Monday, January 27, 2014

1/27 bracket and thoughts

This is probably the last week where I can definitely say there's expectation bias still in the bracket (i.e., a bit of projecting forward).  We're pretty close to the full conversion process where the bracket is 100% about previous results.  There's still a hair of projection (especially on the 4 line) for now.

Analysis!
1) The race on the top 2 lines are tricky.  Kansas is quicky building a signature resume; only problem is they lost to 2 teams directly ahead of them on the S-Curve:  Florida and SDSU.  They're kind of landlocked right now.  The beneficiary is Wichita St, who is a bit clear of that gaggle.
2) The race to the protected seeds and to avoid getting shipped west is underway.  For example, this time, Duke, despite being a protected seed, loses out on Raleigh and gets shipped to San Diego instead.
3) The 3 line is where the most volatility is.  I'm still kind of waiting to see if Okla St or Iowa St can distinguish themselves in the Big 12.  It's likely that 3 line will have the American winner, B1G runner up, Big 12 runner up, and a wildcard.
4) UMass is a team I wanted to find room for on the 4 line, but still can't.  I still think the eye test has some value with the committee, and those four teams on the 4 line all have it.
5) A bit deeper, look at the Pac-12.  All their seeds after Arizona are 6, 10, 10, 11, 12, 12, and falling.  That probably rectifies itself eventually.
6) Meanwhile, in the B1G, we have a clear top 6, and I'm beginning to think we're not going to have a bubble in that conference behind them.
7) Right now, I've got 7 Big 12 teams.  Still think that reduces to 6 by March, but still not confident on who it would be.
8) The SEC is terrible.


WEST
@San Diego
1) Arizona (20-0) vs. 16) Utah Valley (10-7)
8) Gonzaga (17-3) vs. 9) Kansas St (14-6)
@Spokane
4) Creighton (17-3) vs. 13) Green Bay (14-3)
5) UMass (17-2) vs. 12) SMU (16-4)
@Raleigh
3) Michigan (15-4) vs. 14) Georgia St (12-6)
6) Oklahoma (16-4) vs. 11) Missouri (15-4)
@Spokane
2) San Diego St (16-1) vs. 15) UC Irvine (11-8)
7) UConn (16-4) vs. 10) North Carolina (12-7)

MIDWEST
@Orlando
1) Florida (17-2) vs. 16) Stony Brook (14-6)
8) Xavier (14-5) vs. 9) New Mexico (15-4)
@San Diego
4) Duke (16-4) vs. 13) Delaware (14-7)
5) Cincinnati (19-2) vs. 12) Toledo (16-2)
@San Antonio
3) Oklahoma St (16-3) vs. 14) Northern Colorado (11-4)
6) UCLA (16-4) vs. 11) Southern Miss (16-3)
@Milwaukee
2) Michigan St (18-2) vs. 15) IPFW (13-6)
7) St Louis (17-2) vs. 10) Baylor (11-6)

SOUTH
@St Louis
1) Wichita St (20-0) vs. 16) Chattanooga (11-8)/Southern (7-10)
8) Florida St (13-6) vs. 9) Minnesota (14-6)
@Orlando
4) Louisville (17-3) vs. 13) Belmont (15-7)
5) Pittsburgh (18-2) vs. 12) Harvard (14-3)
@Milwaukee
3) Wisconsin (17-3) vs. 14) Canisius (14-6)
6) Virginia (15-5) vs. 11) Tennessee (11-7)/Arizona St (15-5)
@St Louis
2) Kansas (15-4) vs. 15) North Carolina Central (11-5)
7) VCU (16-4) vs. 10) Colorado (15-6)

EAST
@Buffalo
1) Syracuse (19-0) vs. 16) Robert Morris (11-10)/UNC Asheville (7-10)
8) Texas (16-4) vs. 9) George Washington (16-3)
@Raleigh
4) Kentucky (15-4) vs. 13) Mercer (14-5)
5) Iowa (15-4) vs. 12) Providence (15-5)/Stanford (13-6)
@San Antonio
3) Iowa St (15-3) vs. 14) Stephen F Austin (16-2)
6) Ohio St (16-4) vs. 11) California (14-6)
@Buffalo
2) Villanova (17-2) vs. 15) American (12-7)
7) Memphis (14-4) vs. 10) Oregon (14-5)

Procedural bumps:
Providence from 11 to 12
Arizona St from 12 to a 11
SMU from 11 to 12
Southern Miss from 12 to 11


Break it down!
Big 12 7
Pac 12 7
B1G 6
ACC 6
American 5
A-10 4
SEC 4
Big East 4
MW 2

No comments: