Thursday, March 5, 2015

Colonial Athletic Association conference tournament preview

This is part 12 of a 33-part series in this blog, designed to give you all the information you need to know about each conference's tournament, and the postseason prospects of every single team in the conference.

Final standings:
William & Mary 12-6
UNC Wilmington 12-6
Northeastern 12-6
James Madison 12-6
Hofstra 10-8
Delaware 9-9
Drexel 9-9
Elon 6-12
Towson 5-13
Charleston 3-15

Conference tournament format:  All 10 schools are headed to Baltimore.  The bracket is straight-up, from Friday March 6 to Monday March 9.  Simple.

Bracket:
1) William & Mary vs. 8/9) Elon/Towson
4) James Madison vs. 5) Hofstra
2) UNC Wilmington vs. 7/10) Drexel/Charleston
3) Northeastern vs. 6) Delaware

The stakes:
For any of the top 4, they'll avoid the 16 line, but JMU and UNCW are teams that might be on the 15 line.  UNCW in particular seems to be a half-step behind the other 3.  JMU at least beat Richmond, but the 15 line is their likely destination.

William & Mary scheduled, and while they could only beat Wofford of significance, they should reap the rewards and at least get to the 14 line.  NU had a more middling schedule, but beat some teams of note (@FSU, @Richmond).  I wouldn't rule out the 13 line for them, but it might depend on how many other conference leaders fail to make the tournament.  Either way, any of these top 4 teams will avoid the 16 line and have a fighting chance in round 1.

Bill and Mary has the NIT bid; I doubt anyone else makes it there, but maybe, just maybe, Northeastern.  All 4 can book their CBI/CIT bids, I guess.  Hofstra is also well above .500, but we'll see how many teams the CBI/CIT can hold from a single conference.

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