Monday, January 23, 2017

Bubble watch, part III: Big 12

These are quickie profiles and writeups you can use in your evaluations.  Don’t expect eloquent thoughts, they’re just quick-hitters.


Kansas (18-1) (7-0) RPI 6 SoS 32
Vital signs:  7-1 R/N, non-con SoS 43, 4-0 vs. Top 50, 10-1 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  N-Duke, @Iowa St?  @TCU?  Lighter than you think
Bad losses:  N-Indiana if you’re competing for a 1 seed
The schedule isn’t as airtight as it was in years past.  Indiana fell back; UAB and Georgia are down, Stanford and Nebraska aren’t helping.  Could matter if we end up picking nits for the 1 line, but then again, racking up Big 12 wins will be sufficient for that.

Baylor (17-1) (6-1) RPI 1 SoS 7
Vital signs:  7-1 R/N, non-con SoS 7, 7-1 vs. Top 50, 11-1 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  Oregon, N-Louisville, Xavier
Bad losses:  none
Only nit to pick is only 3 true road wins; but after getting K-State and TCU, they’ll probably be fine there.  Also reaping the RPI rewards of the conference as a whole.  Non-con SoS inside the top 10 despite 2 SWAC teams.  What kind of sorcery is that?

West Virginia (15-4) (4-3) RPI 43 SoS 89
Vital signs:  5-3 R/N, non-con SoS 262, 4-1 vs. Top 50, 5-3 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  Baylor, @Virginia, TCU?
Bad losses:  Oklahoma, @TTU perhaps, N-Temple
That non-con SoS is going to be an issue, and likely because of bad cupcakes.  Too many home games against bad teams sunk them.  Do get credit for their one big road game at Virginia.  We’ll see how bad the seed gets hurt.


Iowa St (12-6) (4-3) RPI 52 SoS 46
Vital signs:  5-4 R/N, non-con SoS 162, 0-5 vs. Top 50, 3-5 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  N-Miami, @OSU?  TTU?
Bad losses:  @Iowa
Pretty bubbly.  Non-con is pretty bland against a bland schedule.  Will need to win a game or two they shouldn’t, and not lose more than a game or two they shouldn’t.

Kansas St (15-4) (4-3) RPI 39 SoS 78
Vital signs:  4-3 R/N, non-con SoS 264, 1-3 vs. Top 50, 2-4 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  WVU, @Okie St?
Bad losses:  @TTU, perhaps
Only 2 top 100 wins, ugly SoS numbers.  Pretty obvious what the issue is.  Time to fix it, however.

TCU (13-5) (3-4) RPI 30 SoS 34
Vital signs:  3-3 R/N, non-con SoS 103, 1-4 vs. Top 50, 4-5 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  Illinois St is the top 50, Iowa St?
Bad losses:  @TTU, perhaps
Two of the top 100 wins are Arky St and TSU…so this is dicey.  They’re going to need a better win than Iowa St at home to make it.  This profile feels a little mirage-y.

Texas Tech (14-5) (3-4) RPI 82 SoS 127
Vital signs:  2-4 R/N, non-con SoS 332, 3-1 vs. Top 50, 3-4 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  WVU, TCU, K-State
Bad losses:  @Oklahoma, N-Auburn
Let’s face it, they’re only here because of the WVU win.  Look at that non-con SoS!  It’s as awful as it looks.

NIT Watch:
Oklahoma St (10-8) (1-6) RPI 54 SoS 25 – nothing like seeing wins over UConn, Georgetown, and Wichita evaporate into nothing, huh?

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