Big East
Lockbox
Villanova (16-1) (5-0) RPI 2 SoS 10
Vital signs: 7-1 R/N, non-con SoS 16, 3-1 vs. RPI Top 50, 9-1 vs. RPI Top 100
Quality wins: N-Kansas, N-Iowa, and some marginal ones
Bad losses: nope
There's actually a lack of depth of true quality wins for a 1 seed here. The difference? The top 2 wins are so good I can ignore it - for now.
Creighton (15-3) (5-1) RPI 15 SoS 34
Vital signs: 5-3 R/N, non-con SoS 69, 2-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 7-3 vs. RPI Top 100
Quality wins: Cal, Xavier, N-Arizona St? eh
Bad losses: none, unless you wanna count @Providence
Could use a high-end win or two, but otherwise they'll be just fine.
Bubble
Xavier (14-4) (4-1) RPI 34 SoS 38
Vital signs: 2-4 R/N, non-con SoS 66, 1-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 7-3 vs. RPI Top 100
Quality wins: N-Cincy, Tennessee, G'town
Bad losses: swept in Atlantis (N-USC being the sin)
My impression is that they'll be fine if they avoid too many bad losses at this point. Could use a boost in R/N wins.
Georgetown (11-6) (3-3) RPI 58 SoS 42
Vital signs: 3-5 R/N, non-con SoS 76, 2-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 5-4 vs. RPI Top 100
Quality wins: N-VCU, N-Kansas St, and that's it
Bad losses: N-Northeastern and Seton Hall looks bad
The two quality wins will save them, for now. It's better than many bubble teams, but if they lean on it too hard, they'll fall over.
Providence (13-5) (3-2) RPI 48 SoS 48
Vital signs: 4-4 R/N, non-con SoS 143, 1-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 4-4 vs. RPI Top 100
Quality wins: Creighton, G'town
Bad losses: Seton Hall, N-Maryland?
Provi is on the edge of the bubble talk, thanks to taking care of a couple good opponents at home. Plenty of work to do but there's a base to work from here.
NIT watch
Butler (10-7) (1-5) RPI 88 SoS 65 - way way too much damage absorbed in conference play
Marquette (10-8) (2-3) RPI 110 SoS 90
Seton Hall (11-7) (2-3) RPI 115 SoS 109 - well, they DID win at Provi and G'town
EIEIO watch
St John's (10-8) (0-5) RPI 96 SoS 36
Nope
DePaul (10-9) (2-4) RPI 85 SoS 41
American
Lockbox
Louisville (16-3) (5-1) RPI 31 SoS 73
Vital signs: 5-2 R/N, non-con SoS 147, 3-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 4-3 vs. RPI Top 100
Quality wins: @UConn.....USM? SMU? eh
Bad losses: none
The victim of conference realignment. Need quality wins and aren't going to get many chances.
Cincinnati (17-2) (6-0) RPI 22 SoS 90
Vital signs: 4-2 R/N, non-con SoS 145, 3-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 5-2 vs. RPI Top 100
Quality wins: N-Pitt, @Memphis, SMU?
Bad losses: none
Bad loss avoidance! No real holes in this profile yet.
Memphis (12-4) (3-2) RPI 39 SoS 38
Vital signs: 6-2 R/N, non-con SoS 88, 2-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 3-4 vs. RPI Top 100
Quality wins: N-Okla St, @Louisville, N-LSU
Bad losses: none
Bad loss avoidance is the key here, as the high-end wins are high enough.
UConn (14-4) (2-3) RPI 28 SoS 29
Vital signs: 5-2 R/N, non-con SoS 60, 3-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 7-3 vs. RPI Top 100
Quality wins: Florida, Harvard, @Memphis, N-Indiana and Maryland?
Bad losses: @Houston, Stanford
They'll be fine, with the stable of wins they have.
Bubble
SMU (14-4) (3-2) RPI 44 SoS 97
Vital signs: 5-4 R/N, non-con SoS 227, 1-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 2-4 vs. RPI Top 100
Quality wins: UConn...@Wyoming? ugh
Bad losses: none, actually
The SoS is obviously the issue here. They'll have to prove they belong in conference play. Of course, beating UConn is a nice start to that.
EIEIO watch
Houston (11-7) () RPI 164 SoS 207
Nope
South Florida (10-8) (1-4) RPI 171 SoS 157
Temple (5-11) (0-5) RPI 176 SoS 56
Rutgers (7-10) (2-3) RPI 193 SoS 68
Central Florida (7-7) (1-4) RPI 222 SoS 233
A-10
Lockbox
UMass (16-1) (3-0) RPI 4 SoS 12
Vital signs: 9-1 R/N, non-con SoS 13, 4-1 vs. RPI Top 50, 10-1 vs. RPI Top 100
Quality wins: New Mexico, LSU? N-BYU? @EMU?
Bad losses: none
The issue is quality wins. But aside from that, everything about this profile screams elite.
Bubble
St Louis (16-2) (4-0) RPI 28 SoS 94
Vital signs: 7-1 R/N, non-con SoS 115, 1-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 3-2 vs. RPI Top 100
Quality wins: @Dayton, Indiana St?
Bad losses: both losses are to top-10 teams
No elite wins, no worries as long as you don't absorb anything resembling a bad loss.
VCU (14-4) (2-1) RPI 46 SoS 88
Vital signs: 5-4 R/N, non-con SoS 98, 1-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 2-4 vs. RPI Top 100
Quality wins: @Virginia, @Belmont?
Bad losses: I guess @UNI counts
@Virginia is a lynchpin win that makes VCU safe for the time being. Not as much heft as you'd think in this schedule.
George Washington (15-3) (3-1) RPI 21 SoS 70
Vital signs: 6-3 R/N, non-con SoS 104, 1-2 vs. RPI top 50, 6-3 vs. RPI Top 100
Quality wins: N-Creighton, VCU, N-Maryland? @Manhattan?
Bad losses: N-Marquette is souring, @LaSalle?
Shiny RPI and a couple higher-end wins mean they're actually in decent shape for the time being.
Dayton (13-5) (1-2) RPI 50 SoS 60
Vital signs: 5-3 R/N, non-con SoS 74, 2-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 3-3 vs. RPI Top 100
Quality wins: Gonzaga and Cal in Maui, @Ole Miss?
Bad losses: @Illinois St, USC, @Richmond even?
Maui is getting them some mileage. They need to complete the job in A-10 play, but I actually like their chances.
NIT watch
Richmond (12-6) (2-1) RPI 61 SoS 85
St Joseph's (12-5) (2-1) RPI 63 SoS 102
LaSalle (11-6) (3-0) RPI 64 SoS 84 - three profiles somewhat barren, but A-10 play offers the chance for quality wins, and if they get them, they're in bubble play
EIEIO watch
St Bonaventure (11-7) (1-3) RPI 92 SoS 118
Nope
Rhode Island (9-9) (1-3) RPI 153 SoS 120
George Mason (7-11) (0-4) RPI 170 SoS 69
Fordham (7-10) (0-4) RPI 204 SoS 159
Duquesne (8-8) (1-3) RPI 254 SoS 304
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