Wednesday, March 18, 2015

First Four issues

So the NCAA has some issues with the First Four.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/tournament/2015/story/_/id/12491799/ncaa-tournament-ncaa-says-first-four-structure-need-tweak

Cliff notes:  the current format of the First Four is causing issues with the selection committee.  Why is this?

This year, there were a million logistical nightmares with the First Four. Dayton was the last team in (obviously, they get a home game...let's set that aside for a second).  If UConn had won, with 45 minutes until the selection show, Dayton would've been pushed out of the field, changing the teams going to Dayton (UCLA would then be heading to Dayton).

But that was further complicated in that Dayton played for a AQ bid earlier in the day. So the NCAA had to build 4 contingencies for UConn and Dayton, because if Dayton won, UConn would've pushed out Boise St. And all of this happens just minutes and hours before the selection show.

On top of all this, you throw in BYU's no Sunday rule and being locked into the Tuesday first four game.

As someone who builds a bracket, with this many restrictions on the board, building a proper bracket, and in time, is impossible.  With so many variables in play on Sunday morning, the committee likely had to spend all day Sunday building different brackets to account for all the possibilities.  Don't forget, the committee also had to deal with Wisconsin's seed in the middle of all this.

Why does this matter?  Ideally, the committee should spend Sunday morning scrubbing seeds.  This is the time to look back and adjust any final seeds that look out of place.  Instead, they have to spend all their time building 12 brackets, and under immense time constraints.  That's how we get weird matchups in the tournament.

So, how do we fix the First Four to make the committee's job more reasonable?

Prediction: the First Four format WILL change. The NCAA will request a grace period of 2-3 hours between the last game and the selection show, instead of 30 minutes, in order to build the bracket. Once CBS rejects this request (because money), the NCAA will put the 8 lowest ranked conference champions in the First Four.  These teams can be placed in those spots without the same logistical requirements that it takes to fit at-large teams in there.  Plus, truTV has the TV rights to these games and aren't getting a lot of attention for them.  They can manage the mild ratings hit.

Now, doing this has some advantages and disadvantages for the AQ teams.  The one obvious disadvantage is having to play an extra game.  The advantages, though:
1) every game you play in the tourney is worth money.  If you play 1 game, you get 1 unit.  2 games, 2 units.  This includes the First Four.  So, for example, Hampton is going to get 2 units, while Lafayette, if they lose to 'Nova, only gets 1 unit.  Teams that win in the First Four win extra money for their conference.  For the tiny conferences, the amount of one extra unit is not trivial.  Giving the little guys more money isn't a terrible thing.
2) if the bottom 8 AQ teams play in the First Four games, you would theoretically have what used to be 15 seeds play in these games.  If these quasi-15 seeds win, they play a 1 seed.  Now, obviously, a 16 has never beaten a 1.  But if a 15 seed, masquerading as a 16 seed, plays this game...a chance of a 16 over 1 upset increases slightly.  Anything to toughen up the 1/16 game is a positive in my book.

So there you go.  I think this change is coming.  The NCAA can't have it stay status quo, IMO.  The little guys get screwed in terms of playing an extra game, but...they ARE financially compensated for it.

2 comments:

HenryMuto said...

When they first announced they were going to 68 teams a few years back this is what I was hoping they would do because like you said it be like a 15 seed playing a 1 and to take that another step it be like a 14 vs 2, 13 vs 3, ect which means all the way down the line the low seeds would be stronger with more chance to challenge and upset someone.

Problem is I just don't think they will do that. Hope they would though.

An extra 2 hours before the bracket would be nice I had to basically skip watching most of the final 2 games Sunday to do my seeds and figure out my last 8 teams in.

Andrew said...

I think it's coming. The current setup is untenable, and when the NCAA puts Boise St in the first four when Texas and UCLA narrowly miss, it's obvious ratings are irrelevant to them.