The 1 line: UNC Greensboro, Alabama, TCU, Indiana
The 2 line: Furman, Texas, North Carolina St, Creighton
The 3 line: Lipscomb, Clemson, Georgetown, Memphis
The 4 line: Colorado, Nebraska, Davidson, Xavier
The 5 line: Providence, Arkansas, Dayton, BYU
The 6 line: Utah, Oregon St, Toledo, Hofstra
The 7 line: Harvard, Loyola(Chi), South Dakota St, Wright St
The 8 line: Campbell, Sam Houston St, St Francis(PA), Norfolk St
Last 4 in: BYU, Utah, Oregon St, Toledo,
Last 4 out: East Tennessee St, Wichita St, San Francisco, Fresno St
1) UNC Greensboro vs. 8) Campbell
4) Nebraska vs. 5) Arkansas
3) Georgetown vs. 6) Hofstra
2) North Carolina St vs. 7) Wright St
1) Alabama vs. 8) Norfolk St
4) Davidson vs. 5) Providence
3) Clemson vs. 6) Toledo
2) Furman vs. 7) Harvard
1) Indiana vs. 8) St Francis(PA)
4) Xavier vs. 5) Dayton
3) Lipscomb vs. 6) Utah
2) Texas vs. 7) South Dakota St
1) TCU vs. 8) Sam Houston St
4) Colorado vs. 5) BYU
3) Memphis vs. 6) Oregon St
2) Creighton vs. 7) Loyola(Chi)
Sunday, March 17, 2019
FINAL SEED LIST
The 1 line: Virginia, Duke, North Carolina, Gonzaga
The 2 line: Tennessee, Kentucky, Michigan St, Michigan
The 3 line: Houston, Florida St, LSU, Texas Tech
The 4 line: Kansas, Purdue, Wisconsin, Kansas St
The 5 line: Iowa St, Auburn, Villanova, Virginia Tech
The 6 line: Mississippi St, Marquette, Buffalo, Maryland
The 7 line: Wofford, Louisville, Nevada, Cincinnati
The 8 line: Seton Hall, Syracuse, Ole Miss, Minnesota
The 9 line: Oklahoma, Baylor, Florida, Utah St
The 10 line: UCF, Iowa, Arizona St, Washington
The 11 line: VCU, St John's, TCU, Ohio St, Indiana, St Mary's
The 12 line: Oregon, Murray St, Liberty, New Mexico St
The 13 line: St Louis, Northeastern, Old Dominion, Georgia St
The 14 line: UC Irvine, Vermont, Bradley, Yale
The 15 line: Colgate, Northern Kentucky, Montana, Gardner-Webb
The 16 line: Abilene Christian, Iona, North Dakota St, Fairleigh Dickinson, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina Central
My official final bubble is 5 teams playing 3 spots.
Last 3 in:
TCU
Ohio St
Indiana
Last 2 out:
Temple
Belmont
The 2 line: Tennessee, Kentucky, Michigan St, Michigan
The 3 line: Houston, Florida St, LSU, Texas Tech
The 4 line: Kansas, Purdue, Wisconsin, Kansas St
The 5 line: Iowa St, Auburn, Villanova, Virginia Tech
The 6 line: Mississippi St, Marquette, Buffalo, Maryland
The 7 line: Wofford, Louisville, Nevada, Cincinnati
The 8 line: Seton Hall, Syracuse, Ole Miss, Minnesota
The 9 line: Oklahoma, Baylor, Florida, Utah St
The 10 line: UCF, Iowa, Arizona St, Washington
The 11 line: VCU, St John's, TCU, Ohio St, Indiana, St Mary's
The 12 line: Oregon, Murray St, Liberty, New Mexico St
The 13 line: St Louis, Northeastern, Old Dominion, Georgia St
The 14 line: UC Irvine, Vermont, Bradley, Yale
The 15 line: Colgate, Northern Kentucky, Montana, Gardner-Webb
The 16 line: Abilene Christian, Iona, North Dakota St, Fairleigh Dickinson, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina Central
My official final bubble is 5 teams playing 3 spots.
Last 3 in:
TCU
Ohio St
Indiana
Last 2 out:
Temple
Belmont
FINAL BRACKET
Balance became an issue. Had to send Tennessee west.
EAST 35
@Columbus
1) Virginia vs. 16) North Dakota St/Prairie View A&M
8) Seton Hall vs. 9) Florida
@Hartford
4) Purdue vs. 13) Old Dominion
5) Auburn vs. 12) Murray St
@Tulsa
3) Texas Tech vs. 14) Bradley
6) Mississippi St vs. 11) St Mary's
@Hartford
2) Michigan vs. 15) Colgate
7) Cincinnati vs. 10) UCF
WEST 35
@Salt Lake City
1) Gonzaga vs. 16) Fairleigh Dickinson/North Carolina Central
8) Syracuse vs. 9) Oklahoma
@Salt Lake City
4) Kansas St vs. 13) St Louis
5) Villanova vs. 12) Oregon
@Jacksonville
3) Florida St vs. 14) Yale
6) Maryland vs. 11) VCU
@Columbus
2) Tennessee vs. 15) Northern Kentucky
7) Wofford vs. 10) Iowa
MIDWEST 34
@Columbia
1) North Carolina vs. 16) Abilene Christian
8) Minnesota vs. 9) Baylor
@San Jose
4) Kansas vs. 13) Georgia St
5) Virginia Tech vs. 12) New Mexico St
@Jacksonville
3) LSU vs. 14) Vermont
6) Buffalo vs. 11) St John's/Ohio St
@Des Moines
2) Michigan St vs. 15) Montana
7) Louisville vs. 10) Arizona St
SOUTH 32
@Columbia
1) Duke vs. 16) Iona
8) Ole Miss vs. 9) Utah St
@San Jose
4) Wisconsin vs. 13) Northeastern
5) Iowa St vs. 12) Liberty
@Tulsa
3) Houston vs. 14) UC Irvine
6) Marquette vs. 11) TCU/Indiana
@Des Moines
2) Kentucky vs. 15) Gardner-Webb
7) Cincinnati vs. 10) Washington
EAST 35
@Columbus
1) Virginia vs. 16) North Dakota St/Prairie View A&M
8) Seton Hall vs. 9) Florida
@Hartford
4) Purdue vs. 13) Old Dominion
5) Auburn vs. 12) Murray St
@Tulsa
3) Texas Tech vs. 14) Bradley
6) Mississippi St vs. 11) St Mary's
@Hartford
2) Michigan vs. 15) Colgate
7) Cincinnati vs. 10) UCF
WEST 35
@Salt Lake City
1) Gonzaga vs. 16) Fairleigh Dickinson/North Carolina Central
8) Syracuse vs. 9) Oklahoma
@Salt Lake City
4) Kansas St vs. 13) St Louis
5) Villanova vs. 12) Oregon
@Jacksonville
3) Florida St vs. 14) Yale
6) Maryland vs. 11) VCU
@Columbus
2) Tennessee vs. 15) Northern Kentucky
7) Wofford vs. 10) Iowa
MIDWEST 34
@Columbia
1) North Carolina vs. 16) Abilene Christian
8) Minnesota vs. 9) Baylor
@San Jose
4) Kansas vs. 13) Georgia St
5) Virginia Tech vs. 12) New Mexico St
@Jacksonville
3) LSU vs. 14) Vermont
6) Buffalo vs. 11) St John's/Ohio St
@Des Moines
2) Michigan St vs. 15) Montana
7) Louisville vs. 10) Arizona St
SOUTH 32
@Columbia
1) Duke vs. 16) Iona
8) Ole Miss vs. 9) Utah St
@San Jose
4) Wisconsin vs. 13) Northeastern
5) Iowa St vs. 12) Liberty
@Tulsa
3) Houston vs. 14) UC Irvine
6) Marquette vs. 11) TCU/Indiana
@Des Moines
2) Kentucky vs. 15) Gardner-Webb
7) Cincinnati vs. 10) Washington
3/17 recap
B1G finals:
Michigan St 65, Michigan 60
SEC finals:
Auburn 84, Tennessee 64 - Auburn gains a seed line late. Let's see if the committee cares. Gonzaga to the 1 line
AAC finals:
Cincinnati 69, Houston 57 - well, that settled the 2 line debate for Houston
Ivy finals:
Yale 97, Harvard 85
A-10 finals:
St Louis 55, St Bonaventure 53
Fun Belt finals:
Georgia St 73, UT Arlington 64
Michigan St 65, Michigan 60
SEC finals:
Auburn 84, Tennessee 64 - Auburn gains a seed line late. Let's see if the committee cares. Gonzaga to the 1 line
AAC finals:
Cincinnati 69, Houston 57 - well, that settled the 2 line debate for Houston
Ivy finals:
Yale 97, Harvard 85
A-10 finals:
St Louis 55, St Bonaventure 53
Fun Belt finals:
Georgia St 73, UT Arlington 64
3/17 AM BRACKET
EAST 36
@Columbus
1) Virginia vs. 16) North Dakota St/North Carolina Central
8) Seton Hall vs. 9) Oklahoma
@San Jose
4) Kansas St vs. 13) St Bonaventure
5) Virginia Tech vs. 12) New Mexico St
@Jacksonville
3) LSU vs. 14) Vermont
6) Buffalo vs. 11) St John's/Indiana
@Hartford
2) Michigan vs. 15) Colgate
7) Wofford vs. 10) Washington
WEST 34
@Columbia
1) North Carolina vs. 16) Abilene Christian
8) Ole Miss vs. 9) Utah St
@Hartford
4) Purdue vs. 13) Old Dominion
5) Mississippi St vs. 12) Murray St
@Tulsa
3) Texas Tech vs. 14) UC Irvine
6) Auburn vs. 11) St Mary's
@Salt Lake City
2) Gonzaga vs. 15) Montana
7) Nevada vs. 10) Iowa
MIDWEST 32
@Columbus
1) Tennessee vs. 16) Iona
8) Syracuse vs. 9) Minnesota
@Salt Lake City
4) Kansas vs. 13) Northeastern
5) Villanova vs. 12) Liberty
@Jacksonville
3) Florida St vs. 14) Harvard
6) Maryland vs. 11) VCU
@Des Moines
2) Michigan St vs. 15) Gardner-Webb
7) Louisville vs. 10) UCF
SOUTH 32
@Columbia
1) Duke vs. 16) Fairleigh Dickinson/Prairie View A&M
8) Baylor vs. 9) Florida
@San Jose
4) Wisconsin vs. 13) Georgia St
5) Iowa St vs. 12) Oregon
@Tulsa
3) Houston vs. 14) Bradley
6) Marquette vs. 11) TCU/Ohio St
@Des Moines
2) Kentucky vs. 15) Northern Kentucky
7) Cincinnati vs. 10) Arizona St
@Columbus
1) Virginia vs. 16) North Dakota St/North Carolina Central
8) Seton Hall vs. 9) Oklahoma
@San Jose
4) Kansas St vs. 13) St Bonaventure
5) Virginia Tech vs. 12) New Mexico St
@Jacksonville
3) LSU vs. 14) Vermont
6) Buffalo vs. 11) St John's/Indiana
@Hartford
2) Michigan vs. 15) Colgate
7) Wofford vs. 10) Washington
WEST 34
@Columbia
1) North Carolina vs. 16) Abilene Christian
8) Ole Miss vs. 9) Utah St
@Hartford
4) Purdue vs. 13) Old Dominion
5) Mississippi St vs. 12) Murray St
@Tulsa
3) Texas Tech vs. 14) UC Irvine
6) Auburn vs. 11) St Mary's
@Salt Lake City
2) Gonzaga vs. 15) Montana
7) Nevada vs. 10) Iowa
MIDWEST 32
@Columbus
1) Tennessee vs. 16) Iona
8) Syracuse vs. 9) Minnesota
@Salt Lake City
4) Kansas vs. 13) Northeastern
5) Villanova vs. 12) Liberty
@Jacksonville
3) Florida St vs. 14) Harvard
6) Maryland vs. 11) VCU
@Des Moines
2) Michigan St vs. 15) Gardner-Webb
7) Louisville vs. 10) UCF
SOUTH 32
@Columbia
1) Duke vs. 16) Fairleigh Dickinson/Prairie View A&M
8) Baylor vs. 9) Florida
@San Jose
4) Wisconsin vs. 13) Georgia St
5) Iowa St vs. 12) Oregon
@Tulsa
3) Houston vs. 14) Bradley
6) Marquette vs. 11) TCU/Ohio St
@Des Moines
2) Kentucky vs. 15) Northern Kentucky
7) Cincinnati vs. 10) Arizona St
Saturday, March 16, 2019
3/17 AM SEED LIST
Moving Duke to #2 overall. I wouldn't argue with anyone who moves them to #1 overall, and their #2 SoS is sterling. Just feel like Virginia kept a cleaner sheet throughout the year.
Gonzaga/UNC/Tennessee/Kentucky can go in almost any order. Gonzaga's SoS hung tough all year - 52 overall. I think I move Tennessee to 3rd as they kept the cleanest sheet all year (no losses outside Q1a).
This is an unusual case where we have a lot of feedback within the top 6 teams. Duke swept Virginia; Gonzaga beat Duke but lost to Tennessee/UNC; Tennessee took 2 of 3 off of UK; UNC took 2 of 3 off of Duke , Kentucky beat UNC. That's an incredible amount of feedback, and it also instructs us to one inevitable problem: someone's gonna get seeded right behind a team they beat, and there's no way to avoid that. With that in mind, I think the committee gives the West to UNC, knowing Gonzaga can be the 2 in the west. But boy, I don't feel very confident about this call.
People think Michigan St can be on the 1 line...don't see it. They're closed out of the feedback loop I mentioned above, and a couple sloppy losses doom them. I've been debating Houston vs. Michigan and have changed my mind a few times already. I reserve the right to change my mind again.
I almost put Kansas on the 3 line, but I think the committee eye tests them down to the 4 line. No arguments if they move up, though.
I almost moved Villanova higher. 13 Q2 wins! But the Big East was such a Q2 factory. They had 8 wins alone in Q2b, and I almost have to admit their 13 Q2 win total is a bit of a byproduct of the arbitrary cutoffs. I think the 5 line is fair for them. As for Va Tech, I almost pulled the trigger to move them down to a 6. I think there's a legit argument there. That's another case where I think the eye test will be used.
I did some seed scrubbing in the lower lines, but those are much less interesting to write about. To the bubble we go.
I dunno, I'm staring at Indiana's wins, and every other bubble team's wins, and I'm having a tougher time thinking they'll be left out. Same kinda vibe I have with Texas. I'm looking at the TCU/Ohio St/Belmont/Temple gaggle and seeing the same generic problem of lack of impact wins. I'm going with the compromise solution for now (Indiana in, Texas out), but man, I'm waffling.
We've seen 15-loss teams sneak in (but they're usually something like 19-15). Does 17-15 make it? 16-16 probably can't.
I'm also moving up Creighton a bit to hedge my bet. Don't see them making it but I see a lot of similar characteristics to bubble teams in their profile.
It's brutal that I keep slipping these SoCon teams further down but there's so much traffic still on the bubble this late. Brutal for Furman, who I had in like 2 days ago. A-10 and Pac-12 poachings cost 2 spots, then the executive call on Indiana.
The PIG has moved up to the 11 line, which is a big BIG BIG deal. The way it had been lined up, one of them would've had to be sent to San Jose. Not so now.
The 1 line: Virginia, Duke, Tennessee, North Carolina
The 2 line: Gonzaga, Kentucky, Michigan St, Michigan
The 3 line: Houston, Florida St, LSU, Texas Tech
The 4 line: Kansas, Purdue, Wisconsin, Kansas St
The 5 line: Mississippi St, Iowa St, Villanova, Virginia Tech
The 6 line: Marquette, Buffalo, Auburn, Maryland
The 7 line: Wofford, Louisville, Nevada, Cincinnati
The 8 line: Seton Hall, Syracuse, Ole Miss, Baylor
The 9 line: Minnesota, Oklahoma, Florida, Utah St
The 10 line: UCF, Iowa, Arizona St, Washington
The 11 line: VCU, St John's, TCU, Ohio St, Indiana, St Mary's
The 12 line: Oregon, Murray St, Liberty, New Mexico St
The 13 line: Northeastern, Old Dominion, Georgia St, St Bonaventure
The 14 line: UC Irvine, Harvard, Vermont, Bradley
The 15 line: Colgate, Northern Kentucky, Montana, Gardner-Webb
The 16 line: Abilene Christian, Iona, North Dakota St, Fairleigh Dickinson, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina Central
Next 4 in:
Iowa
Arizona St
Washington
VCU
Last 4 in:
St John's
TCU
Ohio St
Indiana
Last 4 out:
Temple
Belmont
Furman
Texas
Next 4 out:
North Carolina St
UNC Greensboro
Creighton
Alabama
NIT lines:
The 1 line: Temple, Belmont, Furman, Texas
The 2 line: North Carolina St, UNC Greensboro, Creighton, Alabama
The 3 line: Lipscomb, Clemson, Georgetown, Memphis
The 4 line: Colorado, Nebraska, Davidson, Xavier
The 5 line: Providence, Arkansas, Dayton, BYU
The 6 line: Utah, Oregon St, Toledo, East Tennessee St
The 7 line: Hofstra, Loyola(Chi), South Dakota St, Wright St
The 8 line: Campbell, Sam Houston St, St Francis(PA), Norfolk St
Last 4 in: Utah, Oregon St, Toledo, East Tennessee St
Last 4 out: Wichita St, San Francisco, South Carolina, Fresno St
Next 4 out: Butler, St Louis, South Florida, Utah Valley
Gonzaga/UNC/Tennessee/Kentucky can go in almost any order. Gonzaga's SoS hung tough all year - 52 overall. I think I move Tennessee to 3rd as they kept the cleanest sheet all year (no losses outside Q1a).
This is an unusual case where we have a lot of feedback within the top 6 teams. Duke swept Virginia; Gonzaga beat Duke but lost to Tennessee/UNC; Tennessee took 2 of 3 off of UK; UNC took 2 of 3 off of Duke , Kentucky beat UNC. That's an incredible amount of feedback, and it also instructs us to one inevitable problem: someone's gonna get seeded right behind a team they beat, and there's no way to avoid that. With that in mind, I think the committee gives the West to UNC, knowing Gonzaga can be the 2 in the west. But boy, I don't feel very confident about this call.
People think Michigan St can be on the 1 line...don't see it. They're closed out of the feedback loop I mentioned above, and a couple sloppy losses doom them. I've been debating Houston vs. Michigan and have changed my mind a few times already. I reserve the right to change my mind again.
I almost put Kansas on the 3 line, but I think the committee eye tests them down to the 4 line. No arguments if they move up, though.
I almost moved Villanova higher. 13 Q2 wins! But the Big East was such a Q2 factory. They had 8 wins alone in Q2b, and I almost have to admit their 13 Q2 win total is a bit of a byproduct of the arbitrary cutoffs. I think the 5 line is fair for them. As for Va Tech, I almost pulled the trigger to move them down to a 6. I think there's a legit argument there. That's another case where I think the eye test will be used.
I did some seed scrubbing in the lower lines, but those are much less interesting to write about. To the bubble we go.
I dunno, I'm staring at Indiana's wins, and every other bubble team's wins, and I'm having a tougher time thinking they'll be left out. Same kinda vibe I have with Texas. I'm looking at the TCU/Ohio St/Belmont/Temple gaggle and seeing the same generic problem of lack of impact wins. I'm going with the compromise solution for now (Indiana in, Texas out), but man, I'm waffling.
We've seen 15-loss teams sneak in (but they're usually something like 19-15). Does 17-15 make it? 16-16 probably can't.
I'm also moving up Creighton a bit to hedge my bet. Don't see them making it but I see a lot of similar characteristics to bubble teams in their profile.
It's brutal that I keep slipping these SoCon teams further down but there's so much traffic still on the bubble this late. Brutal for Furman, who I had in like 2 days ago. A-10 and Pac-12 poachings cost 2 spots, then the executive call on Indiana.
The PIG has moved up to the 11 line, which is a big BIG BIG deal. The way it had been lined up, one of them would've had to be sent to San Jose. Not so now.
The 1 line: Virginia, Duke, Tennessee, North Carolina
The 2 line: Gonzaga, Kentucky, Michigan St, Michigan
The 3 line: Houston, Florida St, LSU, Texas Tech
The 4 line: Kansas, Purdue, Wisconsin, Kansas St
The 5 line: Mississippi St, Iowa St, Villanova, Virginia Tech
The 6 line: Marquette, Buffalo, Auburn, Maryland
The 7 line: Wofford, Louisville, Nevada, Cincinnati
The 8 line: Seton Hall, Syracuse, Ole Miss, Baylor
The 9 line: Minnesota, Oklahoma, Florida, Utah St
The 10 line: UCF, Iowa, Arizona St, Washington
The 11 line: VCU, St John's, TCU, Ohio St, Indiana, St Mary's
The 12 line: Oregon, Murray St, Liberty, New Mexico St
The 13 line: Northeastern, Old Dominion, Georgia St, St Bonaventure
The 14 line: UC Irvine, Harvard, Vermont, Bradley
The 15 line: Colgate, Northern Kentucky, Montana, Gardner-Webb
The 16 line: Abilene Christian, Iona, North Dakota St, Fairleigh Dickinson, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina Central
Next 4 in:
Iowa
Arizona St
Washington
VCU
Last 4 in:
St John's
TCU
Ohio St
Indiana
Last 4 out:
Temple
Belmont
Furman
Texas
Next 4 out:
North Carolina St
UNC Greensboro
Creighton
Alabama
NIT lines:
The 1 line: Temple, Belmont, Furman, Texas
The 2 line: North Carolina St, UNC Greensboro, Creighton, Alabama
The 3 line: Lipscomb, Clemson, Georgetown, Memphis
The 4 line: Colorado, Nebraska, Davidson, Xavier
The 5 line: Providence, Arkansas, Dayton, BYU
The 6 line: Utah, Oregon St, Toledo, East Tennessee St
The 7 line: Hofstra, Loyola(Chi), South Dakota St, Wright St
The 8 line: Campbell, Sam Houston St, St Francis(PA), Norfolk St
Last 4 in: Utah, Oregon St, Toledo, East Tennessee St
Last 4 out: Wichita St, San Francisco, South Carolina, Fresno St
Next 4 out: Butler, St Louis, South Florida, Utah Valley
3/16 recap
ACC finals:
Duke 73, Florida St 63
SEC semis:
Tennessee 82, Kentucky 78 - god, what a mess the 1 line is now. Thoughts coming very soon
Auburn 65, Florida 62
B1G semis:
Michigan St 67, Wisconsin 55 - it's all window dressing at this point for all B1G teams, they're locked into seeds IMO
Michigan 76, Minnesota 49
AAC semis:
Houston 61, Memphis 58
Cincinnati 66, Wichita St 63 - 2 very important service holds means the committee is freed up tomorrow to do some extra bracketing. Thank God
Big East finals:
Villanova 74, Seton Hall 72
Big 12 finals:
Iowa St 78, Kansas 66 - KU's seed is going to be fascinating
Pac-12 finals:
Oregon 68, Washington 48
MWC finals:
Utah St 64, San Diego St 57
A-10 semis:
St Bonaventure 68, Rhode Island 51
St Louis 67, Davidson 44 - oh god, what happened to the A-10 tournament. This is a tire fire of a final
MAC finals:
Buffalo 87, Bowling Green 73 - one day, my dream of a multi-bid MAC will come to fruition
AEast finals:
Vermont 66, UMBC 49
CUSA finals:
Old Dominion 62, Western Kentucky 56
Southland finals:
Abilene Christian 77, New Orleans 60
WAC finals:
New Mexico St 89, Grand Canyon 57
MEAC finals:
North Carolina Central 50, Norfolk St 47
SWAC finals:
Prairie View A&M 92, Texas Southern 86
Big Sky finals:
Montana 68, Eastern Washington 62
Big West finals:
UC Irvine 92, Cal St Fullerton 64
Ivy semis:
Harvard 66, Penn 58
Yale 83, Princeton 77
Fun Belt semis:
Georgia St 59, Texas St 46
UT Arlington 67, Georgia Southern 58
Duke 73, Florida St 63
SEC semis:
Tennessee 82, Kentucky 78 - god, what a mess the 1 line is now. Thoughts coming very soon
Auburn 65, Florida 62
B1G semis:
Michigan St 67, Wisconsin 55 - it's all window dressing at this point for all B1G teams, they're locked into seeds IMO
Michigan 76, Minnesota 49
AAC semis:
Houston 61, Memphis 58
Cincinnati 66, Wichita St 63 - 2 very important service holds means the committee is freed up tomorrow to do some extra bracketing. Thank God
Big East finals:
Villanova 74, Seton Hall 72
Big 12 finals:
Iowa St 78, Kansas 66 - KU's seed is going to be fascinating
Pac-12 finals:
Oregon 68, Washington 48
MWC finals:
Utah St 64, San Diego St 57
A-10 semis:
St Bonaventure 68, Rhode Island 51
St Louis 67, Davidson 44 - oh god, what happened to the A-10 tournament. This is a tire fire of a final
MAC finals:
Buffalo 87, Bowling Green 73 - one day, my dream of a multi-bid MAC will come to fruition
AEast finals:
Vermont 66, UMBC 49
CUSA finals:
Old Dominion 62, Western Kentucky 56
Southland finals:
Abilene Christian 77, New Orleans 60
WAC finals:
New Mexico St 89, Grand Canyon 57
MEAC finals:
North Carolina Central 50, Norfolk St 47
SWAC finals:
Prairie View A&M 92, Texas Southern 86
Big Sky finals:
Montana 68, Eastern Washington 62
Big West finals:
UC Irvine 92, Cal St Fullerton 64
Ivy semis:
Harvard 66, Penn 58
Yale 83, Princeton 77
Fun Belt semis:
Georgia St 59, Texas St 46
UT Arlington 67, Georgia Southern 58
Friday, March 15, 2019
3/16 SEED LIST
SO MUCH SCRUBBING
The 1 line: Virginia, Duke, Kentucky, Gonzaga
The 2 line: North Carolina, Tennessee, Michigan St, Houston
The 3 line: Michigan, LSU, Florida St, Texas Tech
The 4 line: Kansas, Purdue, Wisconsin, Kansas St
The 5 line: Virginia Tech, Mississippi St, Auburn, Marquette
The 6 line: Buffalo, Villanova, Maryland, Iowa St
The 7 line: Nevada, Wofford, Louisville, Cincinnati
The 8 line: Seton Hall, Baylor, Ole Miss, Syracuse
The 9 line: Oklahoma, Washington, Minnesota, VCU
The 10 line: UCF, Florida, Arizona St, Iowa
The 11 line: St John's, Utah St, St Mary's, Ohio St, TCU
The 12 line: Belmont, Temple, Davidson, Murray St, Liberty
The 13 line: New Mexico St, Old Dominion, Northeastern, UC Irvine
The 14 line: Vermont, Georgia St, Harvard, Northern Kentucky
The 15 line: Bradley, Colgate, Montana, Gardner-Webb
The 16 line: North Dakota St, Abilene Christian, Iona, Fairleigh Dickinson, Prairie View A&M, Norfolk St
Right now my bubble is 22 teams playing 10 spots. I like to widen the bubble late; we'll spend the next 48 hours paring these teams down, on both ends. If your team is above this; you're in the lockbox and I see no rational argument to keep you out. If your team is below this; you suck and have no rational path to an at-large bid.
Bubble in:
VCU
UCF
Next 4 in:
Florida
Arizona St
Iowa
St John's
Last 4 in:
Ohio St
TCU
Belmont
Temple
Last 4 out:
Furman
Indiana
UNC Greensboro
North Carolina St
Next 4 out:
Texas
Alabama
Oregon
Lipscomb
Bubble inception:
Clemson
Xavier
Georgetown
Creighton
The 1 line: Virginia, Duke, Kentucky, Gonzaga
The 2 line: North Carolina, Tennessee, Michigan St, Houston
The 3 line: Michigan, LSU, Florida St, Texas Tech
The 4 line: Kansas, Purdue, Wisconsin, Kansas St
The 5 line: Virginia Tech, Mississippi St, Auburn, Marquette
The 6 line: Buffalo, Villanova, Maryland, Iowa St
The 7 line: Nevada, Wofford, Louisville, Cincinnati
The 8 line: Seton Hall, Baylor, Ole Miss, Syracuse
The 9 line: Oklahoma, Washington, Minnesota, VCU
The 10 line: UCF, Florida, Arizona St, Iowa
The 11 line: St John's, Utah St, St Mary's, Ohio St, TCU
The 12 line: Belmont, Temple, Davidson, Murray St, Liberty
The 13 line: New Mexico St, Old Dominion, Northeastern, UC Irvine
The 14 line: Vermont, Georgia St, Harvard, Northern Kentucky
The 15 line: Bradley, Colgate, Montana, Gardner-Webb
The 16 line: North Dakota St, Abilene Christian, Iona, Fairleigh Dickinson, Prairie View A&M, Norfolk St
Right now my bubble is 22 teams playing 10 spots. I like to widen the bubble late; we'll spend the next 48 hours paring these teams down, on both ends. If your team is above this; you're in the lockbox and I see no rational argument to keep you out. If your team is below this; you suck and have no rational path to an at-large bid.
Bubble in:
VCU
UCF
Next 4 in:
Florida
Arizona St
Iowa
St John's
Last 4 in:
Ohio St
TCU
Belmont
Temple
Last 4 out:
Furman
Indiana
UNC Greensboro
North Carolina St
Next 4 out:
Texas
Alabama
Oregon
Lipscomb
Bubble inception:
Clemson
Xavier
Georgetown
Creighton
3/15 recap
ACC semis:
Florida St 69, Virginia 59 - you know, if you really wanted to, you could put 4 ACC teams on the top 2 lines. FSU's floor is now the 3 line. Virginia....I think is still #1 overall, but I gotta look at this closer if Duke wins tomorrow
Duke 74, North Carolina 73 - I don't think the committee will put 3 ACC teams on the top line, so I think UNC is kinda screwed. But they have a resume worthy of the 1 line. Maybe UVa/Duke/UNC/Gonzaga on the 1 line, UK/UT winner as the top 2? I doubt they'd pull that trigger.
SEC quarters:
Kentucky 73, Alabama 55 - boy, I don't know about Alabama. Don't think I can do it
Tennessee 83, Mississippi St 76 - UK/UT for the 1 line, IMO
Florida 76, LSU 73 - and there goes LSU from the 1 line....and 2 line conversation. I was always a little aggressive with LSU the past couple weeks, thinking a dual SEC title would carry weight. But without this, and Michigan/FSU/Houston charging, I'm moving them to the 3 line. Florida probably has to be in now, btw
Auburn 73, South Carolina 64 - Auburn losing a chance at a signature win does kinda hurt. Florida won't move the needle
Big East semis:
Seton Hall 81, Marquette 79 - I'm going to mis-seed these teams by at least 2 lines, I guarantee. I have no idea what to do
Villanova 71, Xavier 67 (OT) - I just don't think the case can be made for X. In the end, no longshot BE hopeful comes through
B1G quarters:
Michigan St 77, Ohio St 70 - unfortunately for MSU, with all the ACC teams balling out and UK/UT happening, the 1 line door is shut for them. OSU will be a team I debate until the very end
Michigan 74, Iowa 53 - I'm going to flip my mind on Houston/Michigan for the last 2 seed about 574 times the next day or so, fair warning
Minnesota 75, Purdue 73 - well that's one less bubble team to worry about
Wisconsin 66, Nebraska 62
Big 12 quarters:
Iowa St 63, Kansas St 59 - can we just seed the entire Big 12 on the 5 and 6 lines and be done with it? KSU doesn't have a resume befitting of a conference champ
Kansas 88, West Virginia 74 - Kansas sure isn't getting a lot of resume help in this tourney
AAC quarters:
Houston 84, UConn 45 - see the 2 seed conversation elsewhere in this post
Memphis 79, UCF 55 - let's be honest; UCF gave away a fair chunk of goodwill the last couple of games, after doing great work prior. I think there's enough for selection though
Cincinnati 82, SMU 74
Wichita St 80, Temple 74 - the plot thickens for Temple
Pac-12 semis:
Washington 66, Colorado 61
Oregon 79, Arizona St 75 (OT) - do you guys realize we're one game, and one undervaluing of St John's resume, away from the Big East and Pac-12 getting the same number of bids to the tourney?
MWC semis:
San Diego St 65, Nevada 56 - this entire time, I've been seeding Nevada with the eye test in mind. This loss changes things a bit, and now their lack of an impact resume is a real issue for seeding
Utah St 85, Fresno St 60
MAC semis:
Buffalo 85, Central Michigan 81
Bowling Green 71, Northern Illinois 67
A-10 quarters:
Rhode Island 75, VCU 70 - are we sure VCU is safe? I mean, tell me their signature win. Go ahead. I mean, they're probably safe, but still
St Bonaventure 68, George Mason 57
Davidson 70, St Joseph's 60
St Louis 64, Dayton 55 - well this tourney turned into a tire fire right quick
CUSA semis:
Old Dominion 61, UAB 59
Western Kentucky 70, Southern Miss 59
Sun Belt quarters:
Texas St 79, South Alabama 67
Georgia Southern 81, Louisiana-Monroe 67
WAC semis:
New Mexico St 79, UTRGV 72
Grand Canyon 78, Utah Valley 74
Southland semis:
New Orleans 79, Sam Houston St 76
Abilene Christian 69, SE Louisiana 66
Big Sky semis:
Montana 78, Weber St 49
Eastern Washington 77, Southern Utah 61
Big West semis:
UC Irvine 75, Long Beach St 67
Cal St Fullerton 64, UCSB 58
SWAC semis:
Prairie View A&M 81, Grambling 71
Texas Southern 80, Alabama St 66
MEAC semis:
Norfolk St 75, Howard 69
North Carolina Central 65, NC A&T 63
Florida St 69, Virginia 59 - you know, if you really wanted to, you could put 4 ACC teams on the top 2 lines. FSU's floor is now the 3 line. Virginia....I think is still #1 overall, but I gotta look at this closer if Duke wins tomorrow
Duke 74, North Carolina 73 - I don't think the committee will put 3 ACC teams on the top line, so I think UNC is kinda screwed. But they have a resume worthy of the 1 line. Maybe UVa/Duke/UNC/Gonzaga on the 1 line, UK/UT winner as the top 2? I doubt they'd pull that trigger.
SEC quarters:
Kentucky 73, Alabama 55 - boy, I don't know about Alabama. Don't think I can do it
Tennessee 83, Mississippi St 76 - UK/UT for the 1 line, IMO
Florida 76, LSU 73 - and there goes LSU from the 1 line....and 2 line conversation. I was always a little aggressive with LSU the past couple weeks, thinking a dual SEC title would carry weight. But without this, and Michigan/FSU/Houston charging, I'm moving them to the 3 line. Florida probably has to be in now, btw
Auburn 73, South Carolina 64 - Auburn losing a chance at a signature win does kinda hurt. Florida won't move the needle
Big East semis:
Seton Hall 81, Marquette 79 - I'm going to mis-seed these teams by at least 2 lines, I guarantee. I have no idea what to do
Villanova 71, Xavier 67 (OT) - I just don't think the case can be made for X. In the end, no longshot BE hopeful comes through
B1G quarters:
Michigan St 77, Ohio St 70 - unfortunately for MSU, with all the ACC teams balling out and UK/UT happening, the 1 line door is shut for them. OSU will be a team I debate until the very end
Michigan 74, Iowa 53 - I'm going to flip my mind on Houston/Michigan for the last 2 seed about 574 times the next day or so, fair warning
Minnesota 75, Purdue 73 - well that's one less bubble team to worry about
Wisconsin 66, Nebraska 62
Big 12 quarters:
Iowa St 63, Kansas St 59 - can we just seed the entire Big 12 on the 5 and 6 lines and be done with it? KSU doesn't have a resume befitting of a conference champ
Kansas 88, West Virginia 74 - Kansas sure isn't getting a lot of resume help in this tourney
AAC quarters:
Houston 84, UConn 45 - see the 2 seed conversation elsewhere in this post
Memphis 79, UCF 55 - let's be honest; UCF gave away a fair chunk of goodwill the last couple of games, after doing great work prior. I think there's enough for selection though
Cincinnati 82, SMU 74
Wichita St 80, Temple 74 - the plot thickens for Temple
Pac-12 semis:
Washington 66, Colorado 61
Oregon 79, Arizona St 75 (OT) - do you guys realize we're one game, and one undervaluing of St John's resume, away from the Big East and Pac-12 getting the same number of bids to the tourney?
San Diego St 65, Nevada 56 - this entire time, I've been seeding Nevada with the eye test in mind. This loss changes things a bit, and now their lack of an impact resume is a real issue for seeding
Utah St 85, Fresno St 60
MAC semis:
Buffalo 85, Central Michigan 81
Bowling Green 71, Northern Illinois 67
A-10 quarters:
Rhode Island 75, VCU 70 - are we sure VCU is safe? I mean, tell me their signature win. Go ahead. I mean, they're probably safe, but still
St Bonaventure 68, George Mason 57
Davidson 70, St Joseph's 60
St Louis 64, Dayton 55 - well this tourney turned into a tire fire right quick
CUSA semis:
Old Dominion 61, UAB 59
Western Kentucky 70, Southern Miss 59
Sun Belt quarters:
Texas St 79, South Alabama 67
Georgia Southern 81, Louisiana-Monroe 67
WAC semis:
New Mexico St 79, UTRGV 72
Grand Canyon 78, Utah Valley 74
Southland semis:
New Orleans 79, Sam Houston St 76
Abilene Christian 69, SE Louisiana 66
Big Sky semis:
Montana 78, Weber St 49
Eastern Washington 77, Southern Utah 61
Big West semis:
UC Irvine 75, Long Beach St 67
Cal St Fullerton 64, UCSB 58
SWAC semis:
Prairie View A&M 81, Grambling 71
Texas Southern 80, Alabama St 66
MEAC semis:
Norfolk St 75, Howard 69
North Carolina Central 65, NC A&T 63
Thursday, March 14, 2019
3/15 SEED LIST
I've dropped Gonzaga to the 2 line, but relax, they're moving back to the 1 line tomorrow. Yes, it's weird, but there's logic behind it. A healthy Zion means Duke HAS to be on the 1 line right now. But either UNC or Duke will lose tomorrow, and Gonzaga will take their spot on the 1 line back. For one day, though, I need to funnel Duke back to the top line.
That last spot on the 3 line is vulnerable. Go get it, everyone on the 4 line.
Indiana and NC State losses give me the opening to slot Furman back in. I dunno, part of this rings true to me. 2 mid-majors in the last 4 in, while 2 others get snubbed. Feels like a committee human-based compromise to me.
The 1 line: Virginia, Kentucky, North Carolina, Duke
The 2 line: Gonzaga, LSU, Tennessee, Michigan St
The 3 line: Houston, Michigan, Purdue, Texas Tech
The 4 line: Florida St, Kansas, Wisconsin, Kansas St
The 5 line: Virginia Tech, Mississippi St, Marquette, Auburn
The 6 line: Buffalo, Nevada, Maryland, Villanova
The 7 line: Wofford, Louisville, Iowa St, Cincinnati
The 8 line: VCU, UCF, Baylor, Seton Hall
The 9 line: Ole Miss, Syracuse, Arizona St, Oklahoma
The 10 line: Iowa, Washington, Minnesota, St John's
The 11 line: St Mary's, Utah St, Florida, Temple
The 12 line: Ohio St, TCU, Belmont, Furman, Murray St, Liberty
The 13 line: New Mexico St, Old Dominion, Northeastern, UC Irvine
The 14 line: Vermont, Georgia St, Harvard, Northern Kentucky
The 15 line: Bradley, Colgate, Montana, Gardner-Webb
The 16 line: Sam Houston St, North Dakota St, Iona, Fairleigh Dickinson, Prairie View A&M, Norfolk St
Next 4 in:
St John's
Utah St
Florida
Temple
Last 4 in:
Ohio St
TCU
Belmont
Furman
Last 4 out:
Indiana
UNC Greensboro
North Carolina St
Alabama
Next 4 out:
Texas
Lipscomb
Clemson
Xavier
Still on the consideration board:
Oregon
Georgetown
Creighton
That last spot on the 3 line is vulnerable. Go get it, everyone on the 4 line.
Indiana and NC State losses give me the opening to slot Furman back in. I dunno, part of this rings true to me. 2 mid-majors in the last 4 in, while 2 others get snubbed. Feels like a committee human-based compromise to me.
The 1 line: Virginia, Kentucky, North Carolina, Duke
The 2 line: Gonzaga, LSU, Tennessee, Michigan St
The 3 line: Houston, Michigan, Purdue, Texas Tech
The 4 line: Florida St, Kansas, Wisconsin, Kansas St
The 5 line: Virginia Tech, Mississippi St, Marquette, Auburn
The 6 line: Buffalo, Nevada, Maryland, Villanova
The 7 line: Wofford, Louisville, Iowa St, Cincinnati
The 8 line: VCU, UCF, Baylor, Seton Hall
The 9 line: Ole Miss, Syracuse, Arizona St, Oklahoma
The 10 line: Iowa, Washington, Minnesota, St John's
The 11 line: St Mary's, Utah St, Florida, Temple
The 12 line: Ohio St, TCU, Belmont, Furman, Murray St, Liberty
The 13 line: New Mexico St, Old Dominion, Northeastern, UC Irvine
The 14 line: Vermont, Georgia St, Harvard, Northern Kentucky
The 15 line: Bradley, Colgate, Montana, Gardner-Webb
The 16 line: Sam Houston St, North Dakota St, Iona, Fairleigh Dickinson, Prairie View A&M, Norfolk St
Next 4 in:
St John's
Utah St
Florida
Temple
Last 4 in:
Ohio St
TCU
Belmont
Furman
Last 4 out:
Indiana
UNC Greensboro
North Carolina St
Alabama
Next 4 out:
Texas
Lipscomb
Clemson
Xavier
Still on the consideration board:
Oregon
Georgetown
Creighton
3/14 recap
ACC quarters:
Virginia 76, NC State 56 - I think I'm going to do everything in my power to not put NC State in this field
Florida St 65, Virginia Tech 63 (OT)
North Carolina 83, Louisville 70
Duke 84, Syracuse 72 - Duke/UNC for a spot on the 1 line
Big 12 quarters:
West Virginia 79, Texas Tech 74 - wat
Kansas St 70, TCU 61 - the bubble isn't really shrinking, so I think TCU might be home free, but I'm not feeling great about it
Kansas 65, Texas 57 - you can't put a .500 team in this tournament. You just can't
Iowa St 83, Baylor 66
Big East quarters:
Marquette 86, St John's 54
Villanova 73, Providence 62
Xavier 63, Creighton 61 - I think that's the end of Creighton. Xavier will be a fun revisit if they beat Nova
Seton Hall 73, Georgetown 57 - and that's it for Georgetown. Things simplified in this conference: SHU in, SJU probably in, Xavier longshot, and that's it
B1G 2nd round:
Nebraska 69, Maryland 61 - well, that's one less team we have to worry about on the 4 and 5 lines
Ohio St 79, Indiana 75 - I think that might be one loss too many for Indiana. And only 17 wins. Some of these other teams with 14 losses that got in in the past had more than 17 wins. Man, I just don't know. I need to look at this closer
Minnesota 77, Penn St 72 (OT) - Minny is probably home free
Iowa 83, Illinois 62 - Iowa needed to avoid the disaster scenario, and they did. Streaking towards a 8 big B1G at this point
SEC 2nd round:
Auburn 81, Missouri 71
Florida 66, Arkansas 50
Alabama 62, Ole Miss 57 - that's a significant win, and now we gotta discuss Alabama. Especially if they get one more
Mississippi St 80, Texas A&M 54
Pac-12 quarters:
Washington 78, USC 75
Colorado 73, Oregon St 58
Arizona St 83, UCLA 72
Oregon 66, Utah 54 - hey what do you know, the Pac-12 got their 4 best teams to a semifinal. I think you're also looking at the 2 NCAA and 2 NIT teams here, with an modest chance for both OSU and Utah to sneak in
AAC 1st round:
UConn 80, South Florida 73
Memphis 83, Tulane 68
SMU 74, Tulsa 65
Wichita St 73, East Carolina 57
MWC quarters:
Nevada 77, Boise St 69
San Diego St 63, UNLV 55
Utah St 91, New Mexico 83
Fresno St 76, Air Force 50
MAC quarters:
Buffalo 82, Akron 46
Central Michigan 89, Kent St 81
Northern Illinois 80, Toledo 76 - that's going to cost Toledo a NIT bid and the MAC their best chance at generating an at-large bid artificially (by upsetting Buffalo) they've ever had
Bowling Green 99, Ball St 86
A-10 2nd round:
Rhode Island 76, LaSalle 57
George Mason 61, George Washington 57
St Joseph's 92, Duquesne 86
St Louis 71, Richmond 68
Big Sky quarters:
Montana 79, Sacramento St 73
Weber St 81, Portland St 71
Southern Utah 83, Northern Colorado 64
Eastern Washington 90, Montana St 84
Big West quarters:
UCSB 71, Cal St Northridge 68
Cal St Fullerton 75, UC Davis 71
UC Irvine 63, UC Riverside 44
Long Beach St 68, Hawaii 66
WAC quarters:
New Mexico St 86, Chicago St 49
UTRGV 85, Cal St Bakersfield 70
Utah Valley 71, UMKC 64
Grand Canyon 84, Seattle 75
CUSA quarters:
Old Dominion 57, Louisiana Tech 56
UAB 85, UTSA 76
Western Kentucky 67, North Texas 51
Southern Miss 82, Marshall 73
Southland 2nd round:
New Orleans 76, Lamar 72
SE Louisiana 79, Central Arkansas 65
Sun Belt 2nd round:
South Alabama 70, Louisiana 69
Louisiana-Monroe 80, Coastal Carolina 50
MEAC quarters:
North Carolina Central 75, Delaware St 57
Howard 80, Bethune-Cookman 71
Virginia 76, NC State 56 - I think I'm going to do everything in my power to not put NC State in this field
Florida St 65, Virginia Tech 63 (OT)
North Carolina 83, Louisville 70
Duke 84, Syracuse 72 - Duke/UNC for a spot on the 1 line
Big 12 quarters:
West Virginia 79, Texas Tech 74 - wat
Kansas St 70, TCU 61 - the bubble isn't really shrinking, so I think TCU might be home free, but I'm not feeling great about it
Kansas 65, Texas 57 - you can't put a .500 team in this tournament. You just can't
Iowa St 83, Baylor 66
Big East quarters:
Marquette 86, St John's 54
Villanova 73, Providence 62
Xavier 63, Creighton 61 - I think that's the end of Creighton. Xavier will be a fun revisit if they beat Nova
Seton Hall 73, Georgetown 57 - and that's it for Georgetown. Things simplified in this conference: SHU in, SJU probably in, Xavier longshot, and that's it
B1G 2nd round:
Nebraska 69, Maryland 61 - well, that's one less team we have to worry about on the 4 and 5 lines
Ohio St 79, Indiana 75 - I think that might be one loss too many for Indiana. And only 17 wins. Some of these other teams with 14 losses that got in in the past had more than 17 wins. Man, I just don't know. I need to look at this closer
Minnesota 77, Penn St 72 (OT) - Minny is probably home free
Iowa 83, Illinois 62 - Iowa needed to avoid the disaster scenario, and they did. Streaking towards a 8 big B1G at this point
SEC 2nd round:
Auburn 81, Missouri 71
Florida 66, Arkansas 50
Alabama 62, Ole Miss 57 - that's a significant win, and now we gotta discuss Alabama. Especially if they get one more
Mississippi St 80, Texas A&M 54
Pac-12 quarters:
Washington 78, USC 75
Colorado 73, Oregon St 58
Arizona St 83, UCLA 72
Oregon 66, Utah 54 - hey what do you know, the Pac-12 got their 4 best teams to a semifinal. I think you're also looking at the 2 NCAA and 2 NIT teams here, with an modest chance for both OSU and Utah to sneak in
AAC 1st round:
UConn 80, South Florida 73
Memphis 83, Tulane 68
SMU 74, Tulsa 65
Wichita St 73, East Carolina 57
MWC quarters:
Nevada 77, Boise St 69
San Diego St 63, UNLV 55
Utah St 91, New Mexico 83
Fresno St 76, Air Force 50
MAC quarters:
Buffalo 82, Akron 46
Central Michigan 89, Kent St 81
Northern Illinois 80, Toledo 76 - that's going to cost Toledo a NIT bid and the MAC their best chance at generating an at-large bid artificially (by upsetting Buffalo) they've ever had
Bowling Green 99, Ball St 86
A-10 2nd round:
Rhode Island 76, LaSalle 57
George Mason 61, George Washington 57
St Joseph's 92, Duquesne 86
St Louis 71, Richmond 68
Big Sky quarters:
Montana 79, Sacramento St 73
Weber St 81, Portland St 71
Southern Utah 83, Northern Colorado 64
Eastern Washington 90, Montana St 84
Big West quarters:
UCSB 71, Cal St Northridge 68
Cal St Fullerton 75, UC Davis 71
UC Irvine 63, UC Riverside 44
Long Beach St 68, Hawaii 66
WAC quarters:
New Mexico St 86, Chicago St 49
UTRGV 85, Cal St Bakersfield 70
Utah Valley 71, UMKC 64
Grand Canyon 84, Seattle 75
CUSA quarters:
Old Dominion 57, Louisiana Tech 56
UAB 85, UTSA 76
Western Kentucky 67, North Texas 51
Southern Miss 82, Marshall 73
Southland 2nd round:
New Orleans 76, Lamar 72
SE Louisiana 79, Central Arkansas 65
Sun Belt 2nd round:
South Alabama 70, Louisiana 69
Louisiana-Monroe 80, Coastal Carolina 50
MEAC quarters:
North Carolina Central 75, Delaware St 57
Howard 80, Bethune-Cookman 71
3/14 SEED LIST
The entirety of this update:
Oklahoma from an 8 to a 9. Ole Miss is the swap team.
And reordering the teams within last 4 out. The more I look at it, the more real the chance is that UNCG gets 2006 Hofstra'd by Furman.
The 1 line: Virginia, Kentucky, North Carolina, Gonzaga
The 2 line: Duke, LSU, Tennessee, Michigan St
The 3 line: Houston, Texas Tech, Michigan, Purdue
The 4 line: Florida St, Kansas, Wisconsin, Kansas St
The 5 line: Virginia Tech, Maryland, Mississippi St, Marquette
The 6 line: Auburn, Buffalo, Nevada, Villanova
The 7 line: Wofford, Louisville, Iowa St, Cincinnati
The 8 line: Baylor, VCU, UCF, Ole Miss
The 9 line: Syracuse, Seton Hall, Arizona St, Oklahoma
The 10 line: Iowa, Washington, Minnesota, St John's
The 11 line: St Mary's, Utah St, Florida, Temple
The 12 line: Ohio St, TCU, Indiana, Belmont, Murray St, New Mexico St
The 13 line: Liberty, Old Dominion, Northeastern, UC Irvine
The 14 line: Vermont, Georgia St, Harvard, Northern Kentucky
The 15 line: Bradley, Colgate, Montana, Gardner-Webb
The 16 line: Sam Houston St, North Dakota St, Iona, Fairleigh Dickinson, Prairie View A&M, Norfolk St
Next 4 in:
St John's
Utah St
Florida
Temple
Last 4 in:
Ohio St
TCU
Indiana
Belmont
Last 4 out:
North Carolina St
Furman
UNC Greensboro
Texas
Next 4 out:
Lipscomb
Clemson
Alabama
Georgetown
Oklahoma from an 8 to a 9. Ole Miss is the swap team.
And reordering the teams within last 4 out. The more I look at it, the more real the chance is that UNCG gets 2006 Hofstra'd by Furman.
The 1 line: Virginia, Kentucky, North Carolina, Gonzaga
The 2 line: Duke, LSU, Tennessee, Michigan St
The 3 line: Houston, Texas Tech, Michigan, Purdue
The 4 line: Florida St, Kansas, Wisconsin, Kansas St
The 5 line: Virginia Tech, Maryland, Mississippi St, Marquette
The 6 line: Auburn, Buffalo, Nevada, Villanova
The 7 line: Wofford, Louisville, Iowa St, Cincinnati
The 8 line: Baylor, VCU, UCF, Ole Miss
The 9 line: Syracuse, Seton Hall, Arizona St, Oklahoma
The 10 line: Iowa, Washington, Minnesota, St John's
The 11 line: St Mary's, Utah St, Florida, Temple
The 12 line: Ohio St, TCU, Indiana, Belmont, Murray St, New Mexico St
The 13 line: Liberty, Old Dominion, Northeastern, UC Irvine
The 14 line: Vermont, Georgia St, Harvard, Northern Kentucky
The 15 line: Bradley, Colgate, Montana, Gardner-Webb
The 16 line: Sam Houston St, North Dakota St, Iona, Fairleigh Dickinson, Prairie View A&M, Norfolk St
Next 4 in:
St John's
Utah St
Florida
Temple
Last 4 in:
Ohio St
TCU
Indiana
Belmont
Last 4 out:
North Carolina St
Furman
UNC Greensboro
Texas
Next 4 out:
Lipscomb
Clemson
Alabama
Georgetown
3/13 recap
Patriot final:
Colgate 94, Bucknell 80
ACC 2nd round:
NC State 59, Clemson 58 - well, we can throw Clemson away at least. Now....what do you do with the 353rd best non-con SoS in the country? I would advise another win, NC State
Virginia Tech 71, Miami 56
Louisville 75, Notre Dame 53
Syracuse 73, Pitt 59
Big 12 1st round:
TCU 73, Oklahoma St 70 - good god what a near disaster
West Virginia 72, Oklahoma 71 - uh oh. I think OU built up enough goodwill, though
Big East 1st round:
Providence 80, Butler 57 - PU two wins away from becoming a conversation piece
St John's 82, DePaul 74
B1G 1st round:
Nebraska 68, Rutgers 61
Illinois 74, Northwestern 69 (OT)
SEC 1st round:
Missouri 71, Georgia 61
Texas A&M 69, Vandy 52
Pac-12 1st round:
USC 78, Arizona 65
Colorado 56, Cal 51
UCLA 79, Stanford 72
Oregon 84, Washington St 51 - if nothing else, I think we identified 2 NIT locks in Oregon and Colorado
A-10 1st round:
George Washington 68, UMass 64 (OT)
Richmond 52, Fordham 50
MWC 1st round:
Boise St 66, Colorado St 57
New Mexico 78, Wyoming 68
Air Force 87, San Jose St 56
CUSA 1st round:
Louisiana Tech 57, Florida Atlantic 56
UAB 70, Middle Tennessee 61
North Texas 71, FIU 57
Marshall 82, Rice 65
Big Sky 1st round:
Sacramento St 72, Northern Arizona 60
Southern Utah 94, Idaho St 80
Montana St 75, Idaho 71
MEAC quarters:
Norfolk St 78, South Carolina St 73
NC A&T 82, Coppin St 79 (OT)
Southland 1st round:
Lamar 81, Houston Baptist 79
Central Arkansas 73, Texas A&M-CC 53
Colgate 94, Bucknell 80
ACC 2nd round:
NC State 59, Clemson 58 - well, we can throw Clemson away at least. Now....what do you do with the 353rd best non-con SoS in the country? I would advise another win, NC State
Virginia Tech 71, Miami 56
Louisville 75, Notre Dame 53
Syracuse 73, Pitt 59
Big 12 1st round:
TCU 73, Oklahoma St 70 - good god what a near disaster
West Virginia 72, Oklahoma 71 - uh oh. I think OU built up enough goodwill, though
Big East 1st round:
Providence 80, Butler 57 - PU two wins away from becoming a conversation piece
St John's 82, DePaul 74
B1G 1st round:
Nebraska 68, Rutgers 61
Illinois 74, Northwestern 69 (OT)
SEC 1st round:
Missouri 71, Georgia 61
Texas A&M 69, Vandy 52
Pac-12 1st round:
USC 78, Arizona 65
Colorado 56, Cal 51
UCLA 79, Stanford 72
Oregon 84, Washington St 51 - if nothing else, I think we identified 2 NIT locks in Oregon and Colorado
A-10 1st round:
George Washington 68, UMass 64 (OT)
Richmond 52, Fordham 50
MWC 1st round:
Boise St 66, Colorado St 57
New Mexico 78, Wyoming 68
Air Force 87, San Jose St 56
CUSA 1st round:
Louisiana Tech 57, Florida Atlantic 56
UAB 70, Middle Tennessee 61
North Texas 71, FIU 57
Marshall 82, Rice 65
Big Sky 1st round:
Sacramento St 72, Northern Arizona 60
Southern Utah 94, Idaho St 80
Montana St 75, Idaho 71
MEAC quarters:
Norfolk St 78, South Carolina St 73
NC A&T 82, Coppin St 79 (OT)
Southland 1st round:
Lamar 81, Houston Baptist 79
Central Arkansas 73, Texas A&M-CC 53
Wednesday, March 13, 2019
Big West conference tournament preview
This is part 32 of a 32-part series.
Standings:
UC Irvine 15-1
UC Santa Barbara 10-6
Cal St Fullerton 10-6
Hawaii 9-7
Long Beach St 8-8
UC Davis 7-9
Cal St Northridge 7-9
UC Riverside 4-12
Cal Poly 2-14
Format:
March 14-16, neutral site in Anaheim. Bottom team is ejected.
Matchups:
1) UC Irvine vs. 8) UC Riverside
4) Hawaii vs. 5) Long Beach St
3) Cal St Fullerton vs. 6) UC Davis
2) UCSB vs. 7) Cal St Northridge
The stakes:
UC Irvine is sitting there with a NET of 76. Let's investigate. A quality road win at St Mary's, a road win at @A&M....and that's all for the top 2 quadrants. Only two bad losses on the board though. A poor SoS. Feels like a borderline 13-14 seed to me.
UCSB probably has a fair chance at avoiding the 16 line, but that's about it. No one else in the conference is really in decent position to avoid the 16 line, though. They're buried in the low 20s in CNET.
Standings:
UC Irvine 15-1
UC Santa Barbara 10-6
Cal St Fullerton 10-6
Hawaii 9-7
Long Beach St 8-8
UC Davis 7-9
Cal St Northridge 7-9
UC Riverside 4-12
Cal Poly 2-14
Format:
March 14-16, neutral site in Anaheim. Bottom team is ejected.
Matchups:
1) UC Irvine vs. 8) UC Riverside
4) Hawaii vs. 5) Long Beach St
3) Cal St Fullerton vs. 6) UC Davis
2) UCSB vs. 7) Cal St Northridge
The stakes:
UC Irvine is sitting there with a NET of 76. Let's investigate. A quality road win at St Mary's, a road win at @A&M....and that's all for the top 2 quadrants. Only two bad losses on the board though. A poor SoS. Feels like a borderline 13-14 seed to me.
UCSB probably has a fair chance at avoiding the 16 line, but that's about it. No one else in the conference is really in decent position to avoid the 16 line, though. They're buried in the low 20s in CNET.
WAC conference tournament preview
This is part 31 of a 32-part series.
Standings:
New Mexico St 15-1
Utah Valley 12-4
Grand Canyon 10-6
UTRGV 9-7
Cal St-Bakersfield 7-9
Seattle 6-10
UMKC 6-10
Chicago St 0-16
Format:
March 14-16 in Paradise, Nevada (basically Vegas).
Matchups:
1) New Mexico St vs. 8) Chicago St
4) UTRGV vs. 5) Cal St-Bakersfield
3) Grand Canyon vs. 6) Seattle
2) Utah Valley vs. 7) UMKC
The stakes:
On the surface, New Mexico St has a NET of 45, and just 4 losses. Dig deeper, and you find their only 2 Q1/2 wins are @UVU and @GC (conference road games). Bad non-con SoS. And they actually took a couple Q3 losses. So no at-large bid here. But with that NET, they should have a reasonable chance at the 13 line. It's not impossible they fall to a 14, but I think the committee will be biased towards the name a bit.
UVU and GCU are actually sub-100 in NET. That's kinda impressive. UVU only really has a win at Fresno to lean on, and GCU doesn't even have any Q1/2 win, so I can't imagine either team doing better than a 15 seed. But they might be a good litmus test for just how much NET matters on seeding these teams down here.
Standings:
New Mexico St 15-1
Utah Valley 12-4
Grand Canyon 10-6
UTRGV 9-7
Cal St-Bakersfield 7-9
Seattle 6-10
UMKC 6-10
Chicago St 0-16
Format:
March 14-16 in Paradise, Nevada (basically Vegas).
Matchups:
1) New Mexico St vs. 8) Chicago St
4) UTRGV vs. 5) Cal St-Bakersfield
3) Grand Canyon vs. 6) Seattle
2) Utah Valley vs. 7) UMKC
The stakes:
On the surface, New Mexico St has a NET of 45, and just 4 losses. Dig deeper, and you find their only 2 Q1/2 wins are @UVU and @GC (conference road games). Bad non-con SoS. And they actually took a couple Q3 losses. So no at-large bid here. But with that NET, they should have a reasonable chance at the 13 line. It's not impossible they fall to a 14, but I think the committee will be biased towards the name a bit.
UVU and GCU are actually sub-100 in NET. That's kinda impressive. UVU only really has a win at Fresno to lean on, and GCU doesn't even have any Q1/2 win, so I can't imagine either team doing better than a 15 seed. But they might be a good litmus test for just how much NET matters on seeding these teams down here.
Ivy League conference tournament preview
This is part 30 of a 32-part series.
Standings:
Harvard 10-4
Yale 10-4
Princeton 8-6
Penn 7-7
Brown 7-7
Cornell 7-7
Columbia 5-9
Dartmouth 2-12
Format:
March 16-17, Yale is the institution hosting. Only 4 teams here, as the league clings to the last bastion of morality in this corrupt world.
Matchups:
1) Harvard vs. 4) Penn
2) Yale vs. 3) Princeton
The stakes:
Could be anywhere from a 13 seed to a 15 seed for the conference champ here. Good non-con season led to a CNET ranking of 11, so they're in good position.
Harvard's got a win at St Mary's among 3 Q1/2 wins, and a overall SoS of 85. It would just be a question of how many other teams make it around them in other conferences, on whether they'd be a 13 or 14.
Yale has the best NET (at 86, the only one inside the top 100), but the driest resume, with a N-Miami being the only Q1/2 win. They're probably more stuck on the 14 line, with an outside chance at the 15.
Princeton beat @Arizona St but don't have much else going for it in the profile. 14 line.
Penn has the sexy wins (Nova, @Temple), but 3 Q3 AND 3 Q4 losses are harmful. Still though, when you're talking about the 14-15 lines, it takes a lot to really damage you. So I think they'd hold onto a 14 seed.
The real tragedy is all 4 teams took just enough damage to take them out of NIT range.
Standings:
Harvard 10-4
Yale 10-4
Princeton 8-6
Penn 7-7
Brown 7-7
Cornell 7-7
Columbia 5-9
Dartmouth 2-12
Format:
March 16-17, Yale is the institution hosting. Only 4 teams here, as the league clings to the last bastion of morality in this corrupt world.
Matchups:
1) Harvard vs. 4) Penn
2) Yale vs. 3) Princeton
The stakes:
Could be anywhere from a 13 seed to a 15 seed for the conference champ here. Good non-con season led to a CNET ranking of 11, so they're in good position.
Harvard's got a win at St Mary's among 3 Q1/2 wins, and a overall SoS of 85. It would just be a question of how many other teams make it around them in other conferences, on whether they'd be a 13 or 14.
Yale has the best NET (at 86, the only one inside the top 100), but the driest resume, with a N-Miami being the only Q1/2 win. They're probably more stuck on the 14 line, with an outside chance at the 15.
Princeton beat @Arizona St but don't have much else going for it in the profile. 14 line.
Penn has the sexy wins (Nova, @Temple), but 3 Q3 AND 3 Q4 losses are harmful. Still though, when you're talking about the 14-15 lines, it takes a lot to really damage you. So I think they'd hold onto a 14 seed.
The real tragedy is all 4 teams took just enough damage to take them out of NIT range.
Tuesday, March 12, 2019
3/13 BRACKET
EAST 36
@Columbus
1) Virginia vs. 16) Fairleigh Dickinson/Prairie View A&M
8) Oklahoma vs. 9) Seton Hall
@San Jose
4) Kansas St vs. 13) Old Dominion
5) Marquette vs. 12) Indiana/Belmont
@Hartford
3) Purdue vs. 14) Northern Kentucky
6) Buffalo vs. 11) Florida
@Jacksonville
2) Tennessee vs. 15) Montana
7) Louisville vs. 10) St John's
WEST 35
@Salt Lake City
1) Gonzaga vs. 16) North Dakota St
8) Baylor vs. 9) Arizona St
@Hartford
4) Florida St vs. 13) Liberty
5) Maryland vs. 12) Murray St
@Tulsa
3) Texas Tech vs. 14) Georgia St
6) Nevada vs. 11) St Mary's
@Des Moines
2) Michigan St vs. 15) Bradley
7) Cincinnati vs. 10) Washington
MIDWEST 33
@Columbia
1) North Carolina vs. 16) Sam Houston St
8) UCF vs. 9) Ole Miss
@San Jose
4) Wisconsin vs. 13) Northeastern
5) Mississippi St vs. 12) Ohio St/TCU
@Tulsa
3) Houston vs. 14) Harvard
6) Auburn vs. 11) Utah St
@Jacksonville
2) LSU vs. 15) Gardner-Webb
7) Iowa St vs. 10) Minnesota
SOUTH 32
@Columbus
1) Kentucky vs. 16) Iona/Norfolk St
8) VCU vs. 9) Syracuse
@Salt Lake City
4) Kansas vs. 13) UC Irvine
5) Virginia Tech vs. 12) New Mexico St
@Des Moines
3) Michigan vs. 14) Vermont
6) Villanova vs. 11) Temple
@Columbia
2) Duke vs. 15) Colgate
7) Wofford vs. 10) Iowa
@Columbus
1) Virginia vs. 16) Fairleigh Dickinson/Prairie View A&M
8) Oklahoma vs. 9) Seton Hall
@San Jose
4) Kansas St vs. 13) Old Dominion
5) Marquette vs. 12) Indiana/Belmont
@Hartford
3) Purdue vs. 14) Northern Kentucky
6) Buffalo vs. 11) Florida
@Jacksonville
2) Tennessee vs. 15) Montana
7) Louisville vs. 10) St John's
WEST 35
@Salt Lake City
1) Gonzaga vs. 16) North Dakota St
8) Baylor vs. 9) Arizona St
@Hartford
4) Florida St vs. 13) Liberty
5) Maryland vs. 12) Murray St
@Tulsa
3) Texas Tech vs. 14) Georgia St
6) Nevada vs. 11) St Mary's
@Des Moines
2) Michigan St vs. 15) Bradley
7) Cincinnati vs. 10) Washington
MIDWEST 33
@Columbia
1) North Carolina vs. 16) Sam Houston St
8) UCF vs. 9) Ole Miss
@San Jose
4) Wisconsin vs. 13) Northeastern
5) Mississippi St vs. 12) Ohio St/TCU
@Tulsa
3) Houston vs. 14) Harvard
6) Auburn vs. 11) Utah St
@Jacksonville
2) LSU vs. 15) Gardner-Webb
7) Iowa St vs. 10) Minnesota
SOUTH 32
@Columbus
1) Kentucky vs. 16) Iona/Norfolk St
8) VCU vs. 9) Syracuse
@Salt Lake City
4) Kansas vs. 13) UC Irvine
5) Virginia Tech vs. 12) New Mexico St
@Des Moines
3) Michigan vs. 14) Vermont
6) Villanova vs. 11) Temple
@Columbia
2) Duke vs. 15) Colgate
7) Wofford vs. 10) Iowa
3/13 SEED LIST
Kentucky all the way to 2nd feels aggressive, but remind yourself: everyone plays everyone else this week, so these rankings at the top are going to sort themselves out.
Doing some seed scrubbing...adjusting Louisville and Iowa in this revision a bit. Also Houston. And Seton Hall.
This bubble....I keep looking at those ACC schools...no way. I just can't. If it's Indiana vs. them, I can't see how you keep all of Indiana's signature wins out of the tourney when NCSU is slumming around with their non-con SoS.
I will change my mind though, don't worry. Lots of scrubbing between now and Sunday.
The 1 line: Virginia, Kentucky, North Carolina, Gonzaga
The 2 line: Duke, LSU, Tennessee, Michigan St
The 3 line: Houston, Texas Tech, Michigan, Purdue
The 4 line: Florida St, Kansas, Wisconsin, Kansas St
The 5 line: Virginia Tech, Maryland, Mississippi St, Marquette
The 6 line: Auburn, Buffalo, Nevada, Villanova
The 7 line: Wofford, Louisville, Iowa St, Cincinnati
The 8 line: Baylor, VCU, Oklahoma, UCF
The 9 line: Ole Miss, Syracuse, Seton Hall, Arizona St
The 10 line: Iowa, Washington, Minnesota, St John's
The 11 line: St Mary's, Utah St, Florida, Temple
The 12 line: Ohio St, TCU, Indiana, Belmont, Murray St, New Mexico St
The 13 line: Liberty, Old Dominion, Northeastern, UC Irvine
The 14 line: Vermont, Georgia St, Harvard, Northern Kentucky
The 15 line: Bradley, Colgate, Montana, Gardner-Webb
The 16 line: Sam Houston St, North Dakota St, Iona, Fairleigh Dickinson, Prairie View A&M, Norfolk St
Next 4 in:
St John's
Utah St
Florida
Temple
Last 4 in:
Ohio St
TCU
Indiana
Belmont
Last 4 out:
Clemson
UNC Greensboro
North Carolina St
Furman
Next 4 out:
Texas
Lipscomb
Alabama
Georgetown
NIT lines:
The 1 line: Clemson, UNC Greensboro, North Carolina St, Furman
The 2 line: Texas, Lipscomb, Alabama, Georgetown
The 3 line: Creighton, Xavier, Oregon, Davidson
The 4 line: Providence, Toledo, Colorado, Arkansas
The 5 line: Memphis, BYU, Dayton, Butler
The 6 line: Hofstra, East Tennessee St, Oregon St, Fresno St
The 7 line: South Carolina, San Francisco, Utah, Loyola(Chi)
The 8 line: South Dakota St, Wright St, Campbell, St Francis(PA)
Last 4 in (projected cutline):
BYU
Dayton
Butler
East Tennessee St
Last 8 out (projected cutline):
Oregon St
Fresno St
South Carolina
San Francisco
Utah
Wichita St
Tulsa
Arizona
Doing some seed scrubbing...adjusting Louisville and Iowa in this revision a bit. Also Houston. And Seton Hall.
This bubble....I keep looking at those ACC schools...no way. I just can't. If it's Indiana vs. them, I can't see how you keep all of Indiana's signature wins out of the tourney when NCSU is slumming around with their non-con SoS.
I will change my mind though, don't worry. Lots of scrubbing between now and Sunday.
The 1 line: Virginia, Kentucky, North Carolina, Gonzaga
The 2 line: Duke, LSU, Tennessee, Michigan St
The 3 line: Houston, Texas Tech, Michigan, Purdue
The 4 line: Florida St, Kansas, Wisconsin, Kansas St
The 5 line: Virginia Tech, Maryland, Mississippi St, Marquette
The 6 line: Auburn, Buffalo, Nevada, Villanova
The 7 line: Wofford, Louisville, Iowa St, Cincinnati
The 8 line: Baylor, VCU, Oklahoma, UCF
The 9 line: Ole Miss, Syracuse, Seton Hall, Arizona St
The 10 line: Iowa, Washington, Minnesota, St John's
The 11 line: St Mary's, Utah St, Florida, Temple
The 12 line: Ohio St, TCU, Indiana, Belmont, Murray St, New Mexico St
The 13 line: Liberty, Old Dominion, Northeastern, UC Irvine
The 14 line: Vermont, Georgia St, Harvard, Northern Kentucky
The 15 line: Bradley, Colgate, Montana, Gardner-Webb
The 16 line: Sam Houston St, North Dakota St, Iona, Fairleigh Dickinson, Prairie View A&M, Norfolk St
Next 4 in:
St John's
Utah St
Florida
Temple
Last 4 in:
Ohio St
TCU
Indiana
Belmont
Last 4 out:
Clemson
UNC Greensboro
North Carolina St
Furman
Next 4 out:
Texas
Lipscomb
Alabama
Georgetown
NIT lines:
The 1 line: Clemson, UNC Greensboro, North Carolina St, Furman
The 2 line: Texas, Lipscomb, Alabama, Georgetown
The 3 line: Creighton, Xavier, Oregon, Davidson
The 4 line: Providence, Toledo, Colorado, Arkansas
The 5 line: Memphis, BYU, Dayton, Butler
The 6 line: Hofstra, East Tennessee St, Oregon St, Fresno St
The 7 line: South Carolina, San Francisco, Utah, Loyola(Chi)
The 8 line: South Dakota St, Wright St, Campbell, St Francis(PA)
Last 4 in (projected cutline):
BYU
Dayton
Butler
East Tennessee St
Last 8 out (projected cutline):
Oregon St
Fresno St
South Carolina
San Francisco
Utah
Wichita St
Tulsa
Arizona
3/12 recap
WCC finals:
St Mary's 60, Gonzaga 47 - well well well. The plot thickens on the 1 line. The dirty secret is that Gonzaga's computer profile isn't its usual stout self. 4 Q1 wins, but @San Fran and @Creighton are kinda dummy wins. 6 Q2 wins, which isn't nothing, but they get lapped by all other contenders in the quality win market. No bad losses (or at least, N-St Mary's is comparable to other teams' worst losses in this range). I think they stay on the 1 line.
Oh, and a bubble team falls off the back end.
CAA finals:
Northeastern 82, Hofstra 74
NEC finals:
Fairleigh Dickinson 85, St Francis(PA) 76
Horizon finals:
Northern Kentucky 77, Wright St 66
Summit finals:
North Dakota St 73, Omaha 63
AEast semis:
Vermont 84, Binghamton 51
UMBC 90, Hartford 85 (2OT)
ACC 1st round:
Miami 79, Wake Forest 71
Notre Dame 78, Georgia Tech 71
Pitt 80, BC 70
Sun Belt 1st round:
South Alabama 75, Arkansas St 67
Louisiana-Monroe 89, Appalachian St 80
MEAC 1st round:
South Carolina St 63, UMES 54
Coppin St 81, Morgan St 71
SWAC quarters:
Prairie View A&M 86, Alcorn St 66
Grambling 59, UAPB 52
Texas Southern 80, Southern 70
Alabama St 58, Jackson St 49
St Mary's 60, Gonzaga 47 - well well well. The plot thickens on the 1 line. The dirty secret is that Gonzaga's computer profile isn't its usual stout self. 4 Q1 wins, but @San Fran and @Creighton are kinda dummy wins. 6 Q2 wins, which isn't nothing, but they get lapped by all other contenders in the quality win market. No bad losses (or at least, N-St Mary's is comparable to other teams' worst losses in this range). I think they stay on the 1 line.
Oh, and a bubble team falls off the back end.
CAA finals:
Northeastern 82, Hofstra 74
NEC finals:
Fairleigh Dickinson 85, St Francis(PA) 76
Horizon finals:
Northern Kentucky 77, Wright St 66
Summit finals:
North Dakota St 73, Omaha 63
AEast semis:
Vermont 84, Binghamton 51
UMBC 90, Hartford 85 (2OT)
ACC 1st round:
Miami 79, Wake Forest 71
Notre Dame 78, Georgia Tech 71
Pitt 80, BC 70
Sun Belt 1st round:
South Alabama 75, Arkansas St 67
Louisiana-Monroe 89, Appalachian St 80
MEAC 1st round:
South Carolina St 63, UMES 54
Coppin St 81, Morgan St 71
SWAC quarters:
Prairie View A&M 86, Alcorn St 66
Grambling 59, UAPB 52
Texas Southern 80, Southern 70
Alabama St 58, Jackson St 49
AAC conference tournament preview
This is part 29 of a 32-part series.
Standings:
Houston 16-2
Cincinnati 14-4
Temple 13-5
UCF 13-5
Memphis 11-7
Wichita St 10-8
Tulsa 8-10
South Florida 8-10
UConn 6-12
SMU 6-12
East Carolina 3-15
Tulane 0-18
Format:
All 12 teams from March 14-17. Memphis hosts. (pay attention, because that means a Q1 win is available to any of their opponents)
Matchups:
1) Houston vs. 8/9) South Florida/UConn
4) UCF vs. 5/12) Memphis/Tulane
3) Temple vs. 6/11) Wichita St/East Carolina
2) Cincinnati vs. 7/10) Tulsa/SMU
The stakes:
Can Houston get to the 1 line? Their losses are UCF and @Temple, which feels just bad enough to prevent making the 1 line. However, their home win over LSU is picking up steam. As is Utah St. Their non-con SoS is 118, which is good, but disappointing when they had put Oregon, @Okla St, and @BYU on there. Plus some cupcakes are burying them too.
I sympathize with Houston's claim to a 1 seed. But Virginia, Gonzaga, ACC tournament winner, SEC tournament winner, and Michigan St (if they win the B1G) are all sitting there too. Is there room for Houston too? Man, I dunno.
What about the 2 line? Tennessee, LSU, Michigan, TTU, Purdue....there's in the middle of that mix, somewhere. 5 Q1 wins is low, but 9 Q2 wins help offset it. I have them 11th right now....might be low. Might need to swap them and Tech. I have a feeling the call on the 2/3 line will be something I sweat right 'till the end, and I am okay with arguments on either side.
Cincy is right in the middle of the bracket. One dumb, dumb Q4 loss; 4-4 vs. Q1, 10 Q1/Q2 wins. The real hole is a lack of signature win; Ole Miss on a neutral site is probably the best, give or take UCF and @Temple. Tough to seed them too high without one of those.
UCF has played their way in, with two sig wins (@Houston, Cincy) and no real alarming metric (sure, a Q3 loss is in there, and two Q2 losses are @Mizzou and @Wichita, which isn't great). I can see dinging their seed a bit for those, but not their selection. Good news is that a road loss to Memphis won't damage them too badly, so the tournament bracket sets up reallllly well for them.
I'm not too comfortable with Temple's position....two Q1 wins over Houston and UCF at home, 8 Q1/2 wins....bad non-con SoS. Only 1 Q2 loss and 1 Q3 loss. What do they need in this tournament? I think a semifinal apperance, and I'm putting them in, but I won't feel good about it. Beating Cincy would be very advisable. But what if they lose to Wichita? I dunno, I wouldn't feel comfortable in making a call on them either way. Bad loss avoidance might be the different for them in making it, I think.
I think Memphis is an NIT team, but they have only 3 wins in Q1/2. Might need another one to be sure. Wichita St/Tulsa is an interesting debate as to who's next in line (USF's profile lags a bit behind). However, I have a feeling it might not matter and both would miss the NIT. Gotta look at it closer, though.
Standings:
Houston 16-2
Cincinnati 14-4
Temple 13-5
UCF 13-5
Memphis 11-7
Wichita St 10-8
Tulsa 8-10
South Florida 8-10
UConn 6-12
SMU 6-12
East Carolina 3-15
Tulane 0-18
Format:
All 12 teams from March 14-17. Memphis hosts. (pay attention, because that means a Q1 win is available to any of their opponents)
Matchups:
1) Houston vs. 8/9) South Florida/UConn
4) UCF vs. 5/12) Memphis/Tulane
3) Temple vs. 6/11) Wichita St/East Carolina
2) Cincinnati vs. 7/10) Tulsa/SMU
The stakes:
Can Houston get to the 1 line? Their losses are UCF and @Temple, which feels just bad enough to prevent making the 1 line. However, their home win over LSU is picking up steam. As is Utah St. Their non-con SoS is 118, which is good, but disappointing when they had put Oregon, @Okla St, and @BYU on there. Plus some cupcakes are burying them too.
I sympathize with Houston's claim to a 1 seed. But Virginia, Gonzaga, ACC tournament winner, SEC tournament winner, and Michigan St (if they win the B1G) are all sitting there too. Is there room for Houston too? Man, I dunno.
What about the 2 line? Tennessee, LSU, Michigan, TTU, Purdue....there's in the middle of that mix, somewhere. 5 Q1 wins is low, but 9 Q2 wins help offset it. I have them 11th right now....might be low. Might need to swap them and Tech. I have a feeling the call on the 2/3 line will be something I sweat right 'till the end, and I am okay with arguments on either side.
Cincy is right in the middle of the bracket. One dumb, dumb Q4 loss; 4-4 vs. Q1, 10 Q1/Q2 wins. The real hole is a lack of signature win; Ole Miss on a neutral site is probably the best, give or take UCF and @Temple. Tough to seed them too high without one of those.
UCF has played their way in, with two sig wins (@Houston, Cincy) and no real alarming metric (sure, a Q3 loss is in there, and two Q2 losses are @Mizzou and @Wichita, which isn't great). I can see dinging their seed a bit for those, but not their selection. Good news is that a road loss to Memphis won't damage them too badly, so the tournament bracket sets up reallllly well for them.
I'm not too comfortable with Temple's position....two Q1 wins over Houston and UCF at home, 8 Q1/2 wins....bad non-con SoS. Only 1 Q2 loss and 1 Q3 loss. What do they need in this tournament? I think a semifinal apperance, and I'm putting them in, but I won't feel good about it. Beating Cincy would be very advisable. But what if they lose to Wichita? I dunno, I wouldn't feel comfortable in making a call on them either way. Bad loss avoidance might be the different for them in making it, I think.
I think Memphis is an NIT team, but they have only 3 wins in Q1/2. Might need another one to be sure. Wichita St/Tulsa is an interesting debate as to who's next in line (USF's profile lags a bit behind). However, I have a feeling it might not matter and both would miss the NIT. Gotta look at it closer, though.
Pac-12 conference tournament preview
This is part 28 of a 32-part series.
Standings:
Washington 15-3
Arizona St 12-6
Utah 11-7
Oregon St 10-8
Colorado 10-8
Oregon 10-8
UCLA 9-9
USC 8-10
Arizona 8-10
Stanford 8-10
Washington St 4-14
Cal 3-15
Format:
March 13-16, Vegas
Matchups:
1) Washington vs. 8/9) USC/Arizona
4) Oregon St vs. 5/12) Colorado/Cal
3) Utah vs. 6/11) Oregon/Washington St
2) Arizona St vs. 7/10) UCLA/Stanford
The stakes:
Oy.
Washington hasn't beaten a tournament team all year. Their 2 Q1 wins are @Oregon and @Colorado. Their 6 Q2 wins are 4 conference road games, Colorado at home, and N-A&M. In a normal bubble year, this resume isn't good enough. However, I think human bias enters the picture. And a conference champ of a mid-major conference gets looked at favorably. And 8 Q1/2 wins aren't terrible. And their non-con SoS looks good, and they're 9-6 in R/N games. I dunno, instinct tells me they'll be overseeded, and fine. And while there's no good wins available in this tournament....none of the losses would really hurt too badly.
Arizona St might be better off. 3 Q1 wins, including Kansas, Miss St, and Utah St. 8 Q2 wins. And while none of the Q2 wins are sexy on their own, having a 8-2 mark against the group as a whole is definitely a positive. What definitely hurts is 4 losses in Q3/4. That mark is definitely a problem. Because if quality wins are all that matter....teams like Indiana might trump ASU. If bad loss avoidance is all that matters...everyone passes up ASU. But can the other bubble teams handle the combination of resume features that ASU has? That's the question. Big pluses, big minuses, what do they add up to?
Again, a big factor is the lack of access to quality wins in this tournament. So I would highly recommend that ASU get to the final here, to ensure safety.
Boy, I can easily see the committee making this a 1 bid league, but I think the human element takes over. If we get a UW/ASU final, it feels like both will get in. If one takes a dumb loss, we can revisit.
By the way, the NIT bubble here is a mess. Quickie profiles on everyone else:
Oregon: NET 61, beat @Wash, N-Syracuse, ASU
Colorado: NET 69, beat Oregon, ASU
Oregon St: NET 84, beat @Oregon, @Colorado, Oregon
Utah: NET 99, beat @ASU, Colorado
Arizona: NET 93, beat N-IaSt, Colorado, @OSU
UCLA, Stanford, USC probably out barring multiple upsets
I think I ordered those teams in the order I'd take them at the moment. I certainly think the Oregon St/Colorado winner would be in, and the Utah/Oregon winner would be either in (Oregon) or on the edge (Utah). OSU/CU loser on the bubble, Utah out with a loss, Oregon probably in either way.
I think. What a mess.
Standings:
Washington 15-3
Arizona St 12-6
Utah 11-7
Oregon St 10-8
Colorado 10-8
Oregon 10-8
UCLA 9-9
USC 8-10
Arizona 8-10
Stanford 8-10
Washington St 4-14
Cal 3-15
Format:
March 13-16, Vegas
Matchups:
1) Washington vs. 8/9) USC/Arizona
4) Oregon St vs. 5/12) Colorado/Cal
3) Utah vs. 6/11) Oregon/Washington St
2) Arizona St vs. 7/10) UCLA/Stanford
The stakes:
Oy.
Washington hasn't beaten a tournament team all year. Their 2 Q1 wins are @Oregon and @Colorado. Their 6 Q2 wins are 4 conference road games, Colorado at home, and N-A&M. In a normal bubble year, this resume isn't good enough. However, I think human bias enters the picture. And a conference champ of a mid-major conference gets looked at favorably. And 8 Q1/2 wins aren't terrible. And their non-con SoS looks good, and they're 9-6 in R/N games. I dunno, instinct tells me they'll be overseeded, and fine. And while there's no good wins available in this tournament....none of the losses would really hurt too badly.
Arizona St might be better off. 3 Q1 wins, including Kansas, Miss St, and Utah St. 8 Q2 wins. And while none of the Q2 wins are sexy on their own, having a 8-2 mark against the group as a whole is definitely a positive. What definitely hurts is 4 losses in Q3/4. That mark is definitely a problem. Because if quality wins are all that matter....teams like Indiana might trump ASU. If bad loss avoidance is all that matters...everyone passes up ASU. But can the other bubble teams handle the combination of resume features that ASU has? That's the question. Big pluses, big minuses, what do they add up to?
Again, a big factor is the lack of access to quality wins in this tournament. So I would highly recommend that ASU get to the final here, to ensure safety.
Boy, I can easily see the committee making this a 1 bid league, but I think the human element takes over. If we get a UW/ASU final, it feels like both will get in. If one takes a dumb loss, we can revisit.
By the way, the NIT bubble here is a mess. Quickie profiles on everyone else:
Oregon: NET 61, beat @Wash, N-Syracuse, ASU
Colorado: NET 69, beat Oregon, ASU
Oregon St: NET 84, beat @Oregon, @Colorado, Oregon
Utah: NET 99, beat @ASU, Colorado
Arizona: NET 93, beat N-IaSt, Colorado, @OSU
UCLA, Stanford, USC probably out barring multiple upsets
I think I ordered those teams in the order I'd take them at the moment. I certainly think the Oregon St/Colorado winner would be in, and the Utah/Oregon winner would be either in (Oregon) or on the edge (Utah). OSU/CU loser on the bubble, Utah out with a loss, Oregon probably in either way.
I think. What a mess.
Southland conference tournament preview
This is part 27 of a 32-part series.
Standings:
Sam Houston St 16-2
Abilene Christian 14-4
Lamar 12-6
New Orleans 12-6
SE Louisiana 12-6
Texas A&M-CC 9-9
Central Arkansas 8-10
Houston Baptist 8-10
Stephen F Austin 7-11
Nicholls 7-11
Northwestern St 6-12
McNeese St 5-13
Incarnate Word 1-17
Format:
March 13-16. Neutral site in Katy, TX. Your quirk here: only the top 8 qualify, and we have a ladder format as well.
Matchups:
1) Sam Houston St vs. 4) New Orleans vs. 5/8) Lamar/Houston Baptist
2) Abilene Christian vs. 3) SE Louisiana vs. 6/7) Texas A&M-CC/Central Arkansas
The stakes:
Pretty low. Abilene Christian NET 155; SHSU at 174, no one else over 200. Both top teams have 2 wins outside of Q4. I don't see a path off the 16 line for any team.
Of course right now, I actually have SHSU barely missing Dayton. A lot of that is the terribleness of the bottom end of D1. Right now, I have NET rankings saving ACU or SHSU from Dayton...but that could easily be flipped or not used by the committee.
Right now Southland is CNET 29....I have reps from conferences 28, 30, 31, and 32 in Dayton. So there's that.
Standings:
Sam Houston St 16-2
Abilene Christian 14-4
Lamar 12-6
New Orleans 12-6
SE Louisiana 12-6
Texas A&M-CC 9-9
Central Arkansas 8-10
Houston Baptist 8-10
Stephen F Austin 7-11
Nicholls 7-11
Northwestern St 6-12
McNeese St 5-13
Incarnate Word 1-17
Format:
March 13-16. Neutral site in Katy, TX. Your quirk here: only the top 8 qualify, and we have a ladder format as well.
Matchups:
1) Sam Houston St vs. 4) New Orleans vs. 5/8) Lamar/Houston Baptist
2) Abilene Christian vs. 3) SE Louisiana vs. 6/7) Texas A&M-CC/Central Arkansas
The stakes:
Pretty low. Abilene Christian NET 155; SHSU at 174, no one else over 200. Both top teams have 2 wins outside of Q4. I don't see a path off the 16 line for any team.
Of course right now, I actually have SHSU barely missing Dayton. A lot of that is the terribleness of the bottom end of D1. Right now, I have NET rankings saving ACU or SHSU from Dayton...but that could easily be flipped or not used by the committee.
Right now Southland is CNET 29....I have reps from conferences 28, 30, 31, and 32 in Dayton. So there's that.
CUSA conference tournament preview
This is part 26 of a 32-part series.
Standings:
Old Dominion 13-5
Southern Miss 11-7
Marshall 11-7
Western Kentucky 11-7
UTSA 11-7
FIU 10-8
UAB 10-8
Louisiana Tech 9-9
North Texas 8-10
Florida Atlantic 8-10
Rice 8-10
Middle Tennessee 8-10
Charlotte 5-13
UTEP 3-15
Format:
Oh God, I have to type out this whole mess. Ok here we go.
Remember the special format CUSA changed to? After 14 games, the teams were divided into three groups (5, 5, and 4), and played 4 more conference games within each group. They did this in order to try and create as many resume-enhancing games as possible.
So, when teams were grouped, they were locked in for seeding as well. Meaning the top 5 teams (ODU, WKU, SMU, UTSA, UAB) became the top 5 seeds, no matter what any team in the second group did. Therefore, UAB is the 5 seed despite what you see in the standings.
And in any event, it all became irrelevant because ODU ran away with the season title making the group games irrelevant. And they lost a couple times, seeing their NET plummet and the entire conference taking a hit.
Wait, it even gets more confusing. Only 12 teams go, so the bottom two teams in the bottom group don't go. Neutral site host at Frisco, Texas. But wait, there's another twist. In the first round and quarterfinals, two games are played at the same time....with the courts separated by a curtain.
What the fuck
Matchups:
1) Old Dominion vs. 8/9) Louisiana Tech/Florida Atlantic
4) UTSA vs. 5/12) UAB/Middle Tennessee
3) Southern Miss vs. 6/11) Marshall/Rice
2) Western Kentucky vs. 7/10) FIU/North Texas
The stakes:
Old Dominion gave away some seed equity at the end. On the surface, their resume looks great: won at Syracuse and home to VCU! Two signature wins! And 7 losses in Q3. Aha. There's the catch. Maybe, maybe, juuuust maybe they had an outside chance, but lost to UAB and Southern Miss in the last week, killing them off.
What also hurts is that they never got a game in conference play that qualified for Q2 status. This whole system was designed to create quality games, and ODU never got one. Southern Miss had a NET of 91...but ODU got them at home in the original schedule, and it was a home game based on the created format for the reschedule. WKU had a NET of 119...but same thing happened to them. Instead of getting a Q2 game on the road, ODU got stuck with a Q3 game at home. They did play UAB (NET 139, 4 away from Q2) and UTSA (NET 140, 5 away from Q2) twice on the road. Outch. Even a roadie at FAU only missed by 17 spots.
So the schedule ended up being one of the all-time backfires. Even worse, in Q3 games in total, ODU went just 9-7. What a way to waste those Syracuse and VCU wins. Still though, I suppose those wins will lock them in on the 13 line.
To be fair, let's look at the other 4 teams in the top group. Each ended up with at least 4 Q2 games on the schedule. 4! And ODU got 0. Wow. That is almost impossible to do. ODU had one of the most unlucky breaks in the history of conference scheduling.
Let's briefly touch on the other teams...since they all got Q2 chances, all their resumes are more or less okay (i.e., should be able to reach the 13 line). WKU in particular, won over Wisky, Arky, St Mary's...but lost 7 Q3 games (which probably takes them off the 12 line). All in all, I'd say the scheduling gambit actually worked, because it should pull the conference off the 14 line. But it was an all-time backfire for ODU specifically.
Standings:
Old Dominion 13-5
Southern Miss 11-7
Marshall 11-7
Western Kentucky 11-7
UTSA 11-7
FIU 10-8
UAB 10-8
Louisiana Tech 9-9
North Texas 8-10
Florida Atlantic 8-10
Rice 8-10
Middle Tennessee 8-10
Charlotte 5-13
UTEP 3-15
Format:
Oh God, I have to type out this whole mess. Ok here we go.
Remember the special format CUSA changed to? After 14 games, the teams were divided into three groups (5, 5, and 4), and played 4 more conference games within each group. They did this in order to try and create as many resume-enhancing games as possible.
So, when teams were grouped, they were locked in for seeding as well. Meaning the top 5 teams (ODU, WKU, SMU, UTSA, UAB) became the top 5 seeds, no matter what any team in the second group did. Therefore, UAB is the 5 seed despite what you see in the standings.
And in any event, it all became irrelevant because ODU ran away with the season title making the group games irrelevant. And they lost a couple times, seeing their NET plummet and the entire conference taking a hit.
Wait, it even gets more confusing. Only 12 teams go, so the bottom two teams in the bottom group don't go. Neutral site host at Frisco, Texas. But wait, there's another twist. In the first round and quarterfinals, two games are played at the same time....with the courts separated by a curtain.
What the fuck
Matchups:
1) Old Dominion vs. 8/9) Louisiana Tech/Florida Atlantic
4) UTSA vs. 5/12) UAB/Middle Tennessee
3) Southern Miss vs. 6/11) Marshall/Rice
2) Western Kentucky vs. 7/10) FIU/North Texas
The stakes:
Old Dominion gave away some seed equity at the end. On the surface, their resume looks great: won at Syracuse and home to VCU! Two signature wins! And 7 losses in Q3. Aha. There's the catch. Maybe, maybe, juuuust maybe they had an outside chance, but lost to UAB and Southern Miss in the last week, killing them off.
What also hurts is that they never got a game in conference play that qualified for Q2 status. This whole system was designed to create quality games, and ODU never got one. Southern Miss had a NET of 91...but ODU got them at home in the original schedule, and it was a home game based on the created format for the reschedule. WKU had a NET of 119...but same thing happened to them. Instead of getting a Q2 game on the road, ODU got stuck with a Q3 game at home. They did play UAB (NET 139, 4 away from Q2) and UTSA (NET 140, 5 away from Q2) twice on the road. Outch. Even a roadie at FAU only missed by 17 spots.
So the schedule ended up being one of the all-time backfires. Even worse, in Q3 games in total, ODU went just 9-7. What a way to waste those Syracuse and VCU wins. Still though, I suppose those wins will lock them in on the 13 line.
To be fair, let's look at the other 4 teams in the top group. Each ended up with at least 4 Q2 games on the schedule. 4! And ODU got 0. Wow. That is almost impossible to do. ODU had one of the most unlucky breaks in the history of conference scheduling.
Let's briefly touch on the other teams...since they all got Q2 chances, all their resumes are more or less okay (i.e., should be able to reach the 13 line). WKU in particular, won over Wisky, Arky, St Mary's...but lost 7 Q3 games (which probably takes them off the 12 line). All in all, I'd say the scheduling gambit actually worked, because it should pull the conference off the 14 line. But it was an all-time backfire for ODU specifically.
Monday, March 11, 2019
3/12 SEED LIST
The 1 line: Virginia, Gonzaga, Kentucky, North Carolina
The 2 line: Duke, LSU, Tennessee, Michigan St
The 3 line: Texas Tech, Michigan, Houston, Purdue
The 4 line: Florida St, Kansas, Wisconsin, Kansas St
The 5 line: Virginia Tech, Maryland, Mississippi St, Marquette
The 6 line: Auburn, Buffalo, Nevada, Villanova
The 7 line: Wofford, Iowa St, Cincinnati, Baylor
The 8 line: Louisville, VCU, Oklahoma, UCF
The 9 line: Ole Miss, Syracuse, Iowa, Washington
The 10 line: Arizona St, Minnesota, St John's, Utah St
The 11 line: Seton Hall, Ohio St, Florida, Temple
The 12 line: TCU, Clemson, North Carolina St, Indiana, Murray St, New Mexico St
The 13 line: Liberty, Old Dominion, UC Irvine, Hofstra
The 14 line: Vermont, Harvard, Georgia St, Bradley
The 15 line: Colgate, Wright St, Montana, Omaha
The 16 line: Gardner-Webb, Sam Houston St, Iona, St Francis(PA), Prairie View A&M, Norfolk St
Next 4 in:
Seton Hall
Ohio St
Florida
Temple
Last 4 in:
TCU
Clemson
North Carolina St
Indiana
Last 4 out:
Belmont
UNC Greensboro
Furman
Lipscomb
Next 4 out:
Texas
Alabama
Georgetown
Creighton
The 2 line: Duke, LSU, Tennessee, Michigan St
The 3 line: Texas Tech, Michigan, Houston, Purdue
The 4 line: Florida St, Kansas, Wisconsin, Kansas St
The 5 line: Virginia Tech, Maryland, Mississippi St, Marquette
The 6 line: Auburn, Buffalo, Nevada, Villanova
The 7 line: Wofford, Iowa St, Cincinnati, Baylor
The 8 line: Louisville, VCU, Oklahoma, UCF
The 9 line: Ole Miss, Syracuse, Iowa, Washington
The 10 line: Arizona St, Minnesota, St John's, Utah St
The 11 line: Seton Hall, Ohio St, Florida, Temple
The 12 line: TCU, Clemson, North Carolina St, Indiana, Murray St, New Mexico St
The 13 line: Liberty, Old Dominion, UC Irvine, Hofstra
The 14 line: Vermont, Harvard, Georgia St, Bradley
The 15 line: Colgate, Wright St, Montana, Omaha
The 16 line: Gardner-Webb, Sam Houston St, Iona, St Francis(PA), Prairie View A&M, Norfolk St
Next 4 in:
Seton Hall
Ohio St
Florida
Temple
Last 4 in:
TCU
Clemson
North Carolina St
Indiana
Last 4 out:
Belmont
UNC Greensboro
Furman
Lipscomb
Next 4 out:
Texas
Alabama
Georgetown
Creighton
3/11 recap
WCC semis:
Gonzaga 100, Pepperdine 74
St Mary's 69, San Diego 62 - still, things have broken very badly for St Mary's. No access to a quality win vs. BYU, plus all these lower majors creeping onto the bubble, likely removes all doubt that there's no at-large in play here
SoCon final:
Wofford 70, UNC Greensboro 58 - hoo boy. UNCG. Furman. Belmont. Lipscomb. This is gonna be a fun week
MAAC final:
Iona 81, Monmouth 60
CAA semis:
Hofstra 78, Delaware 74 (OT)
Northeastern 70, Charleston 67 - NIT play-in game?
Summit semis:
North Dakota St 76, Western Illinois 73
Omaha 61, IPFW 60
Horizon semis:
Wright St 66, Green Bay 54
Northern Kentucky 64, Oakland 63
MAC 1st round:
Central Michigan 81, Western Michigan 67
Ball St 61, Eastern Michigan 43
Akron 80, Miami(OH) 51
Northern Illinois 80, Ohio 61
MEAC 1st round:
Delaware St 71, Savannah St 67
Gonzaga 100, Pepperdine 74
St Mary's 69, San Diego 62 - still, things have broken very badly for St Mary's. No access to a quality win vs. BYU, plus all these lower majors creeping onto the bubble, likely removes all doubt that there's no at-large in play here
SoCon final:
Wofford 70, UNC Greensboro 58 - hoo boy. UNCG. Furman. Belmont. Lipscomb. This is gonna be a fun week
MAAC final:
Iona 81, Monmouth 60
CAA semis:
Hofstra 78, Delaware 74 (OT)
Northeastern 70, Charleston 67 - NIT play-in game?
Summit semis:
North Dakota St 76, Western Illinois 73
Omaha 61, IPFW 60
Horizon semis:
Wright St 66, Green Bay 54
Northern Kentucky 64, Oakland 63
MAC 1st round:
Central Michigan 81, Western Michigan 67
Ball St 61, Eastern Michigan 43
Akron 80, Miami(OH) 51
Northern Illinois 80, Ohio 61
MEAC 1st round:
Delaware St 71, Savannah St 67
A-10 conference tournament preview
This is part 25 of a 32-part series.
Standings:
VCU 16-2
Davidson 14-4
Dayton 13-5
St Bonaventure 12-6
George Mason 11-7
St Louis 10-8
Duquesne 10-8
Rhode Island 9-9
La Salle 8-10
St Joseph's 6-12
Richmond 6-12
George Washington 4-14
UMass 4-14
Fordham 3-15
Format:
March 13-17. Brooklyn is your neutral site host.
Matchups:
1) VCU vs. 8/9) Rhode Island/LaSalle
4) St Bonaventure vs. 5) George Mason vs. 12/13) George Washington/UMass
3) Dayton vs. 6) St Louis vs. 11/14) Richmond/Fordham
2) Davidson vs. 7/10) Duquesne/St Joseph's
The stakes:
What a terrible year for the A-10. Down to 10th in CNET. Only 3 Top 100 teams in NET. Usually the hallmark of the A-10 is producing a bunch of decent teams, keeping the league's at-large hopes afloat by making sure quality games were numerous in conference play. Didn't happen this year.
VCU is the one team streaking towards the lockbox. Non-con SoS of 2 is always sexy. 6-4 vs. the top 2 quads; offsetting 2 Q3 losses. @Texas, N-Temple, and sweeping Dayton aren't the sexiest wins, but they're probably enough in this bubble environment. 9-4 R/N record helps too. It won't be a great seed, but I can't see this profile missing, I think. At the very least, I think they compare favorably to Belmont, the SoCon teams, etc., in terms of overall profile. Still, there's always the chance. I can see a coherent argument against them relating to the lack of truly signature win, but I don't think the committee will make it.
Davidson probably isn't in play. 5 Q2 wins are their best...but VCU is the only team even near the tournament bubble among those 5. 4 Q3 losses (although they're all roadies, and they did go 7-5 on the road). Among teams with a lack of quality wins, there's better resumes than Davidson's out there. And winning out to the final probably won't enhance it enough.
Dayton's even worse off...their win over Butler has evaporated into nothing. Just 3 wins inside Q1/2. 8 wins in the top 3 quads. Just can't realistically do it.
Another sign the league is down? No one outside the top 3 is even particularly close to the NIT bubble.
Standings:
VCU 16-2
Davidson 14-4
Dayton 13-5
St Bonaventure 12-6
George Mason 11-7
St Louis 10-8
Duquesne 10-8
Rhode Island 9-9
La Salle 8-10
St Joseph's 6-12
Richmond 6-12
George Washington 4-14
UMass 4-14
Fordham 3-15
Format:
March 13-17. Brooklyn is your neutral site host.
Matchups:
1) VCU vs. 8/9) Rhode Island/LaSalle
4) St Bonaventure vs. 5) George Mason vs. 12/13) George Washington/UMass
3) Dayton vs. 6) St Louis vs. 11/14) Richmond/Fordham
2) Davidson vs. 7/10) Duquesne/St Joseph's
The stakes:
What a terrible year for the A-10. Down to 10th in CNET. Only 3 Top 100 teams in NET. Usually the hallmark of the A-10 is producing a bunch of decent teams, keeping the league's at-large hopes afloat by making sure quality games were numerous in conference play. Didn't happen this year.
VCU is the one team streaking towards the lockbox. Non-con SoS of 2 is always sexy. 6-4 vs. the top 2 quads; offsetting 2 Q3 losses. @Texas, N-Temple, and sweeping Dayton aren't the sexiest wins, but they're probably enough in this bubble environment. 9-4 R/N record helps too. It won't be a great seed, but I can't see this profile missing, I think. At the very least, I think they compare favorably to Belmont, the SoCon teams, etc., in terms of overall profile. Still, there's always the chance. I can see a coherent argument against them relating to the lack of truly signature win, but I don't think the committee will make it.
Davidson probably isn't in play. 5 Q2 wins are their best...but VCU is the only team even near the tournament bubble among those 5. 4 Q3 losses (although they're all roadies, and they did go 7-5 on the road). Among teams with a lack of quality wins, there's better resumes than Davidson's out there. And winning out to the final probably won't enhance it enough.
Dayton's even worse off...their win over Butler has evaporated into nothing. Just 3 wins inside Q1/2. 8 wins in the top 3 quads. Just can't realistically do it.
Another sign the league is down? No one outside the top 3 is even particularly close to the NIT bubble.
SEC conference tournament preview
This is part 24 of a 32-part series.
Standings:
LSU 16-2
Kentucky 15-3
Tennessee 15-3
South Carolina 11-7
Auburn 11-7
Mississippi St 10-8
Ole Miss 10-8
Florida 9-9
Arkansas 8-10
Alabama 8-10
Texas A&M 6-12
Missouri 5-13
Georgia 2-16
Vanderbilt 0-18
Format:
March 13-17. Your neutral site is Nashville.
Matchups:
1) LSU vs. 8/9) Florida/Arkansas
4) South Carolina vs. 5) Auburn vs. 12/13) Missouri/Georgia
3) Tennessee vs. 6) Mississippi St vs. 11/14) Texas A&M/Vanderbilt
2) Kentucky vs. 7/10) Ole Miss/Alabama
The stakes:
I don't think Kentucky, Tennessee, or LSU is in danger of falling below the 2 line. Well, probably. I'll certainly listen to arguments against Tennessee if they lose before reaching Kentucky in the bracket. Or LSU, but I'm thinking UT is more vulnerable right now.
On the other hand, I think I'm willing to give a 1 seed to the conference champ. It might be a litttttle tougher for LSU than for UK or UT to get there, but I think when you work out all the permutations, I'm ok with this generic statement.
It's worth noting LSU only got UK and UT once...and can only get one of them in this tourney. So they're not quite as heavy on marquee wins as the other 1 seed contenders, but I think that'll be overlooked if they win this.
Kentucky is the team with the shiniest non-con results...UT did beat Gonzaga though. UT's non-con SoS lag behind the other 2. In the end, they're all close enough to make me apply the blanket statement. Conference title means 1 line.
Mississippi St is in an awkward spot in the bracket...can probably peak at 3 if they win the whole thing (because that could mean beating all 3 biggies), but more likely they settle in on the 5/6 borderline.
Auburn is safely in...marginal 3-7 rec vs. Q1. And a real bad break, drawing South Carolina's quadrant in this tournament. They won't have access to a quality win until the semifinals. Anywhere from the 6 line to 9 line for them seems reasonable.
Ols Miss might be a tricky team to seed. 10 Q1 losses, but only 1 loss outside of that. On the other end, Auburn 2x, Baylor, MSU as your best win, screams middle of the bracket at best. They probably have to be in no matter what (Alabama represents a loss that won't do too much profile damage), but I'm not excited about them.
2 bubble teams of record here.
Florida is 1. 14 losses; 11 Q1 losses. Home losses to UGa and SCar are Q3 losses. That's pretty meh. But there's that road win at LSU, propping everything up. 5-6 road record is also useful. However, @LSU and Ole Miss represent their only wins over probable tourney teams? That's dicey. Lose to Arky and you're done. If you lose to LSU, that's no harm to you....but that assumes that you don't need any more help to get in. True borderline team.
Alabama is a bit dicier. 14 losses, but 5 are Q2/3. Kentucky is the signature win....beat the Mississippi schools at home as well plus Murray St. Probably behind Florida in the pecking order. Probably has to beat Ole Miss. If they do, they're still a true borderline team, IMO.
I can't see a case for South Carolina despite 11 SEC wins; they needed a true elite win and never got it. And I'll keep half an eye on Arkansas, who got a favorable draw. A run to the finals could include Florida/LSU/Auburn; we can talk if that happens.
Standings:
LSU 16-2
Kentucky 15-3
Tennessee 15-3
South Carolina 11-7
Auburn 11-7
Mississippi St 10-8
Ole Miss 10-8
Florida 9-9
Arkansas 8-10
Alabama 8-10
Texas A&M 6-12
Missouri 5-13
Georgia 2-16
Vanderbilt 0-18
Format:
March 13-17. Your neutral site is Nashville.
Matchups:
1) LSU vs. 8/9) Florida/Arkansas
4) South Carolina vs. 5) Auburn vs. 12/13) Missouri/Georgia
3) Tennessee vs. 6) Mississippi St vs. 11/14) Texas A&M/Vanderbilt
2) Kentucky vs. 7/10) Ole Miss/Alabama
The stakes:
I don't think Kentucky, Tennessee, or LSU is in danger of falling below the 2 line. Well, probably. I'll certainly listen to arguments against Tennessee if they lose before reaching Kentucky in the bracket. Or LSU, but I'm thinking UT is more vulnerable right now.
On the other hand, I think I'm willing to give a 1 seed to the conference champ. It might be a litttttle tougher for LSU than for UK or UT to get there, but I think when you work out all the permutations, I'm ok with this generic statement.
It's worth noting LSU only got UK and UT once...and can only get one of them in this tourney. So they're not quite as heavy on marquee wins as the other 1 seed contenders, but I think that'll be overlooked if they win this.
Kentucky is the team with the shiniest non-con results...UT did beat Gonzaga though. UT's non-con SoS lag behind the other 2. In the end, they're all close enough to make me apply the blanket statement. Conference title means 1 line.
Mississippi St is in an awkward spot in the bracket...can probably peak at 3 if they win the whole thing (because that could mean beating all 3 biggies), but more likely they settle in on the 5/6 borderline.
Auburn is safely in...marginal 3-7 rec vs. Q1. And a real bad break, drawing South Carolina's quadrant in this tournament. They won't have access to a quality win until the semifinals. Anywhere from the 6 line to 9 line for them seems reasonable.
Ols Miss might be a tricky team to seed. 10 Q1 losses, but only 1 loss outside of that. On the other end, Auburn 2x, Baylor, MSU as your best win, screams middle of the bracket at best. They probably have to be in no matter what (Alabama represents a loss that won't do too much profile damage), but I'm not excited about them.
2 bubble teams of record here.
Florida is 1. 14 losses; 11 Q1 losses. Home losses to UGa and SCar are Q3 losses. That's pretty meh. But there's that road win at LSU, propping everything up. 5-6 road record is also useful. However, @LSU and Ole Miss represent their only wins over probable tourney teams? That's dicey. Lose to Arky and you're done. If you lose to LSU, that's no harm to you....but that assumes that you don't need any more help to get in. True borderline team.
Alabama is a bit dicier. 14 losses, but 5 are Q2/3. Kentucky is the signature win....beat the Mississippi schools at home as well plus Murray St. Probably behind Florida in the pecking order. Probably has to beat Ole Miss. If they do, they're still a true borderline team, IMO.
I can't see a case for South Carolina despite 11 SEC wins; they needed a true elite win and never got it. And I'll keep half an eye on Arkansas, who got a favorable draw. A run to the finals could include Florida/LSU/Auburn; we can talk if that happens.
Big 10 conference tournament preview
This is part 23 of a 32-part series.
Standings:
Michigan St 16-4
Purdue 16-4
Michigan 15-5
Wisconsin 14-6
Maryland 13-7
Iowa 10-10
Minnesota 9-11
Ohio St 8-12
Indiana St 8-12
Penn St 7-13
Illinois 7-13
Rutgers 7-13
Nebraska 6-14
Northwestern 4-16
Format:
March 13-17 in Chicago. Double bye for the top 4 seeds, as is now customary.
Matchups:
1) Michigan St vs. 8/9) Ohio St/Indiana
4) Wisconsin vs. 5) Maryland vs. 12/13) Rutgers/Nebraska
3) Michigan vs. 6) Iowa vs. 11/14) Illinois/Northwestern
2) Purdue vs. 7/10) Minnesota/Penn St
The stakes:
I don't think anyone has the juice to get to the 1 line, so Michigan St, Michigan, and Purdue are all playing for positioning. It's quite probably that those 3 are playing for 2 spots in a Des Moines regional, with the loser at risk of being sent out west.
If a team has a shot at the 1 line, it's Michigan St with their 11 Q1 wins. I fear with their middling non-con SoS and results, that they won't be able to get there. Their Q1 wins are built mostly on the foundation of conference games. In the end, someone's gotta win the SEC and ACC, and there aren't many permutations that allow MSU a chance to get to the 1 line.
I favor Michigan over Purdue a touch...all their losses are in Q1, and they're 8-5 in Q1 games, so they've mostly kept a clean sheet. They're at the top of my 3 line, with a reasonable chance of the 2 line if they get to the finals.
Purdue is merely .500 in Q1 games. That's good enough for the 3 line with no risk of dropping down, IMO. Can they get a 2? Might need to win this, and even then it might be difficult to knock Michigan St (or someone else) off the 2 line.
Wisconsin and Maryland are the next tier to me. Wisky is 9-7 in Q1 games, solid SoS, only one truly dumb loss (WKU). The 3 line is really tight, so I'm not sure they can win their way that high, but they should be a 5 at worst. Maryland feels just a half-step behind Wisky with just a couple less Q1 wins and 1 dumb loss of their own (Illinois). They (should) play each other...the winner might get the 4 line, and the loser the 5 line (with the caveat that Wisky may be a 4 anyways).
Iowa has thrown away a significant number of seed lines. And all of a sudden, their wins over tournament teams look like this: Michigan, Iowa St, swept Indiana, Ohio St. They have a Q3 loss. Their non-con SoS is around 300. Um, this is usually the profile of a team who gets bounced in a surprise exclusion. Only 4 Q1 wins. Um, I get nervous the more and more I look at it. They may be well advised to get to the Michigan game in the bracket, at least. I'd much like to win that one just to be sure. I'd monitor this situation very closely.
Now, the true bubble teams.
Minnesota does have 2 legitimate business wins on the schedule with Purdue and @Wisky. 3 bad losses that show up as Q2 (Rutgers, Illinois, BC). 2-9 true road record, which is a real worry. Losing to Penn St would be real trouble. Just get to Purdue, and you might, maybe, be safe.
Ohio St lacks the impact wins (outside of @Cincy), but their other Q1 wins are pedestrian (by Q1 standards). A little better on the road (5-7), and one dumb Q3 loss to Illinois. I file them right behind Minnesota, thanks to one less signature win. Their game with Indiana might be a winner-in, loser-out game.
And now, Indiana. 6 Q1 wins, and there's some bigguns in there (swept MSU, Wisky, Louisville, Marquette). Unlike other teams in this range, Indiana's Q1 wins are legitimate business. Their non-con SoS is somehow 207 (their cupcakes hurt them bad), but they at least avoided the bad loss (unless NW and Rutgers count). Their big flaw is 8-14 vs. the top 2 quadrants. They definitely need to beat OSU, and maybe Michigan St again, to get in.
So it's pretty simple, the more I look at it. OSU/Indiana will decide a lot, and I would feel good about bouncing the loser out of the tournament. Minnesota gets the luck of the draw; they theoretically should handle Penn St and avoid a loss to a non-elite team, something OSU and IU can't do.
Standings:
Michigan St 16-4
Purdue 16-4
Michigan 15-5
Wisconsin 14-6
Maryland 13-7
Iowa 10-10
Minnesota 9-11
Ohio St 8-12
Indiana St 8-12
Penn St 7-13
Illinois 7-13
Rutgers 7-13
Nebraska 6-14
Northwestern 4-16
Format:
March 13-17 in Chicago. Double bye for the top 4 seeds, as is now customary.
Matchups:
1) Michigan St vs. 8/9) Ohio St/Indiana
4) Wisconsin vs. 5) Maryland vs. 12/13) Rutgers/Nebraska
3) Michigan vs. 6) Iowa vs. 11/14) Illinois/Northwestern
2) Purdue vs. 7/10) Minnesota/Penn St
The stakes:
I don't think anyone has the juice to get to the 1 line, so Michigan St, Michigan, and Purdue are all playing for positioning. It's quite probably that those 3 are playing for 2 spots in a Des Moines regional, with the loser at risk of being sent out west.
If a team has a shot at the 1 line, it's Michigan St with their 11 Q1 wins. I fear with their middling non-con SoS and results, that they won't be able to get there. Their Q1 wins are built mostly on the foundation of conference games. In the end, someone's gotta win the SEC and ACC, and there aren't many permutations that allow MSU a chance to get to the 1 line.
I favor Michigan over Purdue a touch...all their losses are in Q1, and they're 8-5 in Q1 games, so they've mostly kept a clean sheet. They're at the top of my 3 line, with a reasonable chance of the 2 line if they get to the finals.
Purdue is merely .500 in Q1 games. That's good enough for the 3 line with no risk of dropping down, IMO. Can they get a 2? Might need to win this, and even then it might be difficult to knock Michigan St (or someone else) off the 2 line.
Wisconsin and Maryland are the next tier to me. Wisky is 9-7 in Q1 games, solid SoS, only one truly dumb loss (WKU). The 3 line is really tight, so I'm not sure they can win their way that high, but they should be a 5 at worst. Maryland feels just a half-step behind Wisky with just a couple less Q1 wins and 1 dumb loss of their own (Illinois). They (should) play each other...the winner might get the 4 line, and the loser the 5 line (with the caveat that Wisky may be a 4 anyways).
Iowa has thrown away a significant number of seed lines. And all of a sudden, their wins over tournament teams look like this: Michigan, Iowa St, swept Indiana, Ohio St. They have a Q3 loss. Their non-con SoS is around 300. Um, this is usually the profile of a team who gets bounced in a surprise exclusion. Only 4 Q1 wins. Um, I get nervous the more and more I look at it. They may be well advised to get to the Michigan game in the bracket, at least. I'd much like to win that one just to be sure. I'd monitor this situation very closely.
Now, the true bubble teams.
Minnesota does have 2 legitimate business wins on the schedule with Purdue and @Wisky. 3 bad losses that show up as Q2 (Rutgers, Illinois, BC). 2-9 true road record, which is a real worry. Losing to Penn St would be real trouble. Just get to Purdue, and you might, maybe, be safe.
Ohio St lacks the impact wins (outside of @Cincy), but their other Q1 wins are pedestrian (by Q1 standards). A little better on the road (5-7), and one dumb Q3 loss to Illinois. I file them right behind Minnesota, thanks to one less signature win. Their game with Indiana might be a winner-in, loser-out game.
And now, Indiana. 6 Q1 wins, and there's some bigguns in there (swept MSU, Wisky, Louisville, Marquette). Unlike other teams in this range, Indiana's Q1 wins are legitimate business. Their non-con SoS is somehow 207 (their cupcakes hurt them bad), but they at least avoided the bad loss (unless NW and Rutgers count). Their big flaw is 8-14 vs. the top 2 quadrants. They definitely need to beat OSU, and maybe Michigan St again, to get in.
So it's pretty simple, the more I look at it. OSU/Indiana will decide a lot, and I would feel good about bouncing the loser out of the tournament. Minnesota gets the luck of the draw; they theoretically should handle Penn St and avoid a loss to a non-elite team, something OSU and IU can't do.
Big Sky conference tournament preview
This is part 22 of a 32-part series.
Standings:
Montana 16-4
Northern Colorado 15-5
Eastern Washington 12-8
Weber St 11-9
Portland St 11-9
Montana St 11-9
Southern Utah 9-11
Northern Arizona 8-12
Sacramento St 8-12
Idaho St 7-13
Idaho 2-18
Format:
March 13-16, neutral site in Boise. Straight-up bracket with no frills.
Matchups:
1) Montana vs. 8/9) Northern Arizona/Sacramento St
4) Weber St vs. 5) Portland St
3) Eastern Washington vs. 6/11) Montana St/Idaho
2) Northern Colorado vs. 7/10) Southern Utah/Idaho St
The stakes:
Honestly pretty low. A quick glance at the NET shows Montana at 123, UNC and Weber St around 170, and everyone else well over 250. Weber and UNC have modest (but not great) chances to avoid the 16 line; Montana probably will avoid the 16 line; everyone else would be doomed for Dayton.
Montana's the one team that can reasonably escape to even the 14 line; but their only Q1/2 win is @South Dakota St (which is still a nice win, though. 4 Q4 losses, kinda offset by a non-con SoS in the 50s (so their other losses are reasonable, more or less). They had to hit the road hard in the non-con to get the good games, so their lack of non-con results is at least understandable. I've got 'em at 15 with a reasonable chance to get to 14; I have no issue with anyone who wants to put them on the 14 already.
The conference's CNET is 27, so not a lot of helping each other in this conference. Hence why everyone but Montana is more or less headed to the 16 line.
Standings:
Montana 16-4
Northern Colorado 15-5
Eastern Washington 12-8
Weber St 11-9
Portland St 11-9
Montana St 11-9
Southern Utah 9-11
Northern Arizona 8-12
Sacramento St 8-12
Idaho St 7-13
Idaho 2-18
Format:
March 13-16, neutral site in Boise. Straight-up bracket with no frills.
Matchups:
1) Montana vs. 8/9) Northern Arizona/Sacramento St
4) Weber St vs. 5) Portland St
3) Eastern Washington vs. 6/11) Montana St/Idaho
2) Northern Colorado vs. 7/10) Southern Utah/Idaho St
The stakes:
Honestly pretty low. A quick glance at the NET shows Montana at 123, UNC and Weber St around 170, and everyone else well over 250. Weber and UNC have modest (but not great) chances to avoid the 16 line; Montana probably will avoid the 16 line; everyone else would be doomed for Dayton.
Montana's the one team that can reasonably escape to even the 14 line; but their only Q1/2 win is @South Dakota St (which is still a nice win, though. 4 Q4 losses, kinda offset by a non-con SoS in the 50s (so their other losses are reasonable, more or less). They had to hit the road hard in the non-con to get the good games, so their lack of non-con results is at least understandable. I've got 'em at 15 with a reasonable chance to get to 14; I have no issue with anyone who wants to put them on the 14 already.
The conference's CNET is 27, so not a lot of helping each other in this conference. Hence why everyone but Montana is more or less headed to the 16 line.
Sunday, March 10, 2019
3/11 BRACKET
Hey, perfectly balanced brackets! I wasn't even trying.
EAST 34
@Columbus
1) Virginia vs. 16) St Francis(PA)/Prairie View A&M
8) VCU vs. 9) Iowa
@San Jose
4) Kansas St vs. 13) Old Dominion
5) Virginia Tech vs. 12) New Mexico St
@Des Moines
3) Michigan vs. 14) Vermont
6) Villanova vs. 11) Florida
@Jacksonville
2) Tennessee vs. 15) Montana
7) Wofford vs. 10) St John's
MIDWEST 34
@Columbia
1) North Carolina vs. 16) Gardner-Webb
8) UCF vs. 9) Ole Miss
@San Jose
4) Wisconsin vs. 13) Hofstra
5) Mississippi St vs. 12) TCU/North Carolina St
@Tulsa
3) Texas Tech vs. 14) Georgia St
6) Nevada vs. 11) Ohio St
@Jacksonville
2) LSU vs. 15) Omaha
7) Baylor vs. 10) Utah St
SOUTH 34
@Columbus
1) Kentucky vs. 16) Sam Houston St
8) Oklahoma vs. 9) Syracuse
@Salt Lake City
4) Kansas vs. 13) UC Irvine
5) Marquette vs. 12) Clemson/Indiana
@Hartford
3) Purdue vs. 14) Bradley
6) Buffalo vs. 11) Seton Hall
@Columbia
2) Duke vs. 15) Colgate
7) Cincinnati vs. 10) Minnesota
WEST 34
@Salt Lake City
1) Gonzaga vs. 16) Iona/Norfolk St
8) Louisville vs. 9) Washington
@Hartford
4) Florida St vs. 13) Liberty
5) Maryland vs. 12) Murray St
@Tulsa
3) Houston vs. 14) Harvard
6) Auburn vs. 11) Temple
@Des Moines
2) Michigan St vs. 15) Wright St
7) Iowa St vs. 10) Arizona St
EAST 34
@Columbus
1) Virginia vs. 16) St Francis(PA)/Prairie View A&M
8) VCU vs. 9) Iowa
@San Jose
4) Kansas St vs. 13) Old Dominion
5) Virginia Tech vs. 12) New Mexico St
@Des Moines
3) Michigan vs. 14) Vermont
6) Villanova vs. 11) Florida
@Jacksonville
2) Tennessee vs. 15) Montana
7) Wofford vs. 10) St John's
MIDWEST 34
@Columbia
1) North Carolina vs. 16) Gardner-Webb
8) UCF vs. 9) Ole Miss
@San Jose
4) Wisconsin vs. 13) Hofstra
5) Mississippi St vs. 12) TCU/North Carolina St
@Tulsa
3) Texas Tech vs. 14) Georgia St
6) Nevada vs. 11) Ohio St
@Jacksonville
2) LSU vs. 15) Omaha
7) Baylor vs. 10) Utah St
SOUTH 34
@Columbus
1) Kentucky vs. 16) Sam Houston St
8) Oklahoma vs. 9) Syracuse
@Salt Lake City
4) Kansas vs. 13) UC Irvine
5) Marquette vs. 12) Clemson/Indiana
@Hartford
3) Purdue vs. 14) Bradley
6) Buffalo vs. 11) Seton Hall
@Columbia
2) Duke vs. 15) Colgate
7) Cincinnati vs. 10) Minnesota
WEST 34
@Salt Lake City
1) Gonzaga vs. 16) Iona/Norfolk St
8) Louisville vs. 9) Washington
@Hartford
4) Florida St vs. 13) Liberty
5) Maryland vs. 12) Murray St
@Tulsa
3) Houston vs. 14) Harvard
6) Auburn vs. 11) Temple
@Des Moines
2) Michigan St vs. 15) Wright St
7) Iowa St vs. 10) Arizona St
3/11 SEED LIST
The 1 line: Virginia, Gonzaga, Kentucky, North Carolina
The 2 line: Duke, LSU, Tennessee, Michigan St
The 3 line: Texas Tech, Michigan, Houston, Purdue
The 4 line: Florida St, Kansas, Wisconsin, Kansas St
The 5 line: Virginia Tech, Maryland, Mississippi St, Marquette
The 6 line: Auburn, Buffalo, Nevada, Villanova
The 7 line: Iowa St, Cincinnati, Wofford, Baylor
The 8 line: Louisville, VCU, Oklahoma, UCF
The 9 line: Ole Miss, Syracuse, Iowa, Washington
The 10 line: Arizona St, Minnesota, St John's, Utah St
The 11 line: Seton Hall, Ohio St, Florida, Temple
The 12 line: TCU, Clemson, North Carolina St, Indiana, Murray St, New Mexico St
The 13 line: Liberty, Old Dominion, UC Irvine, Hofstra
The 14 line: Vermont, Harvard, Georgia St, Bradley
The 15 line: Colgate, Wright St, Montana, Omaha
The 16 line: Gardner-Webb, Sam Houston St, Iona, St Francis(PA), Prairie View A&M, Norfolk St
Next 4 in:
Seton Hall
Ohio St
Florida
Temple
Last 4 in:
TCU
Clemson
North Carolina St
Indiana
Last 4 out:
Belmont
Lipscomb
UNC Greensboro
Furman
Next 4 out:
Alabama
Georgetown
Creighton
Xavier
The 2 line: Duke, LSU, Tennessee, Michigan St
The 3 line: Texas Tech, Michigan, Houston, Purdue
The 4 line: Florida St, Kansas, Wisconsin, Kansas St
The 5 line: Virginia Tech, Maryland, Mississippi St, Marquette
The 6 line: Auburn, Buffalo, Nevada, Villanova
The 7 line: Iowa St, Cincinnati, Wofford, Baylor
The 8 line: Louisville, VCU, Oklahoma, UCF
The 9 line: Ole Miss, Syracuse, Iowa, Washington
The 10 line: Arizona St, Minnesota, St John's, Utah St
The 11 line: Seton Hall, Ohio St, Florida, Temple
The 12 line: TCU, Clemson, North Carolina St, Indiana, Murray St, New Mexico St
The 13 line: Liberty, Old Dominion, UC Irvine, Hofstra
The 14 line: Vermont, Harvard, Georgia St, Bradley
The 15 line: Colgate, Wright St, Montana, Omaha
The 16 line: Gardner-Webb, Sam Houston St, Iona, St Francis(PA), Prairie View A&M, Norfolk St
Next 4 in:
Seton Hall
Ohio St
Florida
Temple
Last 4 in:
TCU
Clemson
North Carolina St
Indiana
Last 4 out:
Belmont
Lipscomb
UNC Greensboro
Furman
Next 4 out:
Alabama
Georgetown
Creighton
Xavier
3/10 recap
Houston 85, @Cincinnati 69 - this will reinvigorate the 2 line discussion for Houston
Wisconsin 73, @Ohio St 67 (OT)
@Indiana 89, Rutgers 73 - the worst Indiana can post is now 17-15. That might matter for optics reasons
@Nebraska 93, Iowa 91 (OT) - good lord what is Iowa doing
A-Fun finals:
Liberty 74, Lipscomb 68 - welp, here we go. Lipscomb on the at-large board, now right behind Belmont. 7 losses might be too many for an A-Sun team, looking at the resume from a macro point of view
SoCon semis:
Wofford 81, East Tennessee St 72
UNC Greensboro 66, Furman 62 - man. I'm not sure this result doesn't mean that both teams will fall just short of an at-large bid. It doesn't help that Belmont and Lipscomb are already in the middle of this conversation, making me wonder if mid-major at large bids will be allocated naturally by the committee. But on the other hand, this is the script if you want a 3-bid SoCon
Big South finals:
Gardner-Webb 76, Radford 65 - that'll cost the conference a seed line, in all likelihood
MVC finals:
Bradley 57, Northern Iowa 54
Patriot semis:
Colgate 80, Navy 70
Bucknell 97, Lehigh 75 - form holds in the Patriot
CAA quarters:
Hofstra 76, James Madison 67
Delaware 85, William & Mary 79
Northeastern 80, UNC Wilmington 59
Charleston 73, Drexel 61
MAAC semis:
Iona 73, Siena 57
Monmouth 73, Canisius 59
Summit quarters:
North Dakota St 86, Oral Roberts 73
IPFW 96, South Dakota 70
Wisconsin 73, @Ohio St 67 (OT)
@Indiana 89, Rutgers 73 - the worst Indiana can post is now 17-15. That might matter for optics reasons
@Nebraska 93, Iowa 91 (OT) - good lord what is Iowa doing
A-Fun finals:
Liberty 74, Lipscomb 68 - welp, here we go. Lipscomb on the at-large board, now right behind Belmont. 7 losses might be too many for an A-Sun team, looking at the resume from a macro point of view
SoCon semis:
Wofford 81, East Tennessee St 72
UNC Greensboro 66, Furman 62 - man. I'm not sure this result doesn't mean that both teams will fall just short of an at-large bid. It doesn't help that Belmont and Lipscomb are already in the middle of this conversation, making me wonder if mid-major at large bids will be allocated naturally by the committee. But on the other hand, this is the script if you want a 3-bid SoCon
Big South finals:
Gardner-Webb 76, Radford 65 - that'll cost the conference a seed line, in all likelihood
MVC finals:
Bradley 57, Northern Iowa 54
Patriot semis:
Colgate 80, Navy 70
Bucknell 97, Lehigh 75 - form holds in the Patriot
CAA quarters:
Hofstra 76, James Madison 67
Delaware 85, William & Mary 79
Northeastern 80, UNC Wilmington 59
Charleston 73, Drexel 61
MAAC semis:
Iona 73, Siena 57
Monmouth 73, Canisius 59
Summit quarters:
North Dakota St 86, Oral Roberts 73
IPFW 96, South Dakota 70
Big East conference tournament preview
This is part 21 of a 32-part series.
Standings:
Villanova 13-5
Marquette 12-6
Seton Hall 9-9
Xavier 9-9
Creighton 9-9
Georgetown 9-9
St John's 8-10
Providence 7-11
Butler 7-11
DePaul 7-11
Good God. What the hell, Big East.
Format:
March 13-16. MSG. You know the drill.
Matchups:
1) Villanova vs. 8/9) Providence/Butler
4) Xavier vs. 5) Creighton
3) Seton Hall vs. 6) Georgetown
2) Marquette vs. 7/10) St John's/DePaul
The stakes:
What a clusterfark of a bubble situation. Ok, let's deal with Villanova and Marquette first.
Nova has a strong SoS, beat FSU and Temple in the non-con, and their once-terrible loss to Furman is merely a flesh wound now. 15 combined wins in Q1/2 (Big East rankings!). Lacking the high end results to get anywhere near the 3 line, but 4? It's possible. But not probable.
Marquette has more marquee non-con results (Wisky, Buffalo, Louisville, K-State), with more terrible form as of late. Still, 15 Q1/2 wins too, and an overall profile that seems better than Villanova. But if current form matters, they slide slightly. I give them the same outlook as Nova.
Ok, these other 8 clowns. Let's just list all their goods and bads. Because I think all 8 are in bubble play. (these resumes are short, but we need to make them bite size for the sake of brevity)
St John's: non-con SoS 214, 5-6 vs. Q1, 5-3 vs. Q2
swing games: beat Nova, swept Marquette, beat N-VCU, swept by DePaul, beat at home by G'town/Provi/X
Seton Hall: non-con SoS 100, 6-7 vs. Q1, 6-3 vs. Q2
swing games: beat N-Kentucky, Maryland, Nova, Marq, swept by DePaul, lost to St Louis and Xavier at home
Georgetown: non-con SoS 252, 5-6 vs. Q1, 6-5 vs. Q2
swing games: beat Nova, @Marq, lost to SMU, N-LMU, @DePaul
Xavier: non-con SoS 167, 4-8 vs. Q1, 4-4 vs. Q2
swing games: beat Nova, lost to DePaul, N-SDSU, @Mizzou
Creighton: non-con SoS 28, 3-10 vs. Q1, 6-3 vs. Q2
swing games: beat @Marq, lost to @X, @Butler, @Nebraska
Providence: non-con SoS 149, 4-7 vs. Q1, 5-5 vs. Q2
swing games: beat @Texas, lost to G'town, @DePaul, N-Wichita
Butler: non-con SoS 66, 1-10 vs. Q1, 8-4 vs. Q2
swing games: beat N-Fla, Ole Miss, lost to G'town, @StL, Provi
DePaul: non-con SoS 351, 3-7 vs. Q1, 4-6 vs. Q2
swing games: none, really. lost to BC, @UND, @NW
Well, we can see a few things. First, St John's and Seton Hall are a half-step ahead. Having big wins on the docket matter. St John's SoS is slightly concerning, and losing swing games at home is also concerning. But I think they line up ahead of everyone else, give or take a Seton Hall. SHU is in good shape with those non-con results. I think they're fine as long as they practice bad loss avoidance in this tourney.
We can probably dismiss DePaul on the bottom. They actually picked off 3 roadies in conference play, but those are their Q1 wins. That 351 non-con SoS makes them DOA though. And we'll dismiss Butler, 1 Q1 win isn't enough when there's so many chances on the board. We'll revisit if they pick off Nova. I think I pace Providence at the bottom here as well because of the lack of signature win. If they beat Nova, again, we'll revisit,
That leaves the mess in the middle. They all kinda blur together, Georgetown/Creighton/Xavier. Creighton has the SoS, but 3 Q1 wins is light. Georgetown has 5, Xavier has 4, but all 3 have a few marginal losses and one key win. I'm leaning towards all of them being out, but all of them having a reasonable path to an at-large bid. Creighton and Xavier play each other, making it simple: if the winner of that beats Nova, we've got a discussion. Georgetown is a bit trickier. I think they gotta get both Seton Hall and Marquette to make a reasonable case.
It's looking like 4 bids, but I think the chance of Creighton, Xavier, or Georgetown making the title game is half-decent.
Standings:
Villanova 13-5
Marquette 12-6
Seton Hall 9-9
Xavier 9-9
Creighton 9-9
Georgetown 9-9
St John's 8-10
Providence 7-11
Butler 7-11
DePaul 7-11
Good God. What the hell, Big East.
Format:
March 13-16. MSG. You know the drill.
Matchups:
1) Villanova vs. 8/9) Providence/Butler
4) Xavier vs. 5) Creighton
3) Seton Hall vs. 6) Georgetown
2) Marquette vs. 7/10) St John's/DePaul
The stakes:
What a clusterfark of a bubble situation. Ok, let's deal with Villanova and Marquette first.
Nova has a strong SoS, beat FSU and Temple in the non-con, and their once-terrible loss to Furman is merely a flesh wound now. 15 combined wins in Q1/2 (Big East rankings!). Lacking the high end results to get anywhere near the 3 line, but 4? It's possible. But not probable.
Marquette has more marquee non-con results (Wisky, Buffalo, Louisville, K-State), with more terrible form as of late. Still, 15 Q1/2 wins too, and an overall profile that seems better than Villanova. But if current form matters, they slide slightly. I give them the same outlook as Nova.
Ok, these other 8 clowns. Let's just list all their goods and bads. Because I think all 8 are in bubble play. (these resumes are short, but we need to make them bite size for the sake of brevity)
St John's: non-con SoS 214, 5-6 vs. Q1, 5-3 vs. Q2
swing games: beat Nova, swept Marquette, beat N-VCU, swept by DePaul, beat at home by G'town/Provi/X
Seton Hall: non-con SoS 100, 6-7 vs. Q1, 6-3 vs. Q2
swing games: beat N-Kentucky, Maryland, Nova, Marq, swept by DePaul, lost to St Louis and Xavier at home
Georgetown: non-con SoS 252, 5-6 vs. Q1, 6-5 vs. Q2
swing games: beat Nova, @Marq, lost to SMU, N-LMU, @DePaul
Xavier: non-con SoS 167, 4-8 vs. Q1, 4-4 vs. Q2
swing games: beat Nova, lost to DePaul, N-SDSU, @Mizzou
Creighton: non-con SoS 28, 3-10 vs. Q1, 6-3 vs. Q2
swing games: beat @Marq, lost to @X, @Butler, @Nebraska
Providence: non-con SoS 149, 4-7 vs. Q1, 5-5 vs. Q2
swing games: beat @Texas, lost to G'town, @DePaul, N-Wichita
Butler: non-con SoS 66, 1-10 vs. Q1, 8-4 vs. Q2
swing games: beat N-Fla, Ole Miss, lost to G'town, @StL, Provi
DePaul: non-con SoS 351, 3-7 vs. Q1, 4-6 vs. Q2
swing games: none, really. lost to BC, @UND, @NW
Well, we can see a few things. First, St John's and Seton Hall are a half-step ahead. Having big wins on the docket matter. St John's SoS is slightly concerning, and losing swing games at home is also concerning. But I think they line up ahead of everyone else, give or take a Seton Hall. SHU is in good shape with those non-con results. I think they're fine as long as they practice bad loss avoidance in this tourney.
We can probably dismiss DePaul on the bottom. They actually picked off 3 roadies in conference play, but those are their Q1 wins. That 351 non-con SoS makes them DOA though. And we'll dismiss Butler, 1 Q1 win isn't enough when there's so many chances on the board. We'll revisit if they pick off Nova. I think I pace Providence at the bottom here as well because of the lack of signature win. If they beat Nova, again, we'll revisit,
That leaves the mess in the middle. They all kinda blur together, Georgetown/Creighton/Xavier. Creighton has the SoS, but 3 Q1 wins is light. Georgetown has 5, Xavier has 4, but all 3 have a few marginal losses and one key win. I'm leaning towards all of them being out, but all of them having a reasonable path to an at-large bid. Creighton and Xavier play each other, making it simple: if the winner of that beats Nova, we've got a discussion. Georgetown is a bit trickier. I think they gotta get both Seton Hall and Marquette to make a reasonable case.
It's looking like 4 bids, but I think the chance of Creighton, Xavier, or Georgetown making the title game is half-decent.
Mountain West conference tournament preview
This is part 20 of a 32-part series.
Standings:
Nevada 15-3
Utah St 15-3
Fresno St 13-5
San Diego St 11-7
UNLV 11-7
Air Force 8-10
New Mexico 7-11
Colorado 7-11
Boise St 7-11
Wyoming 4-14
San Jose St 1-17
Format:
Standard bracket, from March 13-16. UNLV hosts. Because every western-based conference goes to Vegas. Literally.
Matchups:
1) Nevada vs. 8/9) Colorado St/Boise St
4) San Diego St vs. 5) UNLV
3) Fresno St vs. 6/11) Air Force/San Jose St
2) Utah St vs. 7/10) New Mexico/Wyoming
The stakes:
Nevada's profile is quirky. The computers say they're a top 20 team. But the team sheet doesn't have much substance. Their series with Utah St (which they split) are their only Q1 games. Their non-con SoS is 82, but with 0 Q1 games among them (to be fair, they have 6 Q2 games in the non-con, and they swept them all. One terribad loss at New Mexico.
Ultimately, what sells me is their Q2 results. 7-1...all 8 games were either road or neutral games. So I don't think their profile will ding them too badly, even if Utah St is the only probable tournament team they played all year long. With a record as gaudy as 28-3, my gut tells me the committee will "eye test" them up a couple seed lines, from an 8 or 9 to a 5 or 6. Really, anywhere in that range would be reasonable to me.
Utah St. Played a non-con SoS of 21, which is really helping. Sure, lost to Houston and Arizona St and BYU. That hurts the profile. But at least there's @UC Irvine and N-St Mary's as wins. Those are Q1 wins, folks. They've got 3 Q1 wins in total. Now, I think the committee will look at that with skeptical eyes, but still, 3 wins there are 3 wins. What does hurt is just 1-3 against Q2 (@Fresno is the win).
In a normal bubble year, I can certainly see the argument against them forming. Just one win over a bonafide tourney team (give or take a UCI). That's normally not enough. But bad loss avoidance (Fresno at home is the worst) plus the state of the bubble leaves them in decent shape. I don't feel very good about this prediction, even if USU loses to Nevada in the final, but I think they're safe if they don't do something stupid.
Let's briefly talk about the MWC as a whole. CNET 13. That's terrible for them, and absolutely hurt both Nevada and Utah St this year. A 24-6 MWC team is usually safe. USU not being safe is completely on the rest of the conference. Down year.
Fresno has an outside chance at the NIT. Alas, @Utah St is really all they got to work with. N-Northwestern and @SDSU are the next 2 best wins, and the non-con SoS approaches 300.
Standings:
Nevada 15-3
Utah St 15-3
Fresno St 13-5
San Diego St 11-7
UNLV 11-7
Air Force 8-10
New Mexico 7-11
Colorado 7-11
Boise St 7-11
Wyoming 4-14
San Jose St 1-17
Format:
Standard bracket, from March 13-16. UNLV hosts. Because every western-based conference goes to Vegas. Literally.
Matchups:
1) Nevada vs. 8/9) Colorado St/Boise St
4) San Diego St vs. 5) UNLV
3) Fresno St vs. 6/11) Air Force/San Jose St
2) Utah St vs. 7/10) New Mexico/Wyoming
The stakes:
Nevada's profile is quirky. The computers say they're a top 20 team. But the team sheet doesn't have much substance. Their series with Utah St (which they split) are their only Q1 games. Their non-con SoS is 82, but with 0 Q1 games among them (to be fair, they have 6 Q2 games in the non-con, and they swept them all. One terribad loss at New Mexico.
Ultimately, what sells me is their Q2 results. 7-1...all 8 games were either road or neutral games. So I don't think their profile will ding them too badly, even if Utah St is the only probable tournament team they played all year long. With a record as gaudy as 28-3, my gut tells me the committee will "eye test" them up a couple seed lines, from an 8 or 9 to a 5 or 6. Really, anywhere in that range would be reasonable to me.
Utah St. Played a non-con SoS of 21, which is really helping. Sure, lost to Houston and Arizona St and BYU. That hurts the profile. But at least there's @UC Irvine and N-St Mary's as wins. Those are Q1 wins, folks. They've got 3 Q1 wins in total. Now, I think the committee will look at that with skeptical eyes, but still, 3 wins there are 3 wins. What does hurt is just 1-3 against Q2 (@Fresno is the win).
In a normal bubble year, I can certainly see the argument against them forming. Just one win over a bonafide tourney team (give or take a UCI). That's normally not enough. But bad loss avoidance (Fresno at home is the worst) plus the state of the bubble leaves them in decent shape. I don't feel very good about this prediction, even if USU loses to Nevada in the final, but I think they're safe if they don't do something stupid.
Let's briefly talk about the MWC as a whole. CNET 13. That's terrible for them, and absolutely hurt both Nevada and Utah St this year. A 24-6 MWC team is usually safe. USU not being safe is completely on the rest of the conference. Down year.
Fresno has an outside chance at the NIT. Alas, @Utah St is really all they got to work with. N-Northwestern and @SDSU are the next 2 best wins, and the non-con SoS approaches 300.
Big 12 conference tournament preview
This is part 19 of a 32-part series.
Standings:
Kansas St 14-4
Texas Tech 14-4
Kansas 12-6
Baylor 10-8
Iowa St 9-9
Texas 8-10
Oklahoma 7-11
TCU 7-11
Oklahoma St 5-13
West Virginia 4-14
Format:
4 days, March 13-16. Your neutral site is Kansas City.
Matchups:
1) Kansas St vs. 8/9) TCU/Oklahoma St
4) Baylor vs. 5) Iowa St
3) Kansas vs. 6) Texas
2) Texas Tech vs. 7/10) Oklahoma/West Virginia
The stakes:
Can anyone from this conference get to the 2 line? Texas Tech might be the best chance, but their non-con SoS is middling at 177, leading to no real impact wins in the non-con. Well, Memphis, Nebraska and Arkansas are okay wins, but they don't work when you're trying to be a 2 seed. Their profile is solid across the board but just lacks the oomph required to be higher. They'll be a perfectly cromulent 3 seed.
Kansas St has basically the mirror of Texas Tech, with regards to non-con results. One difference is that they have 3 Q2 losses (Tech had none). So they slip back a bit, to the edge of the 4/5 line.
Kansas is the impossible team to seed. #1 SoS. 10 Q1 wins. Avg NET win of 63 (!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!). These numbers traditionally scream 1 line. But they lost 8 times (only once outside of Q1). They have the couple extra signature wins of N-Tennessee and N-Michigan St, plus Wofford (a Q1a win!). If they could've just turned 23-8 into 25-6, they'd be on the 1 line. As is, they gave away a couple too many games, and they don't pass the eye test for a 1 or 2 seed. So the conundrum for the committee comes down to how much the eyes matter vs. how much the resume matters. A 3 seed seems like a fair compromise...but there might not be room there for them. In the end, a 3-8 true road record is probably the decider that makes me lean towards 4 line. (dropping them further than a 4 would seem criminal for a team with those computer numbers, IMO)
Iowa St and Baylor are boring for me to discuss, given their relative standing. They're somewhere in the 5-7 lines. I think they absorbed too much damage to make the top 4 lines even if they win out...and they've done enough to really avoid being any lower than an 8.
The bubble fun begins at Oklahoma. Kinda. I think they probably survive a loss to Tech in the quarters, but it's not a slam dunk case. You can laugh, but that Q1a win over Wofford is a profile-saver right now. They went only 4-10 against the other non-garbage B12 teams, which doesn't strike me as good enough on its own to make it. Wofford and N-Florida wins, plus good SoS numbers, plus 8 R/N wins...everything about their profile says "just barely good enough". I'd rather they beat Tech and make my job easier though.
TCU has a softer SoS, so Florida is their only true significant non-con result. They went 5-9 against relevant B12 teams. So slightly better, but their best ones were a sweep of ISU (so no wins over the top 3 schools). They do have 4 neutral site wins buttressing the back end of the resume, but 3 of them are Q3/4. So their .500 R/N record is a slight mirage. Can they make it with a loss to K-State? It's really, truly on the borderline.
Texas has a problem with the sheer number of losses they've absorbed. 16-15. A terrific SoS, a win over UNC that's gaining steam, a win over Purdue. Only 1 Q3 loss....but a few Q2 losses (Provi, @OSU, @Georgia) look worse than your average Q2 loss. They went 5-9 vs. relevant B12 teams. The damning number is 2-8 in true road games. But in the end, at some point, you plain old have to win games. I don't see any case to be made without beating Kansas. If they do that, that'll be their 4th win over a top 4 seed, and boy that's tough to ignore. Beating Kansas AND Tech probably gets them there...losing to Kansas and you just have to boot them out. In a weird way, they would have been better off as a 7 seed. They're the rare team that just plain old needs wins of any kind, plus TTU would be a higher impact win than Kansas right now.
Standings:
Kansas St 14-4
Texas Tech 14-4
Kansas 12-6
Baylor 10-8
Iowa St 9-9
Texas 8-10
Oklahoma 7-11
TCU 7-11
Oklahoma St 5-13
West Virginia 4-14
Format:
4 days, March 13-16. Your neutral site is Kansas City.
Matchups:
1) Kansas St vs. 8/9) TCU/Oklahoma St
4) Baylor vs. 5) Iowa St
3) Kansas vs. 6) Texas
2) Texas Tech vs. 7/10) Oklahoma/West Virginia
The stakes:
Can anyone from this conference get to the 2 line? Texas Tech might be the best chance, but their non-con SoS is middling at 177, leading to no real impact wins in the non-con. Well, Memphis, Nebraska and Arkansas are okay wins, but they don't work when you're trying to be a 2 seed. Their profile is solid across the board but just lacks the oomph required to be higher. They'll be a perfectly cromulent 3 seed.
Kansas St has basically the mirror of Texas Tech, with regards to non-con results. One difference is that they have 3 Q2 losses (Tech had none). So they slip back a bit, to the edge of the 4/5 line.
Kansas is the impossible team to seed. #1 SoS. 10 Q1 wins. Avg NET win of 63 (!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!). These numbers traditionally scream 1 line. But they lost 8 times (only once outside of Q1). They have the couple extra signature wins of N-Tennessee and N-Michigan St, plus Wofford (a Q1a win!). If they could've just turned 23-8 into 25-6, they'd be on the 1 line. As is, they gave away a couple too many games, and they don't pass the eye test for a 1 or 2 seed. So the conundrum for the committee comes down to how much the eyes matter vs. how much the resume matters. A 3 seed seems like a fair compromise...but there might not be room there for them. In the end, a 3-8 true road record is probably the decider that makes me lean towards 4 line. (dropping them further than a 4 would seem criminal for a team with those computer numbers, IMO)
Iowa St and Baylor are boring for me to discuss, given their relative standing. They're somewhere in the 5-7 lines. I think they absorbed too much damage to make the top 4 lines even if they win out...and they've done enough to really avoid being any lower than an 8.
The bubble fun begins at Oklahoma. Kinda. I think they probably survive a loss to Tech in the quarters, but it's not a slam dunk case. You can laugh, but that Q1a win over Wofford is a profile-saver right now. They went only 4-10 against the other non-garbage B12 teams, which doesn't strike me as good enough on its own to make it. Wofford and N-Florida wins, plus good SoS numbers, plus 8 R/N wins...everything about their profile says "just barely good enough". I'd rather they beat Tech and make my job easier though.
TCU has a softer SoS, so Florida is their only true significant non-con result. They went 5-9 against relevant B12 teams. So slightly better, but their best ones were a sweep of ISU (so no wins over the top 3 schools). They do have 4 neutral site wins buttressing the back end of the resume, but 3 of them are Q3/4. So their .500 R/N record is a slight mirage. Can they make it with a loss to K-State? It's really, truly on the borderline.
Texas has a problem with the sheer number of losses they've absorbed. 16-15. A terrific SoS, a win over UNC that's gaining steam, a win over Purdue. Only 1 Q3 loss....but a few Q2 losses (Provi, @OSU, @Georgia) look worse than your average Q2 loss. They went 5-9 vs. relevant B12 teams. The damning number is 2-8 in true road games. But in the end, at some point, you plain old have to win games. I don't see any case to be made without beating Kansas. If they do that, that'll be their 4th win over a top 4 seed, and boy that's tough to ignore. Beating Kansas AND Tech probably gets them there...losing to Kansas and you just have to boot them out. In a weird way, they would have been better off as a 7 seed. They're the rare team that just plain old needs wins of any kind, plus TTU would be a higher impact win than Kansas right now.
Sun Belt conference tournament preview
This is part 18 of a 32-part series.
Standings:
Georgia St 13-5
UT Arlington 12-6
Georgia Southern 12-6
Texas St 12-6
Louisiana 10-8
Coastal Carolina 9-9
Louisiana-Monroe 9-9
South Alabama 8-10
Arkansas St 7-11
Appalachian St 6-12
Troy 5-13
Little Rock 5-13
Format:
Exotic ladder format alert! Only 10 teams qualify. Top 2 seeds get double bye'd into the semifinals. Everything happens at a neutral site in New Orleans March 12-17.
Matchups:
1) Georgia St vs. 4) Texas St vs. 5) Louisiana vs. 8/9) South Alabama/Arkansas St
2) UT Arlington vs. 3) Georgia Southern vs. 6) Coastal Carolina vs. 7/10) Louisiana-Monroe/Appalachian St
The stakes:
Not a lot. CNET 17. The conference champ should be able to avoid the 16 line, but definitely can't reach the 13 line. Stradding the 14/15 line depending on who wins.
Georgia St has some reasonable results in their non-con, beating ETSU and @Alabama. So 14 is reasonable for them (and who knows, maybe 13 is reachable after all). The other resumes in the conference are more modest. It might be the easiest conference for which to peg a seed on ahead of time, IMO.
Standings:
Georgia St 13-5
UT Arlington 12-6
Georgia Southern 12-6
Texas St 12-6
Louisiana 10-8
Coastal Carolina 9-9
Louisiana-Monroe 9-9
South Alabama 8-10
Arkansas St 7-11
Appalachian St 6-12
Troy 5-13
Little Rock 5-13
Format:
Exotic ladder format alert! Only 10 teams qualify. Top 2 seeds get double bye'd into the semifinals. Everything happens at a neutral site in New Orleans March 12-17.
Matchups:
1) Georgia St vs. 4) Texas St vs. 5) Louisiana vs. 8/9) South Alabama/Arkansas St
2) UT Arlington vs. 3) Georgia Southern vs. 6) Coastal Carolina vs. 7/10) Louisiana-Monroe/Appalachian St
The stakes:
Not a lot. CNET 17. The conference champ should be able to avoid the 16 line, but definitely can't reach the 13 line. Stradding the 14/15 line depending on who wins.
Georgia St has some reasonable results in their non-con, beating ETSU and @Alabama. So 14 is reasonable for them (and who knows, maybe 13 is reachable after all). The other resumes in the conference are more modest. It might be the easiest conference for which to peg a seed on ahead of time, IMO.
Saturday, March 9, 2019
3/10 SEED LIST
About ready to go daily in the blag. Another wave of seed scrubbing, so expect small changed unannounced in the bracket going forward. All of a sudden, things feel light on the 5 line, there's room for teams to move up there.
One round of changes near the bubble. Another round of changes in the back end, as we have our first wave of ins/outs in conference tournaments.
The 1 line: Virginia, Gonzaga, Kentucky, North Carolina
The 2 line: Duke, LSU, Tennessee, Michigan St
The 3 line: Texas Tech, Michigan, Purdue, Houston
The 4 line: Florida St, Kansas, Wisconsin, Kansas St
The 5 line: Virginia Tech, Maryland, Mississippi St, Marquette
The 6 line: Auburn, Buffalo, Nevada, Villanova
The 7 line: Iowa St, Cincinnati, Wofford, Baylor
The 8 line: Louisville, VCU, Oklahoma, Iowa
The 9 line: UCF, Ole Miss, Syracuse, Washington
The 10 line: Arizona St, Minnesota, St John's, Utah St
The 11 line: Seton Hall, Ohio St, Florida, Temple
The 12 line: TCU, Clemson, North Carolina St, Belmont, Lipscomb, Murray St
The 13 line: New Mexico St, Old Dominion, UC Irvine, Hofstra
The 14 line: Vermont, Harvard, Georgia St, Bradley
The 15 line: Colgate, Radford, Wright St, Montana
The 16 line: Omaha, Sam Houston St, Iona, St Francis(PA), Prairie View A&M, Norfolk St
Next 4 in:
Seton Hall
Ohio St
Florida
Temple
Last 4 in:
TCU
Clemson
North Carolina St
Belmont
Last 4 out:
Indiana
Texas
Furman
Alabama
Next 4 out:
Georgetown
Xavier
Creighton
St Mary's
My first pass at the NIT this year. I need to scrub this one, a lot, but this is where I'm starting from. I don't have a good sense as to what'll happen with these marginal Big East, SEC, and Pac-12 teams right now.
NIT lines:
The 1 line: Indiana, Texas, Furman, Alabama
The 2 line: Georgetown, Xavier, Creighton, St Mary's
The 3 line: UNC Greensboro, Oregon, Providence, Davidson
The 4 line: Butler, BYU, Arkansas, South Carolina
The 5 line: Memphis, Toledo, Dayton, Oregon St
The 6 line: Liberty, Colorado, East Tennessee St, Fresno St
The 7 line: San Francisco, Northeastern, Arizona, Utah
The 8 line: Wichita St, Loyola(Chi), South Dakota St, Campbell
Last 4 in (projected cutline):
Memphis
Toledo
Dayton
Oregon St
Last 4 out (projected cutline):
Liberty
Colorado
East Tennessee St
Fresno St
One round of changes near the bubble. Another round of changes in the back end, as we have our first wave of ins/outs in conference tournaments.
The 1 line: Virginia, Gonzaga, Kentucky, North Carolina
The 2 line: Duke, LSU, Tennessee, Michigan St
The 3 line: Texas Tech, Michigan, Purdue, Houston
The 4 line: Florida St, Kansas, Wisconsin, Kansas St
The 5 line: Virginia Tech, Maryland, Mississippi St, Marquette
The 6 line: Auburn, Buffalo, Nevada, Villanova
The 7 line: Iowa St, Cincinnati, Wofford, Baylor
The 8 line: Louisville, VCU, Oklahoma, Iowa
The 9 line: UCF, Ole Miss, Syracuse, Washington
The 10 line: Arizona St, Minnesota, St John's, Utah St
The 11 line: Seton Hall, Ohio St, Florida, Temple
The 12 line: TCU, Clemson, North Carolina St, Belmont, Lipscomb, Murray St
The 13 line: New Mexico St, Old Dominion, UC Irvine, Hofstra
The 14 line: Vermont, Harvard, Georgia St, Bradley
The 15 line: Colgate, Radford, Wright St, Montana
The 16 line: Omaha, Sam Houston St, Iona, St Francis(PA), Prairie View A&M, Norfolk St
Next 4 in:
Seton Hall
Ohio St
Florida
Temple
Last 4 in:
TCU
Clemson
North Carolina St
Belmont
Last 4 out:
Indiana
Texas
Furman
Alabama
Next 4 out:
Georgetown
Xavier
Creighton
St Mary's
My first pass at the NIT this year. I need to scrub this one, a lot, but this is where I'm starting from. I don't have a good sense as to what'll happen with these marginal Big East, SEC, and Pac-12 teams right now.
NIT lines:
The 1 line: Indiana, Texas, Furman, Alabama
The 2 line: Georgetown, Xavier, Creighton, St Mary's
The 3 line: UNC Greensboro, Oregon, Providence, Davidson
The 4 line: Butler, BYU, Arkansas, South Carolina
The 5 line: Memphis, Toledo, Dayton, Oregon St
The 6 line: Liberty, Colorado, East Tennessee St, Fresno St
The 7 line: San Francisco, Northeastern, Arizona, Utah
The 8 line: Wichita St, Loyola(Chi), South Dakota St, Campbell
Last 4 in (projected cutline):
Memphis
Toledo
Dayton
Oregon St
Last 4 out (projected cutline):
Liberty
Colorado
East Tennessee St
Fresno St
3/9 recap
Davidson 73, @Richmond 69
Dayton 78, @Duquesne 67 - A-10 desperately trying to stay somewhere in this bubble race
@Virginia 73, Louisville 68 - UVa is locked onto the 1 line
@UNC 79, Duke 70 - this Zion thing is officially a Thing. Duke off the 1 line
Florida St 65, @Wake 57
@Clemson 67, Syracuse 55 - I'll admit, part of me was rooting for Syracuse so we could just discard Clemson entirely. As is, we have a loser-out game with NCSU coming up
NC State 73, @BC 47 - road wins are never trivial
@Temple 67, UCF 62 - the AAC couldn't have played out this last week any better. UCF picks up 2 signature wins; Temple picks up a signature win over the team that became signature last week
@Memphis 66, Tulsa 63 - I'll admit I looked at Memphis' profile a little bit, just to see if I could pick up any Tulsa '16 vibes. Can't do it
Texas Tech 80, @Iowa St 73
@Kansas 78, Baylor 70
@Kansas St 68, Oklahoma 53
TCU 69, @Texas 56 - ok, now it's getting serious for Texas. At some point, you have to actually, physically win games. I'm taking them out for the time being under the emergency protocol of "I can't put a 16-15 team in this field". Applying same principle to Indiana, if only briefly. TCU is hardly safe, but this is a biggie
Georgetown 86, @Marquette 84 - go to hell, Big East
@Seton Hall 79, Villanova 75 - it's not pretty, but SHU will be the 4th team out of the BE
@Providence 83, Butler 70
@Xavier 81, St John's 68
@Creighton 91, DePaul 78 - the way I see it, Creighton/Provi/G'town/Xavier are still all in play, in some form, but all are comfortably out right now
@Michigan St 75, Michigan 63 - this was for a spot on the 2 line
Purdue 70, @Northwestern 57
@Nevada 81, San Diego St 53
Arizona St 72, @Arizona 64
Oregon 55, @Washington 47 - oh lord
NITwatch: Oregon St, Colorado, Utah win. Lord have mercy on the NIT committee sorting this conference out
@Auburn 84, Tennessee 80 - today's phrase of the day is "contingency brackets". As is the selection committee will need them for the SEC championship, as I see the winner there getting a 1 seed, point blank
@LSU 80, Vandy 59
@Kentucky 66, Florida 57
@Mississippi St 92, Texas A&M 81
Ole Miss 73, @Missouri 68 - road wins are never trivial
@Arkansas 82, Alabama 70 - this is why road win are never trivial. Bama out
@New Mexico St 75, Cal Baptist 63 - I don't think it's realistic, but NMSU has only 4 losses and a shiny NET
OVC finals:
Murray St 77, Belmont 65 - and now, we get to discuss Belmont for a week. Do you want Texas, Indiana, NC State, or Belmont? I think I know where just about everyone will go on this one
SoCon quarters:
Wofford 92, VMI 72
East Tennessee St 68, Chattanooga 64
UNC Greensboro 77, Samford 70
Furman 85, Mercer 74 - form holds, so we get the four studs in the semifinals. Maximum profile enhancements coming for the winners
WCC quarters:
Pepperdine 89, San Francisco 72 - what a whimper to the finish line for USF
San Diego 80, BYU 57 - WHAT. BYU, what are you doing. If nothing else, this kills St Mary's as they would've needed the profile boost of a win over BYU for a last-gasp chance at an at-large bid
MVC semis:
Bradley 53, Loyola(Chi) 51
Northern Iowa 60, Drake 58 - this tournament goes sideways, but given the parity here, it was one of the likeliest to go sideways
NEC semis:
Fairleigh Dickinson 66, Robert Morris 62
St Francis(PA) 72, LIU 64
CAA 1st round:
James Madison 74, Towson 73
UNC Wilmington 93, Elon 86
AEast quarters:
UMBC 62, Albany 54
Hartford 78, UMass Lowell 70
Vermont 73, Maine 57
Binghamton 78, Stony Brook 72 - major upset, and the road is wide open for Vermont
Summit quarters:
Western Illinois 79, South Dakota St 76 - wait, what?
Omaha 81, North Dakota 76
MAAC quarters:
Monmouth 98, Quinnipiac 92
Siena 87, Rider 81
Dayton 78, @Duquesne 67 - A-10 desperately trying to stay somewhere in this bubble race
@Virginia 73, Louisville 68 - UVa is locked onto the 1 line
@UNC 79, Duke 70 - this Zion thing is officially a Thing. Duke off the 1 line
Florida St 65, @Wake 57
@Clemson 67, Syracuse 55 - I'll admit, part of me was rooting for Syracuse so we could just discard Clemson entirely. As is, we have a loser-out game with NCSU coming up
NC State 73, @BC 47 - road wins are never trivial
@Temple 67, UCF 62 - the AAC couldn't have played out this last week any better. UCF picks up 2 signature wins; Temple picks up a signature win over the team that became signature last week
@Memphis 66, Tulsa 63 - I'll admit I looked at Memphis' profile a little bit, just to see if I could pick up any Tulsa '16 vibes. Can't do it
Texas Tech 80, @Iowa St 73
@Kansas 78, Baylor 70
@Kansas St 68, Oklahoma 53
TCU 69, @Texas 56 - ok, now it's getting serious for Texas. At some point, you have to actually, physically win games. I'm taking them out for the time being under the emergency protocol of "I can't put a 16-15 team in this field". Applying same principle to Indiana, if only briefly. TCU is hardly safe, but this is a biggie
Georgetown 86, @Marquette 84 - go to hell, Big East
@Seton Hall 79, Villanova 75 - it's not pretty, but SHU will be the 4th team out of the BE
@Providence 83, Butler 70
@Xavier 81, St John's 68
@Creighton 91, DePaul 78 - the way I see it, Creighton/Provi/G'town/Xavier are still all in play, in some form, but all are comfortably out right now
@Michigan St 75, Michigan 63 - this was for a spot on the 2 line
Purdue 70, @Northwestern 57
@Nevada 81, San Diego St 53
Arizona St 72, @Arizona 64
Oregon 55, @Washington 47 - oh lord
NITwatch: Oregon St, Colorado, Utah win. Lord have mercy on the NIT committee sorting this conference out
@Auburn 84, Tennessee 80 - today's phrase of the day is "contingency brackets". As is the selection committee will need them for the SEC championship, as I see the winner there getting a 1 seed, point blank
@LSU 80, Vandy 59
@Kentucky 66, Florida 57
@Mississippi St 92, Texas A&M 81
Ole Miss 73, @Missouri 68 - road wins are never trivial
@Arkansas 82, Alabama 70 - this is why road win are never trivial. Bama out
@New Mexico St 75, Cal Baptist 63 - I don't think it's realistic, but NMSU has only 4 losses and a shiny NET
OVC finals:
Murray St 77, Belmont 65 - and now, we get to discuss Belmont for a week. Do you want Texas, Indiana, NC State, or Belmont? I think I know where just about everyone will go on this one
SoCon quarters:
Wofford 92, VMI 72
East Tennessee St 68, Chattanooga 64
UNC Greensboro 77, Samford 70
Furman 85, Mercer 74 - form holds, so we get the four studs in the semifinals. Maximum profile enhancements coming for the winners
WCC quarters:
Pepperdine 89, San Francisco 72 - what a whimper to the finish line for USF
San Diego 80, BYU 57 - WHAT. BYU, what are you doing. If nothing else, this kills St Mary's as they would've needed the profile boost of a win over BYU for a last-gasp chance at an at-large bid
MVC semis:
Bradley 53, Loyola(Chi) 51
Northern Iowa 60, Drake 58 - this tournament goes sideways, but given the parity here, it was one of the likeliest to go sideways
NEC semis:
Fairleigh Dickinson 66, Robert Morris 62
St Francis(PA) 72, LIU 64
CAA 1st round:
James Madison 74, Towson 73
UNC Wilmington 93, Elon 86
AEast quarters:
UMBC 62, Albany 54
Hartford 78, UMass Lowell 70
Vermont 73, Maine 57
Binghamton 78, Stony Brook 72 - major upset, and the road is wide open for Vermont
Summit quarters:
Western Illinois 79, South Dakota St 76 - wait, what?
Omaha 81, North Dakota 76
MAAC quarters:
Monmouth 98, Quinnipiac 92
Siena 87, Rider 81
SWAC conference tournament preview
This is part 17 of a 32-part series.
Standings:
Prairie View A&M 17-1
Texas Southern 14-4
Jackson St 10-8
Grambling 10-8
Arkansas-Pine Bluff 10-8
Alabama St 9-9
Southern 6-12
Alcorn St 6-12
Alabama A&M 4-14
Mississippi Valley St 4-14
Format:
8 qualify. AA&M are APR'd out, MVSU is out for incompetence. Quarterfinals are on campus March 12, then they convene March 15-16 in Birmingham.
Matchups:
1) Prairie View A&M vs. 8) Alcorn St
4) Grambling vs. 5) Arkansas-Pine Bluff
3) Jackson St vs. 6) Alabama St
2) Texas Southern vs. 7) Southern
The stakes:
The winner is going to Dayton.
Actually, PVAM's RPI is around 150 - they could have had a nonzero shot at avoiding Dayton, just based on that number combined with some butt-ugly play in other conferences. As is, they're sunk in NET, just like everyone else here.
I just wasted 5 minutes typing this up.
Standings:
Prairie View A&M 17-1
Texas Southern 14-4
Jackson St 10-8
Grambling 10-8
Arkansas-Pine Bluff 10-8
Alabama St 9-9
Southern 6-12
Alcorn St 6-12
Alabama A&M 4-14
Mississippi Valley St 4-14
Format:
8 qualify. AA&M are APR'd out, MVSU is out for incompetence. Quarterfinals are on campus March 12, then they convene March 15-16 in Birmingham.
Matchups:
1) Prairie View A&M vs. 8) Alcorn St
4) Grambling vs. 5) Arkansas-Pine Bluff
3) Jackson St vs. 6) Alabama St
2) Texas Southern vs. 7) Southern
The stakes:
The winner is going to Dayton.
Actually, PVAM's RPI is around 150 - they could have had a nonzero shot at avoiding Dayton, just based on that number combined with some butt-ugly play in other conferences. As is, they're sunk in NET, just like everyone else here.
I just wasted 5 minutes typing this up.
ACC conference tournament preview
This is part 16 of a 32-part preview.
Standings:
Virginia 16-2
North Carolina 16-2
Duke 14-4
Florida St 13-5
Virginia Tech 12-6
Syracuse 10-8
Louisville 10-8
NC State 9-9
Clemson 9-9
Georgia Tech 6-12
Boston College 5-13
Miami 5-13
Wake Forest 4-14
Pitt 3-15
Notre Dame 3-15
Format:
5 days, from March 12-16. Double byes for the top 4 teams, as they have to accomodate 15 friggin' teams.
Matchups:
1) Virginia vs. 8/9) North Carolina St/Clemson
4) Florida St vs. 5/12/13) Virginia Tech/Miami/Wake Forest
3) Duke vs. 6/11/14) Syracuse/Boston College/Pitt
2) North Carolina vs. 7/10/15) Louisville/Georgia Tech/Notre Dame
The stakes:
I think Virginia is locked onto the 1 line, and probably can't do worse than #2 overall. I think the committee will lock them up there, set it and forget it.
UNC has passed Duke on my board, putting them on the 1 line and Duke on the 2 line. So much will depend on Zion's health, whether or not that'll change. It might be as simple as whoever goes further in the tournament gets a 1 seed, and the loser gets a 2 seed.
In practice, it might not be as simple as that, as I think coherent arguments can be made for, say, 2 SEC teams on the 1 line, and Duke and UNC on the 2 line if shenanigans happen in the ACCT.
There's some interesting seeding decisions downstream in the seed list. Florida St is a team I've crept up to the 4 line; it's a bit flimsy, and I wouldn't be surprised if teams below them won their way past FSU, bumping them to a 5 seed. And one sneaky bracket fact: if you're a top 4 seed, and the 4th best team in your conference, you get the worst geographic placement (read: west region). It's because of the Top 4 rule to keep top teams in a conference away from each other in the bracket. It almost might be better to be a 5 seed out east than a 4 out west.
I've been holding Virginia Tech back just a bit in the seed list; their non-con SoS deep in the 200s is a pretty obvious reason why. They're really lacking depth of quality wins (only 3 wins over surefire tourney teams), which makes the argument for a top 4 seed tough. If they get to, and through Virginia, that'll change. But probably not before then.
I think Syracuse and Louisville are safely in the field, mid-pack...seed can certainly change (in either direction) dramatically, but it's tough to talk about those changed in a vacuum.
Bubble. I've talked so much about NC State's non-con SoS. 352. That's not good. The committee has a long and storied tradition of bouncing those teams out of their tourney. Their lynchpin wins (Auburn, Syracuse, Clemson) are home wins. I think they have to beat Clemson...and maybe Virginia too, to make it. I just can't project them in.
Clemson has a similar problem of lack of quality wins (Syracuse, Va Tech, Lipscomb), but have the better non-con SoS numbers, but a couple more squirrely losses....beating NC State might be enough. But I'm not willing to lock that in, upon further review.
The good news about this tourney setup is that it's very solvent. Clemson and NC State have to play; loser almost certainly has to be out. Winner has a chance to win their way in by beating Virginia. A win there and it's an easy call; a loss and it's a tough call. FSU and VT likely play with a possible 4 seed on the line. UNC/Duke play with a 1 seed on the line. Solvent.
Standings:
Virginia 16-2
North Carolina 16-2
Duke 14-4
Florida St 13-5
Virginia Tech 12-6
Syracuse 10-8
Louisville 10-8
NC State 9-9
Clemson 9-9
Georgia Tech 6-12
Boston College 5-13
Miami 5-13
Wake Forest 4-14
Pitt 3-15
Notre Dame 3-15
Format:
5 days, from March 12-16. Double byes for the top 4 teams, as they have to accomodate 15 friggin' teams.
Matchups:
1) Virginia vs. 8/9) North Carolina St/Clemson
4) Florida St vs. 5/12/13) Virginia Tech/Miami/Wake Forest
3) Duke vs. 6/11/14) Syracuse/Boston College/Pitt
2) North Carolina vs. 7/10/15) Louisville/Georgia Tech/Notre Dame
The stakes:
I think Virginia is locked onto the 1 line, and probably can't do worse than #2 overall. I think the committee will lock them up there, set it and forget it.
UNC has passed Duke on my board, putting them on the 1 line and Duke on the 2 line. So much will depend on Zion's health, whether or not that'll change. It might be as simple as whoever goes further in the tournament gets a 1 seed, and the loser gets a 2 seed.
In practice, it might not be as simple as that, as I think coherent arguments can be made for, say, 2 SEC teams on the 1 line, and Duke and UNC on the 2 line if shenanigans happen in the ACCT.
There's some interesting seeding decisions downstream in the seed list. Florida St is a team I've crept up to the 4 line; it's a bit flimsy, and I wouldn't be surprised if teams below them won their way past FSU, bumping them to a 5 seed. And one sneaky bracket fact: if you're a top 4 seed, and the 4th best team in your conference, you get the worst geographic placement (read: west region). It's because of the Top 4 rule to keep top teams in a conference away from each other in the bracket. It almost might be better to be a 5 seed out east than a 4 out west.
I've been holding Virginia Tech back just a bit in the seed list; their non-con SoS deep in the 200s is a pretty obvious reason why. They're really lacking depth of quality wins (only 3 wins over surefire tourney teams), which makes the argument for a top 4 seed tough. If they get to, and through Virginia, that'll change. But probably not before then.
I think Syracuse and Louisville are safely in the field, mid-pack...seed can certainly change (in either direction) dramatically, but it's tough to talk about those changed in a vacuum.
Bubble. I've talked so much about NC State's non-con SoS. 352. That's not good. The committee has a long and storied tradition of bouncing those teams out of their tourney. Their lynchpin wins (Auburn, Syracuse, Clemson) are home wins. I think they have to beat Clemson...and maybe Virginia too, to make it. I just can't project them in.
Clemson has a similar problem of lack of quality wins (Syracuse, Va Tech, Lipscomb), but have the better non-con SoS numbers, but a couple more squirrely losses....beating NC State might be enough. But I'm not willing to lock that in, upon further review.
The good news about this tourney setup is that it's very solvent. Clemson and NC State have to play; loser almost certainly has to be out. Winner has a chance to win their way in by beating Virginia. A win there and it's an easy call; a loss and it's a tough call. FSU and VT likely play with a possible 4 seed on the line. UNC/Duke play with a 1 seed on the line. Solvent.
3/8 recap
@Virginia Tech 84, Miami 70
@Maryland 69, Minnesota 60
@Buffalo 84, Bowling Green 73
@VCU 75, St Joseph's 63
OVC semis:
Belmont 83, Austin Peay 67
Murray St 76, Jacksonville St 74 - welp, we've got our OVC at-large bid debate either way now. Belmont might be able to survive; Murray St won't
WCC 2nd round:
Pepperdine 68, Loyola Marymount 65
San Diego 62, Santa Clara 45
MVC quarters:
Loyola(Chi) 67, Valparaiso 54
Bradley 61, Missouri St 58
Drake 78, Illinois St 62
Northern Iowa 61, Southern Illinois 58
Big South semis:
Radford 63, Charleston Southern 54
Gardner-Webb 79, Campbell 74 - our first NIT bid poaching of the year
MAAC quarters:
Iona 73, St Peter's 71
Canisius 69, Manhattan 65 (OT)
SoCon 1st round:
VMI 96, Western Carolina 83
Samford 100, Citadel 71
@Maryland 69, Minnesota 60
@Buffalo 84, Bowling Green 73
@VCU 75, St Joseph's 63
OVC semis:
Belmont 83, Austin Peay 67
Murray St 76, Jacksonville St 74 - welp, we've got our OVC at-large bid debate either way now. Belmont might be able to survive; Murray St won't
WCC 2nd round:
Pepperdine 68, Loyola Marymount 65
San Diego 62, Santa Clara 45
MVC quarters:
Loyola(Chi) 67, Valparaiso 54
Bradley 61, Missouri St 58
Drake 78, Illinois St 62
Northern Iowa 61, Southern Illinois 58
Big South semis:
Radford 63, Charleston Southern 54
Gardner-Webb 79, Campbell 74 - our first NIT bid poaching of the year
MAAC quarters:
Iona 73, St Peter's 71
Canisius 69, Manhattan 65 (OT)
SoCon 1st round:
VMI 96, Western Carolina 83
Samford 100, Citadel 71
Friday, March 8, 2019
MAC conference tournament preview
This is part 15 of a 32-part series.
Standings:
Buffalo 16-2
Toledo 13-5
Bowling Green 12-6
Kent St 11-7
Central Michigan 10-8
Eastern Michigan 9-9
Northern Illinois 8-10
Akron 8-10
Miami(OH) 7-11
Ohio 6-12
Ball St 6-12
Western Michigan 2-16
Format:
A first round for the bottom 8 teams is played at campus sites on March 11. The remaining teams head to Cleveland March 14-16.
Matchups:
1) Buffalo vs. 8/9) Akron/Miami(OH)
4) Kent St vs. 5/12) Central Michigan/Western Michigan
3) Bowling Green vs. 6/11) Eastern Michigan/Ball St
2) Toledo vs. 7/10) Northern Illinois/Ohio
The stakes:
Buffalo is in the lockbox. If they lose, we're getting the moment I've been waiting for, for two decades - the MAC at-large bid. Longtime readers will know the tradition of always projecting an at-large bid for the MAC in preseason brackets. Finally, after being down for so long, Buffalo has become a legit at-large team, and has even dragged the conference to 9th in CNET. If they lose, we break through, folks.
Buffalo is 7-2 against Q1/2 schools. That's shiny. One bad one they took @NIU, but the Spiderman rule applies here. Everyone gets one. That won't hurt them. If there is a criticism, only one of the 7 quality wins is over a tourney team (Syracuse), so that may hurt seeding. They may only peak at a 7 or an 8 if the committee is onerous.
Toledo has 4 Q2 wins and a NET of 60. They're in range of the NIT bubble as an at-large, but they only have 1 Top 100 win. So it's probably not going to happen.
Standings:
Buffalo 16-2
Toledo 13-5
Bowling Green 12-6
Kent St 11-7
Central Michigan 10-8
Eastern Michigan 9-9
Northern Illinois 8-10
Akron 8-10
Miami(OH) 7-11
Ohio 6-12
Ball St 6-12
Western Michigan 2-16
Format:
A first round for the bottom 8 teams is played at campus sites on March 11. The remaining teams head to Cleveland March 14-16.
Matchups:
1) Buffalo vs. 8/9) Akron/Miami(OH)
4) Kent St vs. 5/12) Central Michigan/Western Michigan
3) Bowling Green vs. 6/11) Eastern Michigan/Ball St
2) Toledo vs. 7/10) Northern Illinois/Ohio
The stakes:
Buffalo is in the lockbox. If they lose, we're getting the moment I've been waiting for, for two decades - the MAC at-large bid. Longtime readers will know the tradition of always projecting an at-large bid for the MAC in preseason brackets. Finally, after being down for so long, Buffalo has become a legit at-large team, and has even dragged the conference to 9th in CNET. If they lose, we break through, folks.
Buffalo is 7-2 against Q1/2 schools. That's shiny. One bad one they took @NIU, but the Spiderman rule applies here. Everyone gets one. That won't hurt them. If there is a criticism, only one of the 7 quality wins is over a tourney team (Syracuse), so that may hurt seeding. They may only peak at a 7 or an 8 if the committee is onerous.
Toledo has 4 Q2 wins and a NET of 60. They're in range of the NIT bubble as an at-large, but they only have 1 Top 100 win. So it's probably not going to happen.
MEAC conference tournament preview
This is part 14 of a 32-part series.
Standings:
Norfolk St 14-2
North Carolina A&T 13-3
North Carolina Central 10-6
Howard 10-6
Bethune-Cookman 9-7
Florida A&M 9-7
Savannah St 8-8
Coppin St 7-9
Maryland-Eastern Shore 5-11
South Carolina St 5-11
Morgan St 4-12
Delaware St 2-14
Format:
March 11-16, straight-up bracket, just stretched out over a few extra days. FAMU is APR'd out of the tournament.
Matchups:
1) Norfolk St vs. 8/9) UMES/South Carolina St
4) Howard vs. 5) Bethune-Cookman
3) North Carolina Central vs. 6/11) Savannah St/Delaware
2) North Carolina A&T vs. 7/10) Coppin St/Morgan St
The stakes:
The MEAC's CNET is 32. Even worse than the SWAC this year. Everyone is below NET 250. NC A&T posted a winning overall record and their NET is in the 300s. Norfolk St is miles ahead of everyone else with a NET ranking of 252.
The winner of this tournament is heading to Dayton, period, point blank. We're already done here.
Standings:
Norfolk St 14-2
North Carolina A&T 13-3
North Carolina Central 10-6
Howard 10-6
Bethune-Cookman 9-7
Florida A&M 9-7
Savannah St 8-8
Coppin St 7-9
Maryland-Eastern Shore 5-11
South Carolina St 5-11
Morgan St 4-12
Delaware St 2-14
Format:
March 11-16, straight-up bracket, just stretched out over a few extra days. FAMU is APR'd out of the tournament.
Matchups:
1) Norfolk St vs. 8/9) UMES/South Carolina St
4) Howard vs. 5) Bethune-Cookman
3) North Carolina Central vs. 6/11) Savannah St/Delaware
2) North Carolina A&T vs. 7/10) Coppin St/Morgan St
The stakes:
The MEAC's CNET is 32. Even worse than the SWAC this year. Everyone is below NET 250. NC A&T posted a winning overall record and their NET is in the 300s. Norfolk St is miles ahead of everyone else with a NET ranking of 252.
The winner of this tournament is heading to Dayton, period, point blank. We're already done here.
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