EAST 33
@Columbus
1) Virginia vs. 16) Norfolk St/Prairie View A&M
8) Oklahoma vs. 9) VCU
@San Jose
4) Kansas St vs. 13) Harvard
5) Virginia Tech vs. 12) Alabama/Indiana
@Jacksonville
3) LSU vs. 14) Vermont
6) Nevada vs. 11) Texas
@Des Moines
2) Michigan St vs. 15) Colgate
7) Wofford vs. 10) Utah St
MIDWEST 35
@Columbia
1) Tennessee vs. 16) Sam Houston St
8) Louisville vs. 9) Washington
@San Jose
4) Wisconsin vs. 13) UC Irvine
5) Villanova vs. 12) Lipscomb
@Tulsa
3) Texas Tech vs. 14) Loyola(Chi)
6) Mississippi St vs. 11) Ohio St
@Jacksonville
2) North Carolina vs. 15) Georgia St
7) Auburn vs. 10) Minnesota
SOUTH 34
@Columbia
1) Duke vs. 16) Campbell
8) Iowa vs. 9) Ole Miss
@Salt Lake City
4) Kansas vs. 13) New Mexico St
5) Marquette vs. 12) Temple
@Hartford
3) Purdue vs. 14) Hofstra
6) Buffalo vs. 11) Florida
@Columbus
2) Kentucky vs. 15) Wright St
7) Cincinnati vs. 10) St John's
WEST 34
@Salt Lake City
1) Gonzaga vs. 16) St Francis(PA)/Iona
8) UCF vs. 9) Syracuse
@Hartford
4) Florida St vs. 13) Old Dominion
5) Maryland vs. 12) TCU/Seton Hall
@Tulsa
3) Houston vs. 14) South Dakota St
6) Iowa St vs. 11) Belmont
@Des Moines
2) Michigan vs. 15) Montana
7) Baylor vs. 10) Arizona St
2 comments:
Are you being too harsh on the ACC? I'm a fan so I might be biased, but I don't get the disregard for Clemson and NC State while putting in schools like Indiana and TCU.
Clemson and NCSU are better than most of the Bubble teams by Kenpom rating. In fact, Clemson would be the highest Kenpom ranked team not in the tournament at#29. They're ranked right next to Marquette and Cincinnati; in other words, a pretty good team. They've had terrible luck in close games yet still only have 12 losses. Their schedule is a bit worse than IU, but their Noncon SOS is actually stronger. If they win against Syracuse tomorrow and win the 8/9 game in the ACC tourney, I think they should easily be in.
NCSU did have that awful non-con, but the impact is easily overstated. They played Wisconsin, Vandy, Penn State, and Auburn. Indiana only had five non-con games against major conference teams. The biggest issue is that the mid-majors NCSU played were terrible (and Darius Garland got hurt), but while playing the #330 team instead of the #200 team tanks your SOS, your win probability is not that different in those two games (especially at home). The implication is you think NCSU would have 5 extra losses with Indiana's schedule. Do you really think so?
As far as NC State goes, it's all entirely based on the non-con SoS. The committee has a very, very long history of bouncing teams with terrible non-con SoS numbers. Vandy and Penn St aren't that great (PSU's NET rating is one of the most incredible outliers I've ever seen).
And I do think the win probability changes significantly when you play the #200 team versus the #330 team. Given that NCSU has a couple quad 3 losses, I think they suffer a dumb loss or two if they had the #200 ranked non-con SoS instead of #352. And to answer your question, I don't think NCSU gets to .500 if they play Indiana's schedule (but that's just conjecture).
I'm with you more on Clemson...they need wins over tournament teams. If they beat Syracuse and win the 8/9 game in the ACCT, that problem takes care of itself, to a degree. They'd be in for me under that scenario. Just not putting them in as currently standing.
TCU and Indiana have more wins over tourney teams, hence why I lean towards them.
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