Atlantic 10 conference tournament

This is part 21 of a 32-part series covering each conference and conference tournament.  These previews are meant to provide every bracketologist with the information they need to make informed projections about the teams of the conference.

The standings:
St Louis 13-3
VCU 12-4
George Washington 11-5
St Joseph's 11-5
Dayton 10-6
Massachusetts 10-6
Richmond 8-8
LaSalle 7-9
St Bonaventure 6-10
Duquesne 5-11
Rhode Island 5-11
George Mason 4-12
Fordham 2-14

Tournament format:
All 13 teams will assemble in Brooklyn.  It's actually a five day event, from March 12 through the 16th.  There's a 12/13 game on the 12th.

The matchups:
12) George Mason (11-19) vs. 13) Fordham (9-20)

5) Dayton (22-9) vs. 12/13 winner
8) LaSalle (15-15) vs. 9) St Bonaventure (16-14)
7) Richmond (18-13) vs. 10) Duquesne (13-16)
6) UMass (23-7) vs. 11) Rhode Island (14-17)

1) St Louis (26-5) vs. 8/9 winner
4) St Joseph's (21-9) vs. 5/12/13 winner
2) VCU (24-7) vs. 7/10 winner
3) George Washington (23-7) vs. 6/11 winner

The stakes:
We've got 4 teams in the lockbox here, all hovering between the 4 line and the 9 line.  Frankly, the seeds will vary based on this tournament.  Should I detail St Louis, VCU, UMass, and GWU?  Nah.  We've got more important things to tend to.  UMass/GWU would be a big game for UMass' seed potential though.  St Louis has the other 3 locks on the other side of their bracket, so they better make the finals or face a seed penalty.

St Joe's.  They were close to the lockbox but dropped a marginal game at home to LaSalle.  Dayton has surged.  That's a possible 4/5 game.  Winner of that game would definitely get an at-large berth, and the loser might as well.  Those are pretty simple stakes.

I don't think Richmond can get to the bubble even with a run to the conference finals.  They'll settle for the NIT.  LaSalle/St Bonaventure, amusingly enough, might end up being a CBI play-in game or something.