Monday, January 23, 2017

Bubble watch, part VII: A-10/AAC

These are quickie profiles and writeups you can use in your evaluations.  Don’t expect eloquent thoughts, they’re just quick-hitters.



Dayton (14-4) (6-1) RPi 28 SoS 47
Vital signs:  5-3 R/N, non-con SoS 39, 1-2 vs. Top 50, 7-3 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  URI?
Bad losses:  @UMass, N-Nebraska, perhaps
7 top 100 wins…but a lot of them are marginal.  Profile is mostly saved by playing not bad teams in the non-con and mostly taking care of business.  There is some value in that.  But not a lot.  Better hold serve in the A-10.

VCU (15-5) (5-2) RPI 42 SoS 69
Vital signs:  6-4 R/N, non-con SoS 66, 1-2 vs. Top 50, 3-3 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  Middle Tennessee…LaSalle is the 2nd best?
Bad losses:  GT at home, @Fordham
Not a great profile.  Needs heft at the top, likely won’t get it.  Needs depth, likely won’t get it.  It’s a tough case to make, although the computer numbers aren’t terrible.

Rhode Island (12-6) (4-2) RPI 48 SoS 45
Vital signs:  3-5 R/N, non-con SoS 30, 1-2 vs. Top 50, 2-6 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  N-Cincy
Bad losses:  home to LaSalle
The good news is there’s a decent signature win to lean on (but nothing behind it).  Plus, many losses make sense (at Dayton, Provi, and Valpo).  Went on the road and lost.  They kind of needed to convert one or two of those swing games on the road.  As is, I’m just not sure what to do with this.

NIT Watch:
LaSalle (11-6) (5-2) RPI 64 SoS 52 – not the worst profile in the world, but their 2nd best win is Bucknell and they lost to TSU.
Richmond (11-8) (5-2) RPI 121 SoS 103 – mostly being listed because they’re near the top of the standings and ruining everything for the conference with their non-starter of a resume.
St Bonaventure (12-6) (4-2) RPI 100 SoS 118 – no top 100 wins.  Non-starter.
George Mason (12-6) (3-3) RPI 134 SoS 196 – terrible SoS.  Non-starter.
Davidson (9-8) (2-4) RPI 123 SoS 97
George Washington (10-9) (2-4) RPI 142 SoS 102
St Joseph’s (9-9) (2-4) RPI 107 SoS 55
UMass (12-8) (2-5) RPI 112 SoS 91 – man, this conference is good at piling up mediocre teams.  Look forward to 7 teams barely missing the NIT here.



Cincinnati (17-2) (7-0) RPI 16 SoS 59
Vital signs:  6-2 R/N, non-con SoS 38, 1-2 vs. Top 50, 8-2 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  SMU, @Iowa St, @Houston?
Bad losses:  N-URI doesn’t look so hot
Good overall numbers help camoflauge the lack of signature wins.  Safely in the tournament.  Just a matter of seeding them.  Good road/neutral record helps the situation.


SMU (17-4) (7-1) RPI 31 SoS 87
Vital signs:  4-4 R/N, non-con SoS 101, 2-2 vs. Top 50, 6-4 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  N-Pitt, TCU, @Memphis?
Bad losses:  @Boise perhaps
Relatively safe for now, no red flags in the resume, just need to stay above water.  AAC’s lack of quality teams makes this mission tougher than usual.

NIT Watch:
Tulsa (11-7) (5-1) RPI 103 SoS 104 – pretty telling I can’t put another team here on the bubble.  Tulsa has no quality win yet.
Memphis (15-5) (5-2) RPI 77 SoS 92 – non-con SoS of 181.  Did beat South Carolina at home, but need more.  So much more.
Central Florida (14-5) (5-2) RPI 96 SoS 190 – SoS problems, quality win problems.  Nope.
Houston (13-7) (4-4) RPI 68 SoS 67 – probably 3rd best resume in the conference, beat URI, but are losing all the swing games they needed.
Temple (10-10) (1-6) RPI 75 SoS 23 – man, they had wins over Florida St and West Virginia and they’ve really messed this up.

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