SoCon conference tournament preview

This is part 10 of a 32-part series.

Standings:
Wofford 18-0
UNC Greensboro 15-3
Furman 13-5
East Tennessee St 13-5
Chattanooga 7-11
Mercer 6-12
Samford 6-12
Citadel 4-14
VMI 4-14
Western Carolina 4-14

Format:
Traditional format, March 8-11.  Neutral site in Asheville.

Matchups:
1) Wofford vs. 7/10) VMI/Western Carolina
4) East Tennessee St vs. 5) Chattanooga
3) Furman vs. 6) Mercer
2) UNC Greensboro vs. 7/10) Samford/Citadel

The stakes:

Let's talk about the conference as a whole, because everything here is the absolute perfect storm for creating an at-large bid from a mid-major conference.

Their CNET is 11.  They had a big year in the non-con, producing big results OOC.  The key thing for mid-major conferences is limiting the damage the conference does to itself when they play each other.  Checkmark on this one.

The top 4 teams separated bigtime from the rest of the pack.  This was a big boon, because it allowed the 4 teams to get 6 quality games on the schedule.  Wofford NET 14, UNCG 58, Furman 44, ETSU 66.  That's 6 games against quality opposition put on the resume.  That's huge.

Add it all up, and you get Wofford, who's in the lockbox.  Sweeping the #11 conference in the country, and having 3 Q1 wins in the bank.  Those 3 Q1 wins?  The other conference members on the road.  They did whiff against UNC/Kansas/Miss St/Oklahoma, but the conference schedule picked them up and saved their resume.  And hey, they at least won at South Carolina.  They have no losses outside of Q1...the only thing you wish they had was a win over a surefire tournament team, to make the argument easier.  But at this point, I can't see leaving this team out.  When you don't lose to bad competition at all, you'll stand out in this bubble environment.

Now, what do you do with Furman?  A win at Villanova, but they missed their other 5 chances at a Q1 win (4 of those chances were in conference play).  Did go 3-0 against Q2 competition.  One terrible Q4 loss.  Is there enough here to make the case?  One damning factor:  non-con SoS 281.  They won at Loyola and Villanova....and the rest of their non-con is actually quite terrible.  There's no depth whatsoever.  They split with UNCG and ETSU....I have a feeling if they could erase their Q4 loss, or get one more than a split against UNCG/ETSU, then they'd be in.  But their margin of error was too thin given their non-con SoS.  Still viable though.  The problem?  Wofford isn't on their side of the bracket, so UNCG is the best win they can pick up to enhance the resume between now and then.

I really, really want to make the case for UNCG.  But their best OOC result are Q3 wins, with all their work coming in conference play.  They swept ETSU and split with Furman...is that enough?  Probably not.  They're behind Furman in the pecking order, and getting 3 out of this conference feels like an impossible mission.  Still, being this good in this conference has to mean a NIT bid...right?  Right?  I hope so.  I will riot if it isn't.

ETSU is a tougher case to make for the NIT, as they only won 1 game against the other conference members (home Furman), and they only have 1 OOC win that isn't a Q4 win.  Plus a few Q2 losses OOC.  I'd love to see them in the NIT too but I predict they get squeezed.