key win. I'm leaning towards all of them being out, but all of them having a reasonable path to an at-large bid. Creighton and Xavier play each other, making it simple: if the winner of that beats Nova, we've got a discussion. Georgetown is a bit trickier. I think they gotta get both Seton Hall and Marquette to make a reasonable case.
It's looking like 4 bids, but I think the chance of Creighton, Xavier, or Georgetown making the title game is half-decent.
No comments:
Post a Comment