I've dropped Gonzaga to the 2 line, but relax, they're moving back to the 1 line tomorrow. Yes, it's weird, but there's logic behind it. A healthy Zion means Duke HAS to be on the 1 line right now. But either UNC or Duke will lose tomorrow, and Gonzaga will take their spot on the 1 line back. For one day, though, I need to funnel Duke back to the top line.
That last spot on the 3 line is vulnerable. Go get it, everyone on the 4 line.
Indiana and NC State losses give me the opening to slot Furman back in. I dunno, part of this rings true to me. 2 mid-majors in the last 4 in, while 2 others get snubbed. Feels like a committee human-based compromise to me.
The 1 line: Virginia, Kentucky, North Carolina, Duke
The 2 line: Gonzaga, LSU, Tennessee, Michigan St
The 3 line: Houston, Michigan, Purdue, Texas Tech
The 4 line: Florida St, Kansas, Wisconsin, Kansas St
The 5 line: Virginia Tech, Mississippi St, Marquette, Auburn
The 6 line: Buffalo, Nevada, Maryland, Villanova
The 7 line: Wofford, Louisville, Iowa St, Cincinnati
The 8 line: VCU, UCF, Baylor, Seton Hall
The 9 line: Ole Miss, Syracuse, Arizona St, Oklahoma
The 10 line: Iowa, Washington, Minnesota, St John's
The 11 line: St Mary's, Utah St, Florida, Temple
The 12 line: Ohio St, TCU, Belmont, Furman, Murray St, Liberty
The 13 line: New Mexico St, Old Dominion, Northeastern, UC Irvine
The 14 line: Vermont, Georgia St, Harvard, Northern Kentucky
The 15 line: Bradley, Colgate, Montana, Gardner-Webb
The 16 line: Sam Houston St, North Dakota St, Iona, Fairleigh Dickinson, Prairie View A&M, Norfolk St
Next 4 in:
St John's
Utah St
Florida
Temple
Last 4 in:
Ohio St
TCU
Belmont
Furman
Last 4 out:
Indiana
UNC Greensboro
North Carolina St
Alabama
Next 4 out:
Texas
Lipscomb
Clemson
Xavier
Still on the consideration board:
Oregon
Georgetown
Creighton
13 comments:
If the Duke/North Carolina winner beats Virginia do they jump Kentucky for the South ?
This is my biggest concern as a Kentucky fan is 2 things #1 getting in the South and #2 avoiding Duke until the NC Game.
I think Ohio State is in and not in Dayton. They went 0-3 with KW and now he is back it should how much better they are. I think 11 seed for Ohio State assuming a lose today vs MSU.
The away record and q1 road wins is going to be viewed favorably by the comitee
VCU loses. There's another bid thief, and now we have a 2 bid A-10.
"If the Duke/North Carolina winner beats Virginia do they jump Kentucky for the South?"
I think there's no question, particularly if Duke were to win. I could see either team higher than Kentucky even without beating Virginia, especially if UK doesn't win the SEC championship. Duke's resume would include absolutely smoking UK, playing a tougher schedule, and beating UVA (the only other possibility for best team IMO) 3 times, and most of their losses came without the best player in college basketball. I say that as a UNC fan.
Pop goes the bubble. Hopefully not Belmont or UNCG. Hopefully that was NC State's bubble.
No one cares but Kentucky was without Reid Travis a very important starter for Kentucky just as many games as Duke was without Zion and Kentucky only lost 1 game during that time (at Tennessee).
So basically you are saying none of Duke's losses count without Zion and the WF 1 point win was meaningless.
Then North Carolina gets no credit for the Duke wins and the Kentucky loss at Tennessee doesn't count because Kentucky beat Tennessee by 17 with Travis............
It be a double standard it be crap if that is how it goes down.
I'm aware of the loss of Reid Travis. He's important, but a lot less important than Zion. And I'd favor completely disregarding injuries, as I don't see why you shouldn't be whatever your actual results say you are. The committee doesn't seem to agree with me though, but no one is saying "none of the losses count".
They have the same number of losses as UK though, with a harder schedule and a more important player injured. They beat the best team in the country (according to Kenpom) twice and three of their five losses are to top five teams. They also dismantled Kentucky on a neutral court.
I say this as not just an unbiased observer, but someone who actively dislikes Duke and would love to see them fail: I think they have a better resume than UK. If they also beat UNC and UVA I think it's not particularly close.
Side note: LSU just lost too. That's one less team to compete for the one line, and now neither UK nor Tenn can have a particularly meaningful SEC championship game.
I think there's a pretty good chance the Duke/UNC winner passes Kentucy for the South region. Especially if they beat UVa...but even if they don't.
I actually think LSU just ruined Kentucky's case to avoid that. UK loses access to a second signature win they could've used to stay ahead of Duke/UNC.
The SEC final never matters since it is on Sunday. At least it has never helped Kentucky before the last 3 years they won the SEC Championship and been seeded lower than the team they beat twice out of the 3.
So basically you are saying losses without Zion mean nothing and the North Carolina wins without Zion mean everything. Can't be both ways.
If Virginia wins the ACC tournament and Kentucky wins SEC tournament Kentucky should get the South. Also Kentucky beat North Carolina so for sure if NC wins then loses to Virginia that should be Kentucky going South they beat North Carolina and have 1 less loss and more quad 1 wins.
If UNC beats Duke their other two wins against Duke are irrelevant in my mind. I think UNC has enough elsewhere in the profile.
Full strength Duke is my #1...I think the committee will use eye test on the 1 line pretty heavily.
"So basically you are saying losses without Zion mean nothing and the North Carolina wins without Zion mean everything. Can't be both ways."
No, I neither said nor implied either thing and actually actively disputed them. Debating isn't very fun when someone's not open-minded. Perhaps the fact that Andrew agreed with me should tell you where the bias lies here.
And to be clear, I'd count the losses without Zion as just normal losses (no discounting) and still give Duke the nod over UK right now. They have the same number of losses with a tougher schedule; this really isn't that difficult. If they beat UNC and lose a close game to UVA there is probably nothing UK could do to make me think their resume was stronger.
Stupid Virginia
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