Lockbox - teams that are locks for the NCAA tournament
Bubble - self-explanatory
NIT - teams off the NCAA bubble for now, probable NIT teams
EIEIO - my affectionate term for the CBI and CIT, teams that are likely to get postseason bids at least
Abbreviations:
R/N = road plus neutral record
Part 1 - the top midwest-based leagues
Big 12
Lockbox
Kansas (13-4) (4-0) RPI 1 SoS 1
Vital signs: 6-3 R/N, non-con SoS 1, 7-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 9-4 vs. RPI Top 100
Quality wins: @Iowa St, Okla St, N-Duke, N-New Mexico, @Okla, and so on and on
Bad losses: none, unless you think any home loss is a sin, and if so, San Diego St
Notice the nice shiny SoS of 1 and 7 top 50 wins. This is still the resume of a potential 1 seed despite 4 losses. Really, they're a 2 seed, but they lost to 2 teams on my 2 line (Florida, SDSU), so I have them as a 3 seed as I type this.
Oklahoma St (15-3) (3-2) RPI 13 SoS 33
Vital signs: 6-3 R/N, non-con SoS 79, 3-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 7-3 vs. RPI Top 100
Quality wins: N-Colorado, Memphis, Texas, N-La Tech
Bad losses: perhaps @Kansas St if you're talking about wanting a 1 seed
Only issue of note is that the signature road win right now is West Virginia (they have a few neutral court wins though). They'll need some heft in the resume, eventually.
Iowa St (14-3) (2-3) RPI 10 SoS 8
Vital signs: 6-2 R/N, non-con SoS 46, 4-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 6-3 vs. RPI Top 100
Quality wins: Iowa, Michigan, Baylor, @BYU?, N-Boise?
Bad losses: none, unless you count @Okla and @Texas
The Big 12 will beat people up. Those wins over B1G schools could be useful for head-to-head purposes in March. This resume has a long way to go before being finished.
Oklahoma (14-4) (3-2) RPI 16 SoS 6
Vital signs: 6-2 R/N, non-con SoS 54, 3-3 vs. RPI Top 10, 5-4 vs. RPI Top 100
Quality wins: Iowa St, @Baylor, @Texas
Bad losses: home to La Tech, perhaps
The issue here could be a lack of non-con heft, which means they do need to do some work in conference play. Or did, because they've started out OK. Tenative lock for now.
Baylor (11-4) (1-3) RPI 42 SoS 28
Vital signs: 2-3 R/N, non-con SoS 41, 3-3 vs. RPI Top 100, 3-3 vs. RPI Top 100
Quality wins: Kentucky, Colorado and Dayton in Maui
Bad losses: @Texas Tech, Oklahoma?
Dropping two marginal games in a row, but they're still a lock for now. Wins over UK and Colorado will have shelf life, but they'll have to work to get back to .500 in Big 12 play, which will be enough. There's not a lot of depth of quality wins in this resume, as of yet.
Bubble
Kansas St (14-4) (4-1) RPI 34 SoS 31
Vital signs: 3-3 R/N, non-con SoS 94, 4-1 vs. RPI Top 50, 6-2 vs. RPI Top 100
Quality wins: Ok State and Oklahoma, Gonzaga and G. Washington
Bad losses: N-Charlotte and N. Colorado, also the jury is still out on both
Frankly, I think they'll be fine long term, as evidenced by that mark against the RPI Top 50. Right now, though, the signature R/N win is Long Beach St. They'll have to fix that eventually.
Texas (14-4) (3-2) RPI 45 SoS 45
Vital signs: 4-2 R/N, non-con SoS 126, 1-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 5-4 vs. RPI Top 100
Quality wins: Iowa St, @North Carolina, Mercer?
Bad losses: none, for a bubble team
The one true bubble case right now. Who knows how valuable the @UNC win will turn out. For now, Texas will need to churn out a few wins against the top 6 to be safe. They already did drop a swing game - home to Oklahoma.
EIEIO watch
West Virginia (10-8) (2-3) RPI 99 SoS 62 - if an 8th Big 12 team makes the postseason, it'll be WVU, but look for this record to slip away
Nope
Texas Tech (10-8) (2-3) RPI 113 SoS 77
TCU (8-8) (0-5) RPI 186 SoS 146
B1G
Lockbox
Michigan St (17-1) (6-0) RPI 7 SoS 22
Vital signs: 9-0 R/N, non-con SoS 56, 5-0 vs. RPI Top 50, 7-1 vs. RPI Top 100
Quality wins: N-Kentucky, Ohio St, Oklahoma, @Texas, etc etc
Bad losses: home to UNC is a dagger if you want a 1 seed
Frankly, 9-0 R/N and 5-0 vs. Top 50 will put you in line with a 1 seed, period.
Wisconsin (16-2) (3-2) RPI 5 SoS 3
Vital signs: 6-1 R/N, non-con SoS 14, 5-1 vs. RPI Top 50, 8-2 vs. RPI Top 100
Quality wins: Florida, @Virginia, Iowa, N-St Louis, Illinois
Bad losses: @Indiana could look bad over time
That Florida win is a useful piece for positioning purposes in the S-Curve. The computer profile says they're a clear candidate for a 1 seed still. Just stabilize the ship.
Iowa (15-3) (4-1) RPI 26 SoS 80
Vital signs: 4-3 R/N, non-con SoS 192, 4-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 6-3 vs. RPI Top 100
Quality wins: @Ohio St, Minnesota, N-Xavier
Bad losses: none, period
You see the red flag up there. 192 non-con SoS. That's a dagger towards getting a really high seed. They will need to start to stockpile quality wins at some point - only 3 Top 90 wins at the moment.
Ohio St (15-3) (2-3) RPI 12 SoS 15
Vital signs: 3-2 R/N, non-con SoS 57, 1-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 8-3 vs. RPI Top 100
Quality wins: um, NDSU? Maryland? Ohio? All at home?
Bad losses: I guess @Minnesota
Their issue is glaring. No real wins to lean on yet. They need wins over tournament teams, and a few of them. They are not out of the woods yet for an at-large bid because of this, but they have plenty of chances to rectify this. The non-con SoS is a red herring a little bit - it's good more because of bad team avoidance than playing elite teams (although Notre Dame and Marquette wins don't have great value anymore).
Michigan (13-4) (5-0) RPI 27 SoS 40
Vital signs: 6-3 R/N, non-con SoS 75, 3-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 5-3 vs. RPI Top 100
Quality wins: @Wisconsin, N-Florida St, @Minnesota
Bad losses: N-Charlotte is souring
They should be fine long-term, and they have a key lynchpin, @Wisky, to lean on.
Bubble
Minnesota (13-5) (3-3) RPI 33 SoS 16
Vital signs: 2-4 R/N, non-con SoS 101, 2-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 4-5 vs. RPI Top 100
Quality wins: Ohio St, Florida St
Bad losses: does N-Arkansas count?
They have a couple of home wins better than many bubble teams. The key is if they can steal a signature road win or two. Plenty of opportunities await, though.
Indiana (12-6) (2-3) RPI 78 SoS 74
Vital signs: 2-4 R/N, non-con SoS 169, 1-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 2-4 vs. RPI Top 100
Quality wins: Wisconsin....and that's about it
Bad losses: Northwestern. Also N-Notre Dame doesn't look so hot right now
Wisconsin is a great trump card. But in order to be able to use it, the rest of the resume has to be close. Right now, it isn't.
Illinois (13-6) (2-4) RPI 59 SoS 54
Vital signs: 4-4 R/N, non-con SoS 138, 0-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 2-4 vs. RPI Top 100
Quality wins: N-Missouri, Indiana
Bad losses: @Northwestern, @Georgia Tech, Purdue
Pretty simple. Start getting high-end wins. N-Missouri is a start. Need more.
EIEIO watch
Purdue (13-5) (3-2) RPI 87 SoS 138 - this record will evaporate over time, but they have a fighting chance of being over .500
Nope
Northwestern (9-10) (2-4) RPI 131 SoS 55Nebraska (8-8) (0-4) RPI 90 SoS 27
Penn St (9-10) (0-6) RPI 142 SoS 63
MVC
Lockbox
Wichita St (18-0) (6-0) RPI 9 SoS 67
Vital signs: 7-0 R/N, non-con SoS 52, 2-0 vs. RPI Top 50, 8-0 vs. RPI Top 100
Quality wins: @St Louis, Tennessee, N-BYU
Bad losses: nope
Lockbox.
Bubble
Indiana St (12-4) (5-1) RPI 53 SoS 130
Vital signs: 6-4 R/N, non-con SoS 210, 0-2 vs. RPI Top 50, 3-3 vs. RPI Top 100
Quality wins: @Notre Dame? Belmont? Missouri St?
Bad losses: N-Tulsa
Two daggers in this profile: non-con SoS that is sub-200, and no top 50 wins. Best OOC win is @Notre Dame or Belmont, depending on your mileage. The problem is Wichita is their only real hope at a quality win the rest of the season. They'll need to compile in the meantime. Doesn't look bright, but they're not dead yet.
NIT watch
Northern Iowa (9-8) (4-2) RPI 71 SoS 44 - they've got a home win over VCU and a non-con SoS of 25 in their favor
Missouri St (11-6) (2-4) RPI 74 SoS 112 - bad start to league play has buried them
EIEIO watch
Illinois St (10-7) (4-2) RPI 107 SoS 108
Drake (9-8) (1-5) RPI 163 SoS 180 - I expect Drake to fall adrift from postseason play
Nope
Evansville (7-10) (2-4) RPI 216 SoS 189
Bradley (7-12) (2-4) RPI 239 SoS 126
Southern Illinois (5-13) (2-4) RPI 283 SoS 199
Loyola (6-11) (2-4) RPI 301 SoS 274
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