Monday, March 5, 2018

Mountain West conference tournament preview

This is part 22 of a 32-part series.

Nevada 15-3
Boies St 13-5
New Mexico 12-6
Fresno St 11-7
San Diego St 11-7
Wyoming 10-8
UNLV 8-10
Utah St 8-10
Air Force 6-12
Colorado St 4-14
San Jose St 1-17

March 7-10.  Las Vegas.

1) Nevada vs. 8/9) UNLV/Air Force
4) Fresno St vs. 5) San Diego St
3) New Mexico vs. 6/11) Wyoming/San Jose St
2) Boise St vs. 7/10) Utah St/Colorado St

The stakes:
CRPI of 9, a rebound season for the conference.  Nevada will bear some of the fruits.  The seed has taken a ding as of late, and is still a source of debate, though.  Their metrics are in mostly good shape (7-4 vs. top 2 groups, 11 true road wins, non-con SoS 18) so I wouldn't go anywhere near a double digit seed for them.

Boise.  Some reasonable metrics (6-5 vs. top 2 groups, winning road/neutral record).  One ugly non-con SoS at 217.  One win against Loyola that's gained speed.  But no wins over at-large teams, and no access to quality wins before the final in this tournament.  It's a tough but not impossible case.  I don't think I can swing it for them.  Out.

Some interesting NIT profiles.  UNM is 3rd in conference but a clear 7th in overall profile in the league.  This may cost the entire league.  If SDSU or Wyoming were in 3rd, I think I could argue for an at-large bid for either.  I might still yet argue for SDSU, maybe.

1 comment:

Unknown said...

SDSU is coming on strong. I prediction a low #10 seed in the NCAA and winning it all. Mark my words.