Monday, January 23, 2017

Bubble watch, part V: B1G

These are quickie profiles and writeups you can use in your evaluations.  Don’t expect eloquent thoughts, they’re just quick-hitters.


Wisconsin (16-3) (5-1) RPI 25 SoS 73
Vital signs:  5-3 R/N, non-con SoS 212, 1-3 vs. Top 50, 7-3 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  @Minny, @Indiana?
Bad losses:  none
Non-con SoS seems sketchy.  Played Maui and got burned with Tennessee and G’town.  Syracuse and Oklahoma and Marquette…wins that now have little value.  Still, they’re fine overall at all losses are very reasonable.  The chance at a high-end seed might be a problem, though.

Purdue (16-4) (5-2) RPI 27 SoS 47
Vital signs:  5-2 R/N, non-con SoS 107, 3-3 vs. Top 50, 6-3 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  N-Notre Dame, Wisky, Illinois?
Bad losses:  @Iowa, perhaps
Much like the rest of the conference, they lack high-end wins (and here, they lost their chances to nova and L’ville).  They’ll be mostly fine, but again this’ll hurt seeding only.

Maryland (16-2) (5-1) RPI 21 SoS 49
Vital signs:  7-0 R/N, non-con SoS 87, 3-1 vs. Top 50, 7-2 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  Indiana, K-State, swept Illinois?
Bad losses:  home to Nebraska
Here’s a case where the non-con SoS might be deceiving.  K-State, Pitt, Okie State, Georgetown all created some artificial value.  They need high-end wins…and aren’t going to have much of a chance to get it.  The road/neutral record is still very good, so I’m not worried about selection for now.  Just seeding.


Indiana (14-6) (4-3) RPI 73 SoS 67
Vital signs:  2-4 R/N, non-con SoS 178, 4-4 vs. Top 50, 5-5 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  UNC, N-Kansas, MSU
Bad losses:  @IPFW, for sure, probably Nebraska too
Probably safe thanks to the high-end wins, and now starting to win the other games they should.  Not much to say unless they start dropping games again.

Northwestern (16-4) (5-2) RPI 34 SoS 74
Vital signs:  6-3 R/N, non-con SoS 145, 2-4 vs. Top 50, 5-4 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  Dayton, Wake?
Bad losses:  none
Sometimes, just winning the games you’re supposed to is good enough.  Quintessential bubble resume – no signature wins that sparkle, but no losses that damage it badly.  Good road/neutral record, mostly from being the teams they should.  They’ll need another high end win or two, but they have enough chances.  I think.

Michigan St (12-8) (4-3) RPI 41 SoS 11
Vital signs:  3-7 R/N, non-con SoS 17, 3-4 vs. Top 50, 5-7 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  swept Minny, Northwestern?  Wichita?
Bad losses:  Penn St, Northeastern
Scheduled up, so they’ve earned a bit of wiggle room…that they’ve mostly blown.  Another case where February will make the resume, but the high-end win chances aren’t as plentiful as they’d usually be.

Minnesota (15-5) (3-4) RPI 19 SoS 10
Vital signs:  3-3 R/N, non-con SoS 13, 3-4 vs. Top 50, 8-5 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  @Purdue, @NW, Arky
Bad losses:  @Penn St, perhaps
The good non-con SoS is a point in its favor, and @Purdue is likely to stand up as a good enough signature win.  Probably could be a lock, but could use more depth of wins.

Michigan (13-7) (3-4) RPI 69 SoS 53
Vital signs:  2-5 R/N, non-con SoS 124, 2-6 vs. Top 50, 5-6 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  N-SMU, Illinois?  N-Marquette?
Bad losses:  Va Tech?  @Iowa
That SMU win is kind of a saver right now.  They need more quality wins, more high-end stuff, more road/neutral wins.  Your standard bubble resume at the moment.

Illinois (11-8) (2-5) RPI 49 SoS 13
Vital signs:  3-6 R/N, non-con SoS 37, 1-5 vs Top 50, 5-8 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  N-VCU, NC State?  Michigan?
Bad losses:  Winthrop
A shiny SoS and at least the one quality win are the only two factors that bring them to the at-large board at the moment.

NIT Watch:
Penn St (11-9) (3-4) RPI 71 SoS 25 – picked up wins over MSU and Minny in conference to stay afloat, but this resume likely isn’t going anywhere.
Iowa (11-9) (3-4) RPI 112 SoS 42 – nah.  But if they get hot they already have wins over ISU and Purdue in pocket.
Ohio St (12-8) (2-5) RPI 84 SoS 48 – also nah.

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