Monday, March 17, 2014

NCAA's official S-Curve

1-4) Florida, Arizona, Wichita St, Virginia
5-8) Villanova, Michigan, Kansas, Wisconsin
9-12) Duke, Syracuse, Creighton, Iowa St
13-16) Louisville, Michigan St, UCLA, San Diego St
17-20) Cincinnati, St Louis, VCU, Oklahoma
21-24) North Carolina, Ohio St, UMass, Baylor
25-28) Texas, UConn, Oregon, New Mexico
29-32) Kentucky, Gonzaga, Memphis, Colorado
33-36) Kansas St, George Washington, Oklahoma St, Pittsburgh
37-40) Stanford, St Joseph's, BYU, Arizona St
41-45) Dayton, Nebraska, Providence, Tennessee, Iowa
46-50) Xavier, North Carolina St, North Dakota St, Harvard, Stephen F Austin
51-54) Manhattan, Tulsa, New Mexico St, Delaware
55-58) Western Michigan, Mercer, Louisiana-Lafayette, North Carolina Central
59-62) Eastern Kentucky, Milwaukee, Wofford, American

63-68) Coastal Carolina, Weber St, Mount St Mary's, Albany, Texas Southern, Cal Poly

So let's compare my 1-68 to the committee's.

Here's how we do this.  I'll add up how far off I was on each individual rank, and average them out.  I believe this is a better way to evaluate bracketologist performance, since we're all trying to replicate the S-Curve, not the seed lines.

I was off a total of 151 spots over 67 teams, for an average of 2.253 spots per team.  This is the equivalent of missing every single team by half a seed line.

The Bracket Matrix, assembled as a whole, was off 125 spots over 67 teams, for an average of 1.866.  On first inspection, anything under 2.00 is exceptional, IMO.

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