Wednesday, March 7, 2018

AAC tournament preview

This is part 29 of a 32-part series.

Cincinnati 16-2
Wichita St 14-4
Houston 14-4
Tulsa 12-6
Memphis 10-8
UCF 9-9
Temple 8-10
UConn 7-11
SMU 6-12
Tulane 5-13
East Carolina 4-14
South Florida 3-15

March 8-11.  Orlando is the neutral site host this time.

1) Cincinnati vs. 8/9) SMU/UConn
4) Tulsa vs. 5/12) Memphis/South Florida
3) Houston vs. 6/11) UCF/East Carolina
2) Wichita St vs. 7/10) Temple/Tulane

The stakes:
Weirdly low stakes.  3 teams definitely off the bubble in one direction, and no one else even close.  There's no bubble drama!

I was in hard on Cincy in January, seeding them aggressively.  I backed off after a  couple losses, but now with a road win at Wichita in tow?  I'm back in.  Could definitely be a 2 seed with a title here.  Problem is, though....Sunday championship game.  The committee will likely not consider any win they post on Sunday, and that win will be the difference between the 2 line and the 3 line.  The committee has a history of underseeding Sunday tournament winners.  Be prepared.

Wichita is on the 5 line, and frankly looking at it....the teams behind them aren't good enough to leapfrog them, and I can't find any way to move Wichita up to the 4 line.  Wichita as a 5 might be my single most confident seed prediction in the entire field right now.

Houston's non-con SoS is 227.  This likely means they're a half-step behind the others on the S-Curve. 

Tulsa probably should be a NIT team.  Temple is RPI 50 by the way.  What do you do with them and the NIT?  Or UCF at RPI 77?  Odds are one make it, maybe even both, or maybe neither.  Both are true bubble teams.  Memphis is behind them, even though they have the better conference record.

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