Sunday, March 9, 2014

3/10 CBI/CIT projections

I'm breaking off the NIT projections from the CBI/CIT so I can go a bit more in depth.

First, here's the NIT bubble to me (you can look at my NIT post coming up if you don't see your team here):
Indiana (17-14)
Marquette (17-14)
St Mary's (21-10)
Washington (17-14)
Richmond (18-13)
Indiana St (21-10)
Boise St (17-12)
San Francisco (19-10)
Middle Tennessee (21-8)
last out of the NIT: Manhattan, New Mexico St, Ole Miss, UNLV

So I think about 4 or 5 of those NIT bubble teams will actually fall to the CBI/CIT before we're done, because of NIT automatic bids for regular season conference champions.  Keep that in mind.

CBI projected field.  Notice that I've included as many power conference teams as reasonably possible.  There's a fair chance several decline bids.  But because of the NIT bubble situation I described above, just replace those teams with those teams.  It works itself out.

Buffalo (18-9) at LaSalle (15-15)
Wake Forest (16-15) at Vanderbilt (15-15)

Houston (16-15) at Texas A&M (17-14)
Northern Iowa (15-15) at Cleveland St (19-11)

Oregon St (16-14) at UNLV (19-12)
New Mexico St (22-9) at Tulsa (18-12)

Miami (16-15) at Ole Miss (18-13)
Manhattan (24-7) at Towson (21-10)

CIT projected field.  Again, the usual caveats.  Some of these teams will decline bids, but I don't know who yet, so I won't try and guess.  I tried to geographically sync things up, but it admittedly got a bit tricky.  In reality, the CIT is going to try to reduce travel if possible.

Holy Cross (19-13) at Quinnipiac (20-11)
Yale (14-13) at Drexel (16-14)
American (19-12) at Canisius (21-11)
Wagner (18-12) at St Bonaventure (15-14)

Western Kentucky (19-11) at Missouri St (19-12)
Chattanooga (15-14) at Akron (20-11)
Milwaukee (19-13) at IPFW (20-9)
Eastern Michigan (15-13)  Illinois St (15-15)

Louisiana-Lafayette (17-11) at Sam Houston St (18-8)
Texas A&M-CC (15-12) at UAB (16-12)
Hampton (18-11) at William & Mary (19-11)
Murray St (16-11) at Ohio (20-10)

Denver (15-14) at Wyoming (16-13)
San Diego (14-16) at UC Santa Barbara (19-8)
Montana (15-12) at South Dakota St (16-11)
Fresno St (14-15) at UTEP (20-9)

Current postseason bubble (most of these teams would probably get a bid if they wanted to accept one, as many teams above will decline bids):
Utah St (16-13), Colorado St (14-15), Tulane (15-15), Charlotte (16-13), Valparaiso (15-15), Columbia (18-12), Hawaii (18-10), Elon (16-13)

And a few more teams, who probably are on the actual postseason bubble:
Kent St (15-15), Arkansas St (16-12), Princeton (18-8), Bucknell (16-14), USC Upstate (17-14), Morehead St (18-13), Bryant (17-14), Northern Colorado (16-12), VMI (15-12), Winthrop (17-13)

If your team isn't listed, you're probably 50/50 to get an invite at this point.  Teams like ETSU, Radford, Gardner-Webb, Western Carolina, North Dakota, ETSU, Northwestern St, and so forth.

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