Monday, January 23, 2017

Bubble watch, part IV: Pac-12

These are quickie profiles and writeups you can use in your evaluations.  Don’t expect eloquent thoughts, they’re just quick-hitters.


Arizona (18-2) (7-0) RPI 8 SoS 21
Vital signs:  8-2 R/N, non-con SoS 35, 3-2 vs. Top 50, 9-2 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  @UCLA, @USC, @Cal
Bad losses:  no
Work being done in conference play is helping erase a modest non-con.  The losses are plenty forgivable, it’s just that there’s not a lot of meat behind those two losses to help bolster the resume.  For this reason, the 1 line is probably out of reach.

UCLA (19-2) (6-2) RPI 22 SoS 79
Vital signs:  8-1 R/N, non-con SoS 196, 1-2 vs. Top 50, 8-2 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  @Kentucky, Cal, @Utah
Bad losses:  no
Signature wins on the road are everything.  Some very good features, with one mildly alarming one (that non-con SoS).  Seeding them is tricky, and falling behind Arizona in the conference race makes it trickier.

Oregon (17-2) (7-0) RPI 13 SoS 38
Vital signs:  5-2 R/N, non-con SoS 41, 2-1 vs. Top 50, 9-2 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  UCLA, USC, Valpo?
Bad losses:  N-Georgetown
That G’town loss is fatal given how it trapped them on the wrong side of the Maui bracket.  The good SoS is mostly a product of bad team avoidance, but they still won all those games.  The 1 line may be lost for them, though.


USC (17-4) (4-4) RPI 32 SoS 67
Vital signs:  7-2 R/N, non-con SoS 133, 1-2 vs. Top 50, 4-4 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  SMU, @A&M?  nah
Bad losses:  Cal at home I suppose
4 losses are reasonable conference losses, but that just means a lot of quality win chances are already by the boards for this team.  Middling profile will need to add some more to make the tourney.

California (14-6) (5-3) RPI 51 SoS 40
Vital signs:  3-4 R/N, non-con SoS 93, 1-5 vs. Top 50, 1-6 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  @USC, and that’s about it
Bad losses:  N-San Diego St at this point
A case where the entire resume will have to be built in-conference.  Non-con is filled with nothing terrible, but no quality win to lean on.

Utah (12-5) (5-2) RPI 60 SoS 82
Vital signs:  5-3 R/N, non-con SoS 254, 1-4 vs. Top 50, 1-4 vs. Top 100
Signature wins:  USC…and literally nothing even close
Bad losses:  N-San Francisco
Second best win is…Colorado?  Holy moly what a disaster.  That non-con SoS is a clue.  How in the world can they be in right now?

NIT Watch:
Stanford (10-9) (3-5) RPI 59 SoS 18 – shiny SoS is only going to help the rest of the conference, not them.  Missing quality in the resume pretty clearly.

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