Atlantic Coast conference tournament

This is part 27 of a 32-part series covering each conference and conference tournament.  These previews are meant to provide every bracketologist with the information they need to make informed projections about the teams of the conference.


The standings:
Virginia 16-2
Syracuse 14-4
Duke 13-5
North Carolina 13-5
Pittsburgh 11-7
Clemson 10-8
North Carolina St 9-9
Maryland 9-9
Florida St 9-9
Miami 7-11
Georgia Tech 6-12
Wake Forest 6-12
Notre Dame 6-12
Boston College 4-14
Virginia Tech 2-16

Tournament format:
15 teams, so this is using the format the old Big East popularized.  Top 4 seeds get a double bye to the quarterfinals, and the bottom 6 have to win 5 times to win the tourney.  Dates are March 12-16.


The matchups:
12) Wake Forest (16-15) vs. 13) Notre Dame (15-16)
10) Miami (16-15) vs. 15) Virginia Tech (9-12)
11) Georgia Tech (15-16) vs. 14) Boston College (8-23)

8) Maryland (17-14) vs. 9) Florida St (18-12)
5) Pittsburgh (23-8) vs. 12/13 winner
7) North Carolina St (19-12) vs. 10/15 winner
6) Clemson (19-11) vs. 11/14 winner

1) Virginia (25-6) vs. 8/9 winner
4) North Carolina (23-8) vs. 5/12/13 winner
2) Syracuse (27-4) vs. 7/10/15 winner
3) Duke (24-7) vs. 6/11/14 winner

The stakes:
I have the top 4 in protected seed range.  I think it's likely all 4 stay there.  The battle will be to see who gets to the 2 line.  I think if Syracuse, Virginia, or Duke make it to the final, they'll probably get to the 2 line; UNC would need to win the whole thing, and even then, I don't think they can make it up.

Pittsburgh.  Dear God, please don't lose against the 12/13 seed.  If you manage that, you're probably safe because signature win opportunities would be all that would remain.

Florida St starts with Maryland.  Obviously, must win.  Beating Virginia probably turns them into a 50/50 chance.  They at least have the non-con bullets (N-UMass and VCU) to fire with if they get the Virginia win.  Now, if they combine UVa with UNC...

Strangely, that's the extent of the bubble drama.  Clemson is far enough from the bubble that they would need to beat Duke, and then probably Syracuse too to be 50/50 for the tournament.  NC State would have to get the same 2 wins, and I don't think that would be enough.  Maryland would have to get the Virginia/UNC double, and it wouldn't be enough.  NC State is probably a NIT team along with Clemson; Maryland might not even be that.

CBI/CIT drama?  They probably won't play, but Miami/Wake/GT/UND are all in play there.