Monday, March 5, 2018

Big East conference tournament

This is part 21 of a 32-part series.

Xavier 15-3
Villanova 14-4
Seton Hall 10-8
Creighton 10-8
Providence 10-8
Butler 9-9
Marquette 9-9
Georgetown 5-13
St John's 4-14
DePaul 4-14

March 7-10.  MSG.

1) Xavier vs. 8/9) Georgetown/St John's
4) Creighton vs. 5) Providence
3) Seton Hall vs. 6) Butler
2) Villanova vs. 7/10) Marquette/DePaul

The stakes:
Villanova and Xavier are on the 1 line, and I highly suspect anything this week will change that.  They could be playing for #2 overall on the S-Curve, which could be a big deal geographically.  Loser could get shipped to Omaha.

Seton Hall and Creighton are mid-bracket teams, playing for seeding.  But like I've mentioned elsewhere, their seed might depend more on what other teams do than themselves.  I've been perhaps too aggressive with CU's seed given their non-con SoS in the 230s; I'm likely going to rectify this in future S-Curves.  The predictive metrics favor them though.

Butler and Provi are further down, but I think they're also safe.  Providence might be dicey if not for two home wins over 1 seeds.    Butler also has high end wins.  Both have lost a significant portion of their Group 1 games though.  However, given the state of the bubble I can't find major motivation to kick them out of the bracket.  At least not yet; we'll see if the bubble shrinks.

Marquette will be the bubble team of record in the conference.  Unlike their bretheren, they don't have a win over a projected top 4 seed, meaning they're a step behind the other teams even though their vital signs are more or less even with the others.  Unfortunately, they don't have much chance to add value to their resume - Villanova is a big ask to get; MU might've been better served just adding Group 1 wins via lesser opponents.  Still, a win-and-in opportunity looms.

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