Wednesday, March 5, 2014

Colonial Athletic Association conference tournament

This is part 10 of a 32-part series covering each conference and conference tournament.  These previews are meant to provide every bracketologist with the information they need to make informed projections about the teams of the conference.

The final standings:
Delaware 14-2
Towson 13-3
William & Mary 10-6
Drexel 8-8
Northeastern 7-9
Charleston 6-10
James Madison 6-10
Hofstra 5-11
UNC Wilmington 3-13

Tournament format:
This one is played straight up over 4 days at a neutral site in Baltimore.  March 7 through 10.

The matchups:
8) Hofstra (9-22) vs. 9) UNC Wilmington (9-22)

1) Delaware (22-9) vs. 8/9 winner
4) Drexel (16-13) vs. 5) Northeastern (10-20)
2) Towson (22-9) vs. 7) James Madison (11-19)
3) William & Mary (18-11) vs. 6) Charleston (14-17)

The stakes:
Delaware has an RPI of 74.  You would think that 13 would be their default seed.  I'm not buying it.  Most of the value of that RPI was getting beat up on the road against legitimate competition.  Richmond, Nova, Ohio St, NDSU, Notre Dame, St Bonaventure....holy crap.  Winning one, just one, would've been huge.  Now, maybe they get some credit for that.  But I've got them as a 13/14 tossup if they make it.

Towson has an RPI just a shade under 100 with no real heft to the resume.  That's a 14/15 seed profile.  So while this year was better for the CAA...it wasn't much better.  They've played their way off the 16 line, at least.

There's really no postseason bubble to speak of.  Nobody's making the NIT out of here unless Delaware loses.  Meanwhile, Towson, W&M, and Drexel are locks for postseason invites if they want them, while the bottom 5 are going to be done for the year.  Simple projections, really.

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