Tuesday, March 18, 2014

NIT/CBI/CIT projection analysis

Since I'm one of the few people stupid enough to offer projections for the other 3 tournaments, it's fair to look and see how I did.


Here's what I had:
Last 4 in:  Richmond, Indiana, Marquette, Maryland
Last 4 out:  LSU, St Mary's, Washington, Middle Tennessee
Off the board:  Indiana St, San Francisco, UTEP, Boise St, Ole Miss, Ohio, Cleveland St, UNLV

So I missed 4 teams in total - the entirety of my last 4 in.  I missed LSU, St Mary's, Indiana St, and San Francisco on the other end.

I can't complain too much about LSU - the one power conference team sitting at .500 in their conference, so I can see the logic.  I actually like, once again, the NIT leaning towards mid-majors and taking top teams from the MVC and WCC.  I didn't think they'd do it this year, especially with an Indiana team with some signature wins.  Richmond I think should've probably made it.

San Francisco and Indiana St were 2nd in their conferences, but their overall resume paled in comparison to the rest on the bubble.  I'm ok with them in the NIT, but not thrilled.

As far as seeding:
- I had Toledo as a 4, them a 6 and just in.  Toledo was never getting left out with their RPI but I found it interesting they way underseeded them.
- Georgetown and Green Bay - I had both as 2 seeds, the NCAA had them last 4 out...and 4 seeds, both, from the NIT.  Huh?
- On the flip side, I had Georgia as a 4 and the NIT had them as a 2.  Guess conference record really matters here.

Among the 28 teams I projected in, I got 10 seeds right and another 10 within 1 line.  That actually sucks, and proves the NIT selection committee is senile and/or unpredictable.

My last projections from March 10 had these CBI teams:
Buffalo, LaSalle, Wake Forest, Vanderbilt
Houston, Texas A&M, Northern Iowa, Cleveland St
Oregon St, UNLV, New Mexico St, Tulsa
Miami, Ole Miss, Manhattan, Towson

Only 2 of those teams wound up in the CBI.  Oregon St and Texas A&M.  LOL.

Now, to be fair, since those projections, 3 of the teams (NMSU, Tulsa, Manhattan) played their way into a slightly more important tournament.  Further, Cleveland St and Towson went to the CIT instead.

That leaves 9 teams (Buffalo, LaSalle, Wake, Vandy, Houston, UNI, UNLV, Miami, Ole Miss).  We already know a few teams publicly turned down bids, and I'm willing to bet all 9 actually turned down bids.

My last projections from March 10...I won't reprint them all for the sake of brevity.  3 of the 32 teams I had (Louisiana-Lafayette, American, Milwaukee) would up in the better tournament.  6 of the 32 teams (Wyoming, Illinois St, South Dakota St, Fresno St, UTEP, Hampton) I projected to the CIT would up in the CBI.  Amusing sidebar:  I projected Fresno at UTEP in the CIT and it happened...in the CBI instead.  So these 9 teams really don't count as misses.

Of the 23 remaining teams, I got 13 right in my projections.  I consider it highly likely many of those 10 turned down bids.

So the general lesson is that of the 45 teams I projected to be worthy of the CBI/CIT, almost all the power conference teams turned it down, and about half of the mid-majors either turned down bids or I mis-projected them.

My takeaway:  CBI projections are pointless, or if you do them, just take out most of the power conference teams.  CIT projections are actually do-able, with perhaps a bit more research on which schools typically turn down bids.

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