Saturday, March 10, 2018

3/10 S-CURVE

Pressure point 1:  The 2 line, #7 overall - made the move for Tennessee in that spot.  I do firmly believe committee bias will elevate a SEC champion to the 2 line, and UT takes Auburn's spot.  Subject to change. And I really wrestled with Purdue and Michigan St for that last spot.  What changed my mind?  I see Jerry Palm is an outlier, having Michigan St on the 2 line.  This single piece of evidence is all the motivation I need to talk myself out of that particular take.  MSU demotion it is.  Meanwhile, I really want to put Cincy on the 2 line, but I don't think I can sustain a healthy argument for them ahead of the aforementioned teams right now.

Pressure point 2:  The 3 line, #12 overall - made the move to WVU over Michigan.  Reasonable arguments can be made for either, and both have their non-con SoS problem.  Behind them, conference champs Arizona and Gonzaga don't have enough to pass either.

Pressure point 3:  The 5 line, #20 overall - toyed with a few different teams in that spot, but no one felt right.  In the end, wanted to move Kentucky there as they were my next team...and Florida swept them.  For now, I'm staying on Florida, but I don't feel good about it.

Pressure point 4:  The 7 line, #28 overall - strangely, I feel good about the teams on the 6 line and 7 line right now, up to #28 overall.  There's a bit of a roadblock here, where all the teams I could put there seem to...have flaws.  With that, I've decided to make a very aggressive move and launch Provi up 2 full seed lines.

Pressure point 5:  The 9 line, #34 overall - this is where I threw my hands up.  I don't know.  Throw 'em all into a bucket and pick them out.  There's going to be some severly flawed teams on the 9 line.  Best guess is the ACC and Big 12 gets the benefit of the doubt.  I clustered them all together from 34 through 38 in an act of defiance.

There are some very alarming SoS numbers in this group.  I'm looking at Va Tech and FSU here.

The 1 line:  Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
The 2 line:  North Carolina, Duke, Tennessee, Purdue
The 3 line:  Michigan St, Cincinnati, Auburn, West Virginia
The 4 line:  Michigan, Texas Tech, Arizona, Gonzaga
The 5 line:  Clemson, Ohio St, Wichita St, Florida
The 6 line:  Kentucky, Miami, TCU, Arkansas
The 7 line:  Houston, Texas A&M, Seton Hall, Providence
The 8 line:  Rhode Island, Creighton, Butler, Nevada
The 9 line:  Missouri, Virginia Tech, Florida St, Texas
The 10 line:  North Carolina St, Oklahoma, USC, St Mary's
The 11 line:  St Bonaventure, UCLA, Alabama, Baylor, Louisville, New Mexico St
The 12 line:  Loyola(Chi), Western Kentucky, Buffalo, Charleston
The 13 line:  South Dakota St, Murray St, UNC Greensboro, New Mexico
The 14 line:  Louisiana, Vermont, Montana, Bucknell
The 15 line:  Iona, Wright St, Lipscomb, Harvard
The 16 line:  Radford, UC Irvine, SE Louisiana, LIU-Brooklyn, Hampton, Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Current bubble status:  18 for 12 spots

Bubble in:
Virginia Tech
Florida St
Texas
North Carolina St

Next 4 in:
Oklahoma
USC
St Mary's
St Bonaventure

Last 4 in:
UCLA
Alabama
Baylor
Louisville

Last 4 out:
Marquette
Kansas St
Middle Tennessee
Arizona St

Next 2 out:
Oklahoma St
Syracuse

off the board:  Notre Dame, Penn St, Nebraska, Oregon, Utah, Georgia, Boise St, Washington, Mississippi St

NIT lines:
2:  Notre Dame, Penn St
3:  Nebraska, Oregon, Utah, Georgia
4:  Boise St, Washington, Mississippi St, Northeastern
5:  Maryland, Stanford, BYU, Davidson
6:  San Diego St, Tulsa
--probable cutline--
Last 4 out:  Temple, Old Dominion, Toledo, Boston College
autobid:  Rider, UC Davis, UNC Asheville, Northern Kentucky, Wagner, FGCU

10 comments:

Abhishek said...

Nicolette Shia Bio

Unknown said...

you are the only person who doesn't have Kansas State in on the bracket matrix site. You'll either be a genius or really wrong. There isn't a standout win for that team but there isn't a bad loss either. 4 quartile 1 wins and 5 quartile 2 wins and 0 quartile 3 or 4 losses.

I think you're gonna be wrong but time will tell.

HenryMuto said...

No team since the field expanded to 64 teams has ever had 8 losses and received a #1 seed but you think North Carolina and their 9 losses deserve it over 5 loss X team ? I guess losing at home to Wofford really doesn't matter either.

So you think North Carolina is going to set history ? The quad system is making things look all out of whack.

Xavier is 8-4 vs top 50, North Carolina is 11-5.

9 losses you shouldn't get a #1 seed period.

Kansas has some outstanding losses as well they have lost 3 and possibly 4 games that won't even make the tournament (Oklahoma State x 2, Washington) Arizona State.

Andrew said...

We have a long documented history of the selection committee leaving teams out with ugly SoS numbers. K-State has a non-con SoS of 327. Every year, without fail, the selection committee leaves out teams with that SoS number and causes a stir by doing so. I feel like I'm watching a horror movie and we're watching someone about to open a door that the killer is waiting behind. WE KNOW HOW THIS ENDS, EVERY SINGLE TIME. WE'VE SEEN THIS BEFORE. THIS ALWAYS HAPPENS THIS WAY. HOW DOES NO ONE ELSE SEE THIS COMING.

Andrew said...

I don't know if I'm pulling the trigger on UNC over X. UNC has played 21 Group 1 games. TWENTY ONE. That's insanity. No one else has played more than 15 based on a quick scan of records. I have no idea what to do with that. No one does.

Unknown said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Unknown said...

I was nearly certain it was non conference related. I would say that Oklahoma is KSU in reverse. They've got good non conference wins but they've gone 4-11 in the last 15 and haven't won away from home since dec of 2017

KSU does have 2 true road win out of conference against P6 teams unfortunately those teams weren't very good. KSU also 6 true road games overall against P6 conference including league play. With the big 12 being true round robin I think that helps them more than teams in the past.

You're out on that limb by yourself with this opinion! take a victory lap if you are right!!! I don't think you'll be correct but your opinion has merit.

HenryMuto said...

I think you need to put Kansas State in. If they were truly a bubble team then I agree that bad SOS would cost them but I think that 10-8 Big 12 mark is going to get them in.

I have an interesting question about USC. They have zero wins against the field but they have 4 quad 1 wins. So what matters more ? In the real world they beat no one and should not get in but with the new quad system they have 4 quad 1 wins.

So what matters reality of beating zero teams in the field or these "4 quad 1" wins ?

Jerry Palm says USC is out because they have zero wins vs field but most have USC in based on 4 quad 1 wins.

Which reality wins out ?

HenryMuto said...

When I say zero wins against the field I mean teams that are going to be for sure at large teams (they beat MT and NM State) we know NM State would not have been at large and MT is questionable.

Andrew said...

The reality in which Jerry Palm is wrong will win out.

That said, somewhat nervous about USC. I'm not so convinced if you do a straight comparison with, say, K-State. I'm realllllly on the fence with K-State right now. I'm on the damn fence with like 6 teams though. I don't have a good feel for what the committee is going to do with these new metrics this year.