Friday, March 6, 2015

Southern conference tournament preview

This is part 13 of a 33-part series in this blog, designed to give you all the information you need to know about each conference's tournament, and the postseason prospects of every single team in the conference.

Final standings:
Wofford 16-2
Chattanooga 15-3
Mercer 12-6
Western Carolina 9-9
East Tennessee St 8-10
VMI 7-11
Citadel 6-12
UNC Greensboro 6-12
Samford 6-12
Furman 5-13

Conference tournament format:  Straight-up, 10 teams playing from Friday March 6 to Monday March 9.

Bracket:
1) Wofford vs. 8/9) UNC Greensboro/Samford
4) Western Carolina vs. 5) East Tennessee St
2) Chattanooga vs. 7/10) Citadel/Furman
3) Mercer vs. 6) VMI

The stakes:
Wofford for awhile was on the fringe of at-large consideration.  Unfortunately, they took a catastrophic loss at the Citadel to kill it.  The loss at home to Chattanooga wasn't awful, just like the loss at Bill & Mary...but they didn't have many opportunities for decent wins, so they had to win those swing games against Chattanooga and W&M (they did win one swing game vs. Sam Houston St).  They played a top 20 non-con SoS and beat NC State (gaining steam!) on the road, so a 12 or 13 seed is in line.  But just a bit too far adrift.

Wofford is actually a good test case on how much the committee pays attention to the bottom seeds.  If they just go by RPI, Wofford will be a 12.  If they just go by conference rank, Wofford would be a 15.  Keep an eye on this; their seed will be a future hint for bracketologists on how to seed these teams in future years.

Chattanooga has the only other RPI inside the top 175 in this league.  They could get a 15 depending on what happens elsewhere.  Everyone else would be ticketed for Dayton.  The SoCon, in the conference RPI, is actually a bit down this year.

As for the CBI/CIT, Chattanooga is a cinch, and Mercer is borderline but probably in as well.  ETSU is the only other eligible team but is pretty far down in the pecking order.

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