Conference USA conference tournament

This is part 15 of a 32-part series covering each conference and conference tournament.  These previews are meant to provide every bracketologist with the information they need to make informed projections about the teams of the conference.

The standings:
Louisiana Tech 13-3
Tulsa 13-3
Middle Tennessee 13-3
Southern Miss 13-3
UTEP 12-4
Old Dominion 9-7
Tulane 8-8
UAB 7-9
Charlotte 7-9
Florida International 7-9
North Texas 6-10
Florida Atlantic 5-11
East Carolina 5-11
Texas-San Antonio 4-12
Marshall 4-12
Rice 2-14

Tournament format:
First off, FIU (15-16) is ineligible (APR'd), so only 15 teams will head to El Paso, as UTEP hosts from March 11 to 15.  With 15 teams there, this format is the same as the type of the old Big East used.  Top 4 teams get a double bye, 5th through 7th get a single bye.

The matchups:
10) North Texas (15-15) vs. 15) Rice (7-22)
11) Florida Atlantic (10-21) vs. 14) Marshall (10-21)
12) East Carolina (16-15) vs. 13) UTSA (8-21)

7) Tulane (16-15) vs. 10/15 winner
6) Old Dominion (15-16) vs. 11/14 winner
5) UTEP (22-9) vs. 12/13 winner
8) UAB (18-12) vs. 9) Charlotte

2) Tulsa (18-12) vs. 7/10/15 winner
3) Middle Tennessee (23-8) vs. 6/11/14 winner
4) Southern Miss (26-5) vs. 5/12/13 winner
1) Louisiana Tech (25-6) vs. 8/9 winner

The stakes:
Wacky season.  4-way tie at the top with UTEP finishing one back.  Ok, let's step through them one at a time.

Southern Miss is considered the biggest bubble threat, with an RPI at 36.  Won at NDSU...and...at home versus La Tech.  There's not exactly any signature wins here.  The key point is all the road and neutral wins, which help the computer numbers.  Long story short, I'm not buying their chances.

Louisiana Tech is on the periphery of the bubble.  However, they have worse computer numbers, a couple of dubious losses and so forth.  Did win at Oklahoma, which is a significant chip.  They needed a bit more depth behind that win, though.  Not enough quantity.  LaTech would be in the NIT anyways, but they have the conference's autobid through tiebreakers (a bid that would've been better used on MTSU or Tulsa).

Tulsa's weird in that they had a horrible non-con with 9 losses.  However, they included Wichita, Creighton, Green Bay, Oklahoma, and Maryland, several of those on the road or neutral.  They did beat Indiana St.    Still, they got beat up in the non-con, but then got in the way of the conference.  NIT?  They're on the bubble, leaning out for me, but we'll see if 13-3 in CUSA buys sympathy points from the committee.  Could 3 CUSA teams make the NIT?

MTSU has a better chance than Tulsa to make it.  MTSU doesn't have the non-con results at all, but beating USM and Tulsa in conference may be the difference, along with a shiny RPI in the 60s.

And don't forget about UTEP, but with a sub-100 RPI, they're probably headed to a CBI/CIT, with all the teams ahead of them in conference too.

Old Dominion rebounded nicely this season for 6th in the conference but will have to upset MTSU to be postseason eligible at this point, unless the CBI calls and is desperate.  UAB and Charlotte are CIT/CBI bubble teams, so who knows if that game is a postseason elimination game.  By the way, Charlotte beat Kansas St and Michigan, and UAB beat UNC, and both teams wasted it.  Shame.  I do suppose Tulane, UNT, or ECU could get postseason looks, although they shouldn't.