Monday, January 23, 2017

Bubble watch, part I: ACC

These are quickie profiles and writeups you can use in your evaluations.  Don’t expect eloquent thoughts, they’re just quick-hitters.


Florida St (18-2) (6-1) RPI 5 SoS 14
Vital signs:  4-2 R/N, non-con SoS 108, 9-1 vs. Top 50, 10-2 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  @Virginia, Duke, Louisville, Minny, Florida…
Bad losses:  N-Temple perhaps
Time to talk about them on the 1 line.  But that non-con SoS, and the 9 Top 50 wins have a couple deceiving teams in there…but still, we have to discuss it.

Virginia (15-3) (5-2) RPI 17 SoS 33
Vital signs:  7-1 R/N, non-con SoS 79, 4-3 vs. Top 50, 7-3 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  @Cal, @Louisville, Provi?
Bad losses:  none
Non-con not quite as ironclad as you’d think.  Iowa, Provi, Ohio St aren’t as good as usual.  They’ll have to rely on conference resume a bit more, and it’s merely great, not outstanding.

Louisville (16-4) (4-3) RPI 7 SoS 1
Vital signs:  5-3 R/N, non-con SoS 8, 5-4 vs. Top 50, 9-4 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  Purdue, Kentucky, Duke
Bad losses:  none
While only 5-4 vs. top 50, might be a better resume than that would suggest.  Obviously the #1 SoS helps.  Signature wins everywhere, although at home.  Add in some road wins and we can talk about the 1 line.

North Carolina (17-3) (6-1) RPI 9 SoS 27
Vital signs:  7-3 R/N, non-con SoS 31, 4-1 vs. Top 50, 9-3 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  N-Wisky, FSU, @Clemson?
Bad losses:  @Indiana, @GT?
Not as strong a resume as you think, at least for a chance at the 1 line.  Needs depth of quality wins for that 1 seed, but opportunities will come.  Everything looks great but not superb.

Duke (15-4) (3-3) RPI 14 SoS 29
Vital signs:  5-4 R/N, non-con SoS 50, 3-4 vs. Top 50, 6-4 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  Florida, URI, MSU
Did you know they didn’t play a true road game in the non-con and still haven’t won a true road game?  Fix that before we talk about the top 2 lines, fellas.

Notre Dame (17-3) (6-1) RPI 19 SoS 44
Vital signs:  5-3 R/N, non-con SoS 187, 5-3 vs. Top 50, 6-3 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  Louisville, @Pitt, @VT, N-NW
Bad losses:  none
Marginal non-con numbers and resume kind of keep them a half-step behind the ACC elite.  We’ll see how much that hurts later.


Virginia Tech (15-4) (4-3) RPI 37 SoS 74
Vital signs:  4-3 R/N, non-con SoS 269, 3-2 vs. Top 50, 7-4 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  Duke, @Clemson?  Ole Miss?
Bad losses:  @NC St?  N-A&M?
Boy, that non-con SoS is a killer.  Not the worst collection of wins in it (@Michigan, N-Nebraska, N-UNM included), but the committee hates that thing.  Harmed more by too many cupcakes than anything else.  In for now, but I’m not excited.

Wake Forest (12-7) (3-4) RPI 23 SoS 5
Vital signs:  5-5 R/N, non-con SoS 12, 0-7 vs. Top 50, 4-7 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  Miami, @NCSU?
Bad losses:  Clemson at home
Poster child for bad RPIing.  Jesus.  23 my ass.  Those other top 100 wins are Charleston and Bucknell, by the way.  Actually only that one bad loss, so they can win their way to the bubble, but right now they count as a top 25 opponent for everyone else’s benefit.  What in the literal f.

Georgia Tech (11-8) (3-4) RPI 94 SoS 56
Vital signs:  2-5 R/N, non-con SoS 275, 3-5 vs. Top 50, 4-7 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  @VCU, UNC, Clemson?
Bad losses:  @Penn St?  @Tennessee?
Would really have a chance if they’d win a couple of their swing games.  As is, a longshot, but still on the board because of that top-end win over UNC.

Miami (12-6) (2-4) RPI 81 SoS 94
Vital signs:  4-5 R/N, non-con SoS 263, 1-4 vs. Top 50, 3-5 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  @Pitt, NC State?
Bad losses:  @Syracuse
Not a good situation.  Lost most of their tough games, terrible non-con SoS.  Just not good enough.

Pittsburgh (12-7) (1-5) RPI 38 SoS 17
Vital signs:  3-5 R/N, non-con SoS 28, 2-3 vs. Top 50, 5-5 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  @Maryland, Virginia
Bad losses:  @Syracuse?  N-Duquesne
ACC conference play is eating them up.  Good resume turning bad.

Clemson (11-8) (1-6) RPI 47 SoS 16
Vital signs:  4-5 R/N, non-con SoS 59, 4-6 vs. Top 50, 6-7 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  @South Carolina, UNC-W
Bad losses:  N-Oklahoma, @GT?
4 Top 50 wins!  UNC-W is semi-legitimate…Wake isn’t.  If conference play wasn’t destroying their record they’d have a chance.

NIT Watch:
Syracuse (11-9) (3-4) RPI 130 SoS 65 – seems like they can only get in the way of the rest of the conference at this point.
North Carolina St (13-7) (2-5) RPI 79 SoS 57 – too many teams ahead of them

No comments: