This is part 17 of a 33-part series in this blog, designed to give you all the information you need to know about each conference's tournament, and the postseason prospects of every single team in the conference.
Final standings:
Virginia 16-2
Duke 15-3
Notre Dame 14-4
Louisville 12-6
North Carolina 11-7
Miami 10-8
North Carolina St 10-8
Syracuse 9-9
Clemson 8-10
Florida St 8-10
Pittsburgh 8-10
Wake Forest 5-13
Boston College 4-14
Georgia Tech 3-15
Virginia 2-16
Conference tournament format: Hosted at Greensboro over 5 days, from Tuesday March 10 to Saturday March 15. Syracuse is sitting out for Boeheim's sins.
Bracket:
1) Virginia vs. 8/9) Clemson/Florida St
4) Louisville vs. winner of 5) North Carolina vs. 12/13) Boston College/Georgia Tech
2) Duke vs. 7/10) North Carolina St/Pittsburgh
3) Notre Dame vs. winner of 6) Miami vs. 11/14) Wake Forest/Virginia Tech
The stakes:
I'm holding onto Virginia as the overall 2 seed. Barely. After re-reviewing the profiles, you can make the argument Duke has the better set of victories. But they clearly have the worse set of losses. I don't know. This is razor thin, and I wouldn't stand in the way of anyone who wants to rank Duke ahead. The good news is that this tournament will solve the dilemma. One of these two teams, at least, is going to lose. If either win this tournament, they'll have the #2 overall seed and the east regional. Period.
The loser? Probably a 1 seed...but maybe not. If Wisconsin and Villanova and Arizona all win and lurk...I could see the committee rewarding two other double conference champions instead of a runner-up here. And remember, this tournament ends Saturday (instead of Sunday in years' past), so the committee will have time to drop a loser of Virginia/Duke a seed line. Why is this important, by the way? If Duke or Virginia drop to the highest 2 seed, geography dictates they go in the midwest regional, where Kentucky looms. The stakes just got a lot higher, folks. Imagine a Virginia/Duke final where the winner gets the #2 overall seed and the East region, and the loser is the 2nd seed in Kentucky's regional.
Notre Dame is impossible to seed. I'm held firm on them on the 3 line for awhile. The bad news is they have a lot of teams just right behind them...but wait. That's actually good news. 3 Big 12 teams right behind them (ISU, OU, Baylor). And at least 2 of them (and maybe all 3) have another loss to absorb. I think Notre Dame on the 3 line is inevitable.
Louisville's recent big win probably has them back to the 4 line, and UNC's somewhere around the 5 line. They're obviously playing for seeding, and it would be easy to assume the winner of their probable semifinal matchup would be seeded higher. But we'll see. There's still plenty of variables in play, given how tight the seed race is on the 4-6 lines.
Deeper in the field, NC State starts with a desperate Pitt team. If NC State handles that one, they're good to go for the NCAA tournament, and their game with Duke would be icing. Pitt needs to beat NC State...and Duke...and maybe Notre Dame too to be a bubble player.
Miami is your one true bubble team. After Wake/VT, they would get Notre Dame, in what I imagine will be a all-or-nothing game. They're obviously out with a loss...and maybe in with a win. They might need to beat Duke too. I'm not sure. It would be close.
Clemson's probably a true NIT bubble team. Probably in, because they do have wins like LSU and Arkansas and @NC State and a couple others that are somewhat better than most NIT teams can supply. Florida St is over .500 but nowhere near the NIT.
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